Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Slight risk today west of blue ridge with 15 hail and 15 wind and 2 tor. No real disco for us in the 0600 spc day 1 Day 2 Slight Risk (15%) through WV/NoVA/MD and into northern Delmarva and SoPA... ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO PERSIST/INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WHILE MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLYS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY...THE FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IS NOT IDEAL IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT. WHILE THIS COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HINDER THE OVERALL THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS SUFFICIENT -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE CONVECTIVE EPISODE IN MANY LOCATIONS -- TO SUPPORT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 6z GFS says we score Looks like a setup where we'd see a Bow Echo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 6z GFS says we score Looks like a setup where we'd see a Bow Echo? it's still technically a bit early, looks like most of the qpf is prior to 2 p.m. around d.c. i would think there'd be a decent tornado threat if the maps hold. this is a pretty good set if they were in those spots 6 hours later. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_138m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_138m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 it's still technically a bit early, looks like most of the qpf is prior to 2 p.m. around d.c. i would think there'd be a decent tornado threat if the maps hold. this is a pretty good set if they were in those spots 6 hours later. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_138m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_138m.gif Has the trend been to slow down or speed up systems so far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Has the trend been to