Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 It would be funny if we had a major outbreak while Ian and Ellinwood are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 It would be funny if we had a major outbreak while Ian and Ellinwood are gone EF-4 tornado I am calling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 EF-4 tornado I am calling it I hope not - that's some mas destruction lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I hope not - that's some mas destruction lol. Over northern Fredrick co. farmland... one barn so they can verify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I hope not - that's some mas destruction lol. Of course over some random land where there is nothing,... but I was just saying that because then we could laugh at Ian/Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Of course over some random land where there is nothing,... but I was just saying that because then we could laugh at Ian/Ellinwood I wonder if Ian and Ellinwood have clashed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I wonder if Ian and Ellinwood have clashed yet Maybe Mark (who is lurking) can answer that question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I wonder if Ian and Ellinwood have clashed yet Maybe Mark (who is lurking) can answer that question! There actually hasn't been any arguing between us yet... Jason and I have yelled at each other a couple of times, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 There actually hasn't been any arguing between us yet... Jason and I have yelled at each other a couple of times, though Hope you guys are having a blast! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 This upcoming event is probably underrated but it really hasn't produced anything of value yet. The timing is exceptional though. Is it just me, or do forecast severe/tornado events here that bust tend to be systems that produced a lot over the midwest/south, and the ones that don't bust are the ones that essentially start here? The problem with the big synoptic systems that drop a lot of tornadoes elsewhere is that we end up with cloud cover and never get any heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 There actually hasn't been any arguing between us yet... Jason and I have yelled at each other a couple of times, though Good to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 LWX updated morning AFD as of 11 AM on our afternoon/evening severe threat: COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. DO THINK THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z HRRR INDICATES SW TO NE ORIENTED LINES...THE FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM 19 TO 00Z...THEN SOUTHERN HALF STARTING AT 23Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 LWX is doing a SPEC 18z RAOB release to sample the atmosphere pre-storm per the updated AFD 1630 SPC OTLK has removed the 15% hail... there is only 5% hail. Wind probs and tor probs remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 take discussion there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Intriguing mini-outbreak of tornadoes in the LWX area on April 27 and 28 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/events/svrwx_20110427_28/ We have 16 now and they are still counting. Many of these tornadoes 10:45 PM and 8 AM (12 of the 16 tornadoes were diuring this time period) I am still in the middle of making my own map (I see that LWX has already made one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 May is Probably a slow month for us imfo, with best chances Mid-Month, not liking the synpotics progged LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 May is Probably a slow month for us imfo, with best chances Mid-Month, not liking the synpotics progged LR. Well certainly seems quiet for now but stuff can change - LR modeling is not always very stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 The slight risk area for today has shifted slightly to the NE getting into central WV now. ...STRONG SFC CAPE MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG PER THE NAM...AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS...POSE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Slight risk for most of WV this afternoon and evening. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. COUPLED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TOPPING THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIZABLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAPABLE OF GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN OHIO INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE 12/21-13/03Z TIME FRAME. Edit: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued now until 7PM for northern and central WV. From CRW Latest AFD: SEVERE STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS THE CWA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE AROUND 200MB LEADING TO STRONG AND TALL STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 No talks of our slight risk today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 No talks of our slight risk today? meh I could see maybe a weak tornado happening in SE PA today... everything looks pretty marginal for our region, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 meh I could see maybe a weak tornado happening in SE PA today... everything looks pretty marginal for our region, though. Hopefully over open fields of Adams and York counties. I could get an awesome pic out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 meh I could see maybe a weak tornado happening in SE PA today... everything looks pretty marginal for our region, though. LOL you serious? Well I am ready to roll today to chase. What is your suggestion for my chase today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Hopefully over open fields of Adams and York counties. I could get an awesome pic out of that. I have Adams and York Counties in my chase book if need be for any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 LOL you serious? Well I am ready to roll today to chase. What is your suggestion for my chase today? I'd head towards an area NW of Philly by about 25-35 miles and see what the Vis Sat does during the early/mid afternoon to determine my final target. Northern MD might also be able to get in the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I'd head towards an area NW of Philly by about 25-35 miles and see what the Vis Sat does during the early/mid afternoon to determine my final target. Northern MD might also be able to get in the action. Is there easy moves out there to make quick exits to get moving along to chase if we need to move today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Sun breaking through in Adams Co now. Henry M posted rapid refresh this morning and it showed a line of severe storms over Mont Co, Frederick, Adams, York and Lancaster this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Sun breaking through in Adams Co now. Henry M posted rapid refresh this morning and it showed a line of severe storms over Mont Co, Frederick, Adams, York and Lancaster this afternoon. Yeah the HRRR is really showing alot from 4 to 9pm in that area. My friend should be here by 2 then we will roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I have Adams and York Counties in my chase book if need be for any event. FWIW, I have a view of 25 miles. You can see most of those counties from my yard. Feel free to stop by if you get board and want some quick situational awareness on where to head out too if you are in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Is there easy moves out there to make quick exits to get moving along to chase if we need to move today? I don't know... only been up there twice (just NW of Philly) for chasing. Look at some Nav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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