Ian Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I think he wants to experience the DC split. Looks like it might fail today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Bethesda sometimes has a pretty messed up perception of the world lol. Guess he hasn't met some of the older folks on here that can have a plenty good time. His life is clearly over and not fun anymore after his 21st birthday. No more good times. Personally, I thought it was a reference to 2012 and all of that. You can't just indulge in that stuff though, there is so much more.... Sorry, back on topic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yes and I am near dc 30 miles Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Bethesda sometimes has a pretty messed up perception of the world thanks, greatly appriciated Pouring in Germantown with some thunder, yards are flooding a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 i hear some thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Slight Risk fail... what are ya doing, SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 5% tornado risk today on the day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 5% tornado risk today on the day 1 outlook. I lol'd when I saw it. Could see a smaller 2%, but not 5%. We might get a couple of quick spin-ups embedded within a line/cluster of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 I lol'd when I saw it. Could see a smaller 2%, but not 5%. We might get a couple of quick spin-ups embedded within a line/cluster of storms. Yeah - it doesn't really have the tornado feel out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yeah - it doesn't really have the tornado feel out there lol update the thread subtitle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 update the thread subtitle... Done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Lots of clearing occuring central VA and southward. Should up the instability nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 If there are tornadoes today, I'm betting it would be along the line of storms moving up from VA... decent SFC wind convergence along the occluded front there, with a tongue of instability getting pulled in with the moisture. Other cells may pop up, but I would imagine that it would be much more difficult for them to gain rotation if they weren't positioned near the front. There is another subtle SFC wind convergence zone further north, but it's considerably weaker and in more stable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 If there are tornadoes today, I'm betting it would be along the line of storms moving up from VA... decent SFC wind convergence along the occluded front there, with a tongue of instability getting pulled in with the moisture. Other cells may pop up, but I would imagine that it would be much more difficult for them to gain rotation if they weren't positioned near the front. There is another subtle SFC wind convergence zone further north, but it's considerably weaker and in more stable air. I 'like' the stuff south of that, developing in the sunnier air on the north side of the upper low. Seems that stuff would have a better shot to be briefly discrete etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Updated LWX AFD as of 1045 AM THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS MORE OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS ANDSOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS IN THE MIX AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL HELP LINES OF WEAK CONVECTION TO BECOME STRONGER LATER THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL PROFILE - NEARLY SATURATED TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THESE LINES OF STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR NOT ONLY EMBEDDED HIGH RAIN RATES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BUT A LOW TORNADO THREAT...AS WELL AS LOW HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing. Pretty much my thoughts as well, which is why I'm not clamoring to get out chasing today. Of course, that will change if something pops-up locally Watching circulation try to form up on the northern end of the lines will be an interesting change of pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing. yeah i suppose. i guess im thinking more it would be something that popped there and moved north to intersect the zone mentioned. i've only watched this all with one eye anyway... i was hoping to take a weather vacation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 171514Z - 171715Z STRONGER AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AMBIENT VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING NNWWD FROM CENTRAL NC AND SURFACE VORTICITY FOCUSED INVOF TWO WARM FRONTS OVER VA...A LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL NC /40 SSW GSO/ WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING SLOWLY NWD. ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NNEWD FROM THIS LOW INTO WRN VA /NEAR SHD/ AND THEN THROUGH SERN PA TO ALONG/S OF LONG ISLAND. A SECOND WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ EXTENDED NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA AND THEN STRETCHED SEWD TO JUST N OF ORF. SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THE SECOND WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING THE WEAK CAP THAT WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE DIABATIC HEATING...MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C PER KM/ ARE TENDING TO INHIBIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH MORE PERSISTENT STORMS TODAY. AT 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS MOVING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TSTMS WERE ALSO TRACKING NWD THROUGH NERN NC WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ATTENDANT TO STRONGER DCVA WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE NC CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREAD ACROSS VA/NRN NC SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELLS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 05/17/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35147612 35957762 36187967 36248036 36738061 38117936 38717844 38917760 38697667 38357631 37607579 36277581 35147612 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yes I had gotten lazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 WU radar is picking up some mesocyclones in that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Sun has been out for 30 minutes here in Columbia... Instability rising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF STAFFORD TO 6 MILES WEST OF STAFFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STAFFORD... TRIANGLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 why are we using two threads to discuss today's weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 why are we using two threads to discuss today's weather? Cause this is the severe weather thread and the other thread is for regular weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 334 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHUYLER...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENT CREEK... AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SCHUYLER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Cause this is the severe weather thread and the other thread is for regular weather? Is there a catastrophic weather thread? We need some place to track the weather in Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 there's a bit of rotation east of culpeper, nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Just out of curiosity, how many of the severe weather lovers are home owners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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