Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Kenny, I moved to MD was I was 3 in 1972 and stayed until 1992 before I left the area for 7 years. Honestly, no years in particular stick out in my mind. We had quite a few tornado watches in the 80's that generally never materialized. For some reason I think that we used to get a lot of squall line type storms in the 80's where a line would basically extend from N Frederick Co in MD down to S Loudon in VA and come through the entire area as a line with good winds and lightening show. Many memories of watching the dark line fly in with greenish or yellowish skies behind with the rain and lightening. Now it seems that cells are more common and more localized wind. I may be totally incorrect in what I remember back in the 80's but we don't seem to get the big squall lines like we used to. Jul 25th was by far the worst imby in my lifetime. The 2002 Laplata and 2001 College Park tornados were pretty bad and Frostburg got rocked back in 1998. I'm not really interested in getting close and personal with a tornado. At least not near my house. lol Luckily F2+ tornadoes are quite rare in our state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well I'm not expecting anything like 2008 with like 4 moderate risk days but I think we might have a decent day or two (decent meaning widespread activity). I'm going to try to dig up (unless you already have one) a 500mb map from April 28, 2002 (La Plata) - and other sig events. I don't necessarily know if there's a "perfect" 500mb look like there is with winter storms. There's no doubt more favorable setups but I think we can do fairly well with a mix of different things - usually we just get screwed by some cloud cover or other small pieces of the puzzle. I started to build a database off tornado events last yr but did not keep interest in it long so I did not get that far and had mainly based it off Grazulis' book which only covers f2+ and only up to like 1995. I did add in a few other memorable events like La Plata/College Park. I made some composites early in the process. I guess I should go back to it. Maybe I can pass you the spreadsheet and we can work on it together if you're interested. Here are some events that hit the D.C. area specifically -- I have others that hit more in n md, s va, de, pa etc. They're all long ago tho.. I started at the beginning of the record period in the book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nice info Ian and Bob! Ian, some of those look insanely anomalous (it's clear why they produced exciting events). And if you want any help on that I'd be glad to help in any way possible (although I'm not sure how much I can add). I'm just now getting into a bit of the research type stuff. It's during these boring periods when I usually start up on something new while there's nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Probably the best scenario for widespread tornado outbreaks in the region is actually from tropical cyclones. 9/17/04 was Ivan as a TD passing through the region-- the single-most prolific tornado outbreak ever in our region. I remember the wall-to-wall coverage on every local news station, with footage of a wedge-looking tornado on the ground at Opal, VA, on NBC4. That night included the IAD tower evacuation as one of the tornadoes was visible from the airport and hit the AOL office. The map from LWX for the date is crazy: David's 9/79 tornado outbreak also had a high impact in our region, with an F3 in Fairfax county causing some of the most extreme damage ever recorded in the closer in DC metro. Able, 1952, also produced significant metro-region tornadoes. Both were still tropical storms as they passed through our area. For a major non-Tropical Cyclone induced tornado outbreak in our area-- definitely look up 10/18/1990. F2 in downtown Baltimore and other F2's across the region. I remember late 8/03 also being back-to-back severe weather in MoCo.. lots of trees down and power outages in two consecutive days of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Probably the best scenario for widespread tornado outbreaks in the region is actually from tropical cyclones. *snip* Excellent information!!! I would agree - tropical cyclones are definitely "best" case scenarios if you're looking for tornadoes in our area. I don't think the Ellinwood would like that type though as they usually move pretty fast and are hard to chase. It's tough to get tornadoes around here the "hard" way (La Plata) and (College Park) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nice info Ian and Bob! Ian, some of those look insanely anomalous (it's clear why they produced exciting events). And if you want any help on that I'd be glad to help in any way possible (although I'm not sure how much I can add). I'm just now getting into a bit of the research type stuff. It's during these boring periods when I usually start up on something new while there's nothing to track. It's mostly just data mining at least initially. A lot of times I don't even really know what I'm looking for and it just shows up as you go. I'll send you a PM at some pt soon. I've barely scratched the surface probably in the larger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Probably the best scenario for widespread tornado outbreaks in the region is actually from tropical cyclones. 