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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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This upcoming event is probably underrated but it really hasn't produced anything of value yet. The timing is exceptional though.

Is it just me, or do forecast severe/tornado events here that bust tend to be systems that produced a lot over the midwest/south, and the ones that don't bust are the ones that essentially start here? The problem with the big synoptic systems that drop a lot of tornadoes elsewhere is that we end up with cloud cover and never get any heating.

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LWX updated morning AFD as of 11 AM on our afternoon/evening severe threat:

COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOW

LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. DO THINK THE GREATEST

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE

INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z HRRR

INDICATES SW TO NE ORIENTED LINES...THE FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM 19 TO 00Z...THEN SOUTHERN HALF

STARTING AT 23Z.

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Intriguing mini-outbreak of tornadoes in the LWX area on April 27 and 28

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/events/svrwx_20110427_28/

We have 16 now and they are still counting. Many of these tornadoes 10:45 PM and 8 AM (12 of the 16 tornadoes were diuring this time period)

I am still in the middle of making my own map (I see that LWX has already made one)

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Slight risk for most of WV this afternoon and evening.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH

THE PERIOD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL

BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. COUPLED WITH

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TOPPING THE CREST OF

THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF A SIZABLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAPABLE OF GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT

SURFACE COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN OHIO

INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE 12/21-13/03Z TIME

FRAME.

Edit: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued now until 7PM for northern and central WV.

From CRW Latest AFD:

SEVERE STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS THE CWA

IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

HAIL. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 2000 J/KG THIS

AFTERNOON AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE AROUND 200MB LEADING TO STRONG AND TALL STORMS.

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LOL you serious? Well I am ready to roll today to chase. What is your suggestion for my chase today?

I'd head towards an area NW of Philly by about 25-35 miles and see what the Vis Sat does during the early/mid afternoon to determine my final target.

Northern MD might also be able to get in the action.

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I'd head towards an area NW of Philly by about 25-35 miles and see what the Vis Sat does during the early/mid afternoon to determine my final target.

Northern MD might also be able to get in the action.

Is there easy moves out there to make quick exits to get moving along to chase if we need to move today?

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Sun breaking through in Adams Co now. Henry M posted rapid refresh this morning and it showed a line of severe storms over Mont Co, Frederick, Adams, York and Lancaster this afternoon.

Yeah the HRRR is really showing alot from 4 to 9pm in that area. My friend should be here by 2 then we will roll.

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