Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Just out of curiosity, how many of the severe weather lovers are home owners? statistically, truly severe weather does not impact any one location that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 statistically, truly severe weather does not impact any one location that often. I guess that's true, Ian, but all it takes is once. I don't really fear for my safety, which maybe is stupid, but I really worry about my home. I have about 15 or so trees within 50 to 75 feet of my house, all anywhere from 65 to about 80 feet in height (probably a couple even higher) and all about 15 to 20 inches in diameter. I'd like to have some of them removed, but they are beautiful and the cost to remove them would be very high. They are truly awesome trees, especially when you look at them and imagine what they would do to a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I guess that's true, Ian, but all it takes is once. I don't really fear for my safety, which maybe is stupid, but I really worry about my home. I have about 15 or so trees within 50 to 75 feet of my house, all anywhere from 65 to about 80 feet in height (probably a couple even higher) and all about 15 to 20 inches in diameter. I'd like to have some of them removed, but they are beautiful and the cost to remove them would be very high. They are truly awesome trees, especially when you look at them and imagine what they would do to a house. You might consider finding a good arborist/tree expert to give them a good vetting to assess your risk; if you find a good consultant the fee shouldn't be too much (probably on par with one sizable tree removal)--and not all trees or tree species are close to equal when it comes to wind throw or storm damage threat. I have a ~30" white oak about 25 ft from my house that doesn't worry me at all--but there's a 18" Va pine about 60 feet from my house that I've been more than a tad concerned about for years (within the wood line so I'm reasonably certain it won't be able to fall my way--I think; but it will fall one day I'm sure). No guarantees with any tree in a given storm, but if you like the trees as you appear to, good advice helps--it'll take you 40+ years to replace them if you cut them down in haste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Man I was just out running to the store and the storms to my north have amazing clouds - even some pileus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Maybe a ineresting start to the night? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0798.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 my area of interest from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Left work at KHGR an hour to early. Would have seen a tornado. There were some intersting looking clouds on the way home though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Not often you get a tornado reported on ground warning around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I like today's severe weather chances better than yesterday's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I like today's severe weather chances better than yesterday's... May I inquire as to why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 May I inquire as to why? Storm relative winds at the SFC are a bit better (SE winds w/ NW/N-moving storms), upper-level core is (IMO) in better position for forcing, good lapse rate zone in the lower levels is a bit deeper (leading to slightly better CAPE), though deep-layer directional shear has waned a bit. EDIT: Corrected storm motion from N/NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Storm relative winds at the SFC are a bit better (SE winds w/ N/NE-moving storms), upper-level core is (IMO) in better position for forcing, good lapse rate zone in the lower levels is a bit deeper (leading to slightly better CAPE), though deep-layer directional shear has waned a bit. I guess that supports it, I was just assuming by "Severe" you meant tornado, and I don't see much of that with the lack of shear. Though there still are boundaries about that could spin up one or two. I just don't see much else severe wise, small hail maybe, but I don't see the possibility for strong enough updrafts to get much over the severe limit, and there's no wind max to speak of to be transported down so the wind threat is going to be extremely isolated to storms gusting out. Though if we do manage to get that little pocket of cold at 500 to come our way this afternoon, could be good for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I guess that supports it, I was just assuming by "Severe" you meant tornado, and I don't see much of that with the lack of shear. Though there still are boundaries about that could spin up one or two. I just don't see much else severe wise, small hail maybe, but I don't see the possibility for strong enough updrafts to get much over the severe limit, and there's no wind max to speak of to be transported down so the wind threat is going to be extremely isolated to storms gusting out. Though if we do manage to get that little pocket of cold at 500 to come our way this afternoon, could be good for some fun. We'll have to wait and see... I like the RUC's idea of putting some organized stuff together in the early evening as the UL forcing tries to improve the lapse rates over northern VA and MD. NAM is also advertising a stronger forced line/cluster in the early evening. I only have to beat 6 reports (for the region) from yesterday to verify my forecast... let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 maryland tornadic storm vid: http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=10150193696934985&oid=300425527010&comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 You might consider finding a good arborist/tree expert to give them a good vetting to assess your risk; if you find a good consultant the fee shouldn't be too much (probably on par with one sizable tree removal)--and not all trees or tree species are close to equal when it comes to wind throw or storm damage threat. I have a ~30" white oak about 25 ft from my house that doesn't worry me at all--but there's a 18" Va pine about 60 feet from my house that I've been more than a tad concerned about for years (within the wood line so I'm reasonably certain it won't be able to fall my way--I think; but it will fall one day I'm sure). No guarantees with any tree in a given storm, but if you like the trees as you appear to, good advice helps--it'll take you 40+ years to replace them if you cut them down in haste. That's an excellent suggestion. The majority of the trees that are a threat are ash trees. I don't worry too much about them. A close second, however, are cherry trees. These have proven to be potential problems. During the night of the severe outbreak in April, my neighbor had two