9/17/04 was Ivan as a TD passing through the region-- the single-most prolific tornado outbreak ever in our region. I remember the wall-to-wall coverage on every local news station, with footage of a wedge-looking tornado on the ground at Opal, VA, on NBC4. That night included the IAD tower evacuation as one of the tornadoes was visible from the airport and hit the AOL office. The map from LWX for the date is crazy: though i think the apps locally act sorta like the rockies on a much lesser level this area is no tornado magnet for sure. ivan scenarios seem like our best bet obviously. i included a 500 map from it above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's mostly just data mining at least initially. A lot of times I don't even really know what I'm looking for and it just shows up as you go. I'll send you a PM at some pt soon. I've barely scratched the surface probably in the larger picture. Sounds good. One place I've found to be very useful is this one http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/searchindex.html If you don't already use it it's a pretty good resource. Doesn't go back before 2000, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 This is off topic but has anyone had any experience with this product - http://www.mobilecrunch.com/2010/08/30/clearwire-launches-4g-pay-as-you-go-internet/ Looking into ways to avoid mobile internet contracts so that I can just grab service for the summer/spring severe months. I would get my data from my phone but I like the idea of having a full screen computer accessible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 This is off topic but has anyone had any experience with this product - http://www.mobilecru...ou-go-internet/ Looking into ways to avoid mobile internet contracts so that I can just grab service for the summer/spring severe months. I would get my data from my phone but I like the idea of having a full screen computer accessible. looks like their coverage area would be an issue if you're thinking of using it for chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 looks like their coverage area would be an issue if you're thinking of using it for chasing Yeah I agree. Only extends up to around Gaithersburg and nothing out near Frederick. It'd be good for some local stuff though like if I wasn't going too far and wanted to station myself at a parking lot. Seems like a pretty good deal and perhaps they'll expand soon. 79.99 for one device start up fee and then 5 bucks each day I need it. I like the idea of not paying for it if I'm not using it. I think I'll wait until spring gets in motion and then decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Excellent information!!! I would agree - tropical cyclones are definitely "best" case scenarios if you're looking for tornadoes in our area. I don't think the Ellinwood would like that type though as they usually move pretty fast and are hard to chase. It's tough to get tornadoes around here the "hard" way (La Plata) and (College Park) Most definitely... it's even harder to chase tornadoes in a hurricane than it is the way Jason and I do it. Probably the best way to get an outbreak, but getting a hurricane in our area is a lot rarer than a mid-latitude system That and I think the region got lucky having as many tornadoes as we did with Ivan... i.e. good luck trying to get a repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Most definitely... it's even harder to chase tornadoes in a hurricane than it is the way Jason and I do it. Probably the best way to get an outbreak, but getting a hurricane in our area is a lot rarer than a mid-latitude system That and I think the region got lucky having as many tornadoes as we did with Ivan... i.e. good luck trying to get a repeat Do you have any thoughts on that mobile internet thingy I posted a few posts up? Not looking to go as far as you guys do (maybe just to a better area to take pics than my area). So not sure I need 100% coverage but it does look a little thin. Don't want to get into a contract with the stupid cell companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Do you have any thoughts on that mobile internet thingy I posted a few posts up? Not looking to go as far as you guys do (maybe just to a better area to take pics than my area). So not sure I need 100% coverage but it does look a little thin. Don't want to get into a contract with the stupid cell companies. There's gotta be some phone plans that let you activate a mobile hot-spot on a month-to-month basis... would probably be the easiest route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 There's gotta be some phone plans that let you activate a mobile hot-spot on a month-to-month basis... would probably be the easiest route. Yeah I'm looking at all the options right now. The only thing about that is - activating for a whole month when I might only need it for 1-2 days out of a given month seems pricey. But that might be the best option. I don't like that Rover doesn't allow you to have a 3G to fall back on. It's either 4G or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah I'm looking at all the options right now. The only thing about that is - activating for a whole month when I might only need it for 1-2 days out of a given month seems pricey. But that might be the best option. I don't like that Rover doesn't allow you to have a 3G to fall back on. It's either 4G or nothing. I paid 50 bucks for the tether app for my blackberry. Works pretty good whenever I need internet on the laptop outside of a hotspot. 3g verizon isn't blazing or anything but 50 bucks for life aint bad at all. My wife has a verizon aircard for her laptop because she's on the road alot. I really can't tell that much of a diff in speed between the 2 and the aircard is like 60 bucks a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I paid 50 bucks for the tether app for my blackberry. Works pretty good whenever I need internet on the laptop outside of a hotspot. 3g verizon isn't blazing or anything but 50 bucks for life aint bad at all. My wife has a verizon aircard for her laptop because she's on the road alot. I really can't tell that much of a diff in speed between the 2 and the aircard is like 60 bucks a month. Sprint took away tethering options I thought about that when I got my Blackberry but Sprint has disabled that feature and I'm not sure I want to do any hacking or anything to make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Are you sure? Can't you just go to the app store and download the tether program? Sprint won't even know what you're doing unless you gobble up loads of bandwith. If you're just using it once in a while it won't even be on the radar. You can go to the app store and download a trial and see if it even works before paying any money. I'm not supposed to do it with verizon either but I don't really care. They squeeze my wallet plenty