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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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I think any Wed/Thur threat may end up being significantly squelched by the timing. Although, we've had some good storm events already at unfavorable times of the day...we will see. I would feel much more comfortable if the whole thing slowed down by like 6-8 hours.

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Anyone know what the longest tornado watch for our area is?

longest duration is probably this last set of watches. as noted in the other thread there were two watches for ivan that covered ~12 hours. im not sure when spc started issuing watches.

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With Ian and Ellinwood (our two big severe posters here in the Mid Atl forum) out of the area - I guess I'll kick things off here -

Slight risk tomorrow (15%). Seems a bit more like the slight risks we are used to - maybe a line or cluster of storms moving through with some gusty winds and isolated hail. Nothing too impressive.

Yoda?

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With Ian and Ellinwood (our two big severe posters here in the Mid Atl forum) out of the area - I guess I'll kick things off here -

Slight risk tomorrow (15%). Seems a bit more like the slight risks we are used to - maybe a line or cluster of storms moving through with some gusty winds and isolated hail. Nothing too impressive.

Yoda?

I'll admit tomorrow is a high end meh ;)

Anywho.. I am trying to make a map of the eleven (and counting?) tornadoes in the LWX area this past week

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I'll admit tomorrow is a high end meh ;)

Anywho.. I am trying to make a map of the eleven (and counting?) tornadoes in the LWX area this past week

If you need any help.. by all means, let me know. ;)

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That Low over South Dakota on the GFS 162 will likely be over Northest Colorado. They have about the same H% heights as central South Dakota and a much higher 850mb temp. SLP has to be lower.

post-673-0-88608800-1304397040.gif

Dammit the weather sucks again and I'm back to over analyzing nothing :axe: :axe: :axe:

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Interesting though 5% tor contour. And the 0600 spc day 1 otlk seems to suggest that the best tornado threat is around us

HWO and AFD from LWX mention isolated tornado threat late this afternoon into evening as well

I'm remaining vigilant! :P

The 1300z update expanded the contour to the SE a bit it seems.

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