that were both about 50 footers and 18 in diameter come down. Lucky for him, they were about 600 feet from his house. The scary thing is that once down, it was clearly evident that they were both rotten at their base. In fact, it was hard to see how they had remained standing at all. That's what scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 maryland tornadic storm vid: http://www.facebook....527010 Nice structure... the title has "tornado" in it, and the description says "funnel cloud," which I found a little odd. Looks like the actual structure isn't really touching the ground in the video, though... the hill deceives the eye into thinking that it's the true horizon. I couldn't identify any rapid rotation within the lowering on the back edge of the wall cloud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Nice structure... the title has "tornado" in it, and the description says "funnel cloud," which I found a little odd. Looks like the actual structure isn't really touching the ground in the video, though... the hill deceives the eye into thinking that it's the true horizon. I couldn't identify any rapid rotation within the lowering on the back edge of the wall cloud... yeah that was my take too with this vid. though i guess it may have touched down earlier/later.. trained spotter report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 WV/MD panhandles are #winning with TORs over the last couple of days: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1123 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1145 AM EDT * AT 1120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JOHNSONS MILL...OR 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF JONES SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JOHNSONS MILL... NEW HOPE... VALLEY VIEW... SPOHRS CROSSROADS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 WV/MD panhandles are #winning with TORs over the last couple of days: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1123 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011 Well, you are well on your way to verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Watch possibly coming soon... dunno if it will be a tor or stw... md states potential for isolated tornadoes and better chance for large hail compared to yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Hey Ellinwood would this translate more N/E with another MD or not for later today into tonight or will it continue to shift west and N/W overtime today? I might have another chase on my hands then today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Hey Ellinwood would this translate more N/E with another MD or not for later today into tonight or will it continue to shift west and N/W overtime today? I might have another chase on my hands then today. The threat's going to be, IMO, just in NoVA/NoMD/SW PA and in the MD/WV panhandles... kind of what the Meso. Disc. image looks like, but with the extreme NW and southern edges of it trimmed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The threat's going to be, IMO, just in NoVA/NoMD/SW PA and in the MD/WV panhandles... kind of what the Meso. Disc. image looks like, but with the extreme NW and southern edges of it trimmed off. Thank you so no chase for me, way too-to late for me to get going anywhere when i am done work in 3 hours. I wouldnt make it. Whats your thinking for tomorrow also? I know i screwed up on my chase down towards DC on sunday, I am looking to find a way to replace that bad move by a good move and finally get some good footage of storms. So far I screwed up alot and dont have much filmed at all this year. Just hopefully that can change and turn around quickly for me. I know i am a pain in the ass at times and i am sorry for being so, but at least i get out there and try to chase instead of staying still and not getting a single thing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Thank you so no chase for me, way too-to late for me to get going anywhere when i am done work in 3 hours. I wouldnt make it. Whats your thinking for tomorrow also? I know i screwed up on my chase down towards DC on sunday, I am looking to find a way to replace that bad move by a good move and finally get some good footage of storms. So far I screwed up alot and dont have much filmed at all this year. Just hopefully that can change and turn around quickly for me. I know i am a pain in the ass at times and i am sorry for being so, but at least i get out there and try to chase instead of staying still and not getting a single thing right? I'll discuss tomorrow... tomorrow Bust or not, getting out there to chase is a step in the right direction (so long as you have the funds and are safe). Getting good footage in the Mid-Atlantic is hard, so don't be bummed if it takes awhile. ----- SPC upgraded to 5% TOR risk... I might just have to get out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'll discuss tomorrow... tomorrow Bust or not, getting out there to chase is a step in the right direction (so long as you have the funds and are safe). Getting good footage in the Mid-Atlantic is hard, so don't be bummed if it takes awhile. ----- SPC upgraded to 5% TOR risk... I might just have to get out there today. I know i dont have the best reputation on this board, I have at times tried to right that ship. Funds are tight yes, but for great footage it costs anyhow. I take things too-to personal and dont mean to, i am just ultra passionate and have a short fuse. I dont think by me doing what i do does make me look or seem better then some members of this message board, but i try to be a good person and do good things. I am trying really hard. And I'd love to have something epic to film and share with you's on here. I think it would make alot very happy if i did get something epic not only for myself but for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031- 033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-510-190100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0305.110518T1655Z-110519T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S SOMERSET ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Thinking about heading a couple of counties west to get into VA... I'll give it a bit more time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The threat's going to be, IMO, just in NoVA/NoMD/SW PA and in the MD/WV panhandles... kind of what the Meso. Disc. image looks like, but with the extreme NW and southern edges of it trimmed off. TOR warn just N of Philly... fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 TOR warn just N of Philly... fail! If i wasnt at work, i would have been up in Willow Grove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 looks like the bands want to surround me yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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