every month between mobile, fios, and home phone. I have zero guilt grabbing a couple gigs here and there without paying a ridiculous monthly tether fee because I only use the tether like 3 times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Are you sure? Can't you just go to the app store and download the tether program? Sprint won't even know what you're doing unless you gobble up loads of bandwith. If you're just using it once in a while it won't even be on the radar. You can go to the app store and download a trial and see if it even works before paying any money. I'm not supposed to do it with verizon either but I don't really care. They squeeze my wallet plenty every month between mobile, fios, and home phone. I have zero guilt grabbing a couple gigs here and there without paying a ridiculous monthly tether fee because I only use the tether like 3 times a year. I should look into it. Thanks for the tip! I do know that I'm limited to 5GB per month but I think just loading some Level 2 data every now and then might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Here is an interesting video that was produced by the Baltimore Police featuring the Baltimore tornado last year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I started to build a database off tornado events last yr but did not keep interest in it long so I did not get that far and had mainly based it off Grazulis' book which only covers f2+ and only up to like 1995. I did add in a few other memorable events like La Plata/College Park. I made some composites early in the process. I guess I should go back to it. Maybe I can pass you the spreadsheet and we can work on it together if you're interested. The first composite is interesting in that the mean is a positively to neutrally tilted trough. Of course it would be good to plot the dates individually to see which cases were positive, neutral, or negative tilt, but this appears to be in line with the classic setups out this way. Not that you can't get a big tornado outbreak with a negatively tilted trough, but some of the positive tilt cases have been prolific tornado producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I do suspect Ellinwood might catch that Mid-Atlantic nado this year. He's just about ready equipment wise to venture solo this year, and I don't know if I'll be doing much local chases for me due to all funds going to plains chasing and business build-up expenses. He's more than capable of going solo, forecasts are dead on. I'm suspecting however that less than active season ahead. Plenty of standard storms regionally, but not as many significant storms. However the tornado LSR prelim. will note have as much of a 'hole' around the DC region by 2011 season's end as was apparent this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I do suspect Ellinwood might catch that Mid-Atlantic nado this year. He's just about ready equipment wise to venture solo this year, and I don't know if I'll be doing much local chases for me due to all funds going to plains chasing and business build-up expenses. He's more than capable of going solo, forecasts are dead on. I'm suspecting however that less than active season ahead. Plenty of standard storms regionally, but not as many significant storms. However the tornado LSR prelim. will note have as much of a 'hole' around the DC region by 2011 season's end as was apparent this past year. Ellinwood should offer tours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ellinwood should offer tours lol Come see trees and hills! Talk to the Amish! Weave through I-95/270/70/76/81/66 traffic! Search for that elusive hilltop view! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Come see trees and hills! Talk to the Amish! Weave through I-95/270/70/76/81/66 traffic! Search for that elusive hilltop view! MidAtlStormChasing Inc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like something healthy way at the end of the GFS run. 372 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Still in fantasy range, but <3 the models this morning Could give us some severe at the end of the month. GFS showing March 1st (fcst hr 204-216). Euro is on board, but brings it through on the 28th (186-192). SFC temps from Euro are 60F-70F+, but GFS starts with a bigger cold wedge and only puts us at 50F-60F. Incredibly sexy cut-off vort going neutral/negative tilt, with an UL jet to the south that keeps us in the area of greatest UL divergence. Praying that it holds! Also not ruling out some boomers this Friday, but they may not make it north enough for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Still in fantasy range, but <3 the models this morning Could give us some severe at the end of the month. GFS showing March 1st (fcst hr 204-216). Euro is on board, but brings it through on the 28th (186-192). SFC temps from Euro are 60F-70F+, but GFS starts with a bigger cold wedge and only puts us at 50F-60F. Incredibly sexy cut-off vort going neutral/negative tilt, with an UL jet to the south that keeps us in the area of greatest UL divergence. Praying that it holds! Also not ruling out some boomers this Friday, but they may not make it north enough for most of us. Keep us updated!!! Here's to hoping for the first excitement of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ellinwood is this what you're looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ellinwood is this what you're looking at? Ohhhhhhhhh yeaaaaaaaaaah Remember this? Best guess (for any time of the year) would be (1) high pressure to the E two days prior, drawing up warm, moist air from the Gulf the two days before, with (2) a potent low w/ the vort. max in a negatively-tilted trough coming out of the base of a trough moving ENE from (approx.) OK->OH->PA/NY. Aiding this would be (3) upper level jet(s) in a couple of different spots (either putting us in the left-exit or right-entrance part of the jet for greatest UL divergence). Well... 2/3 of it is there (the warming period isn't as nice as I would like ahead of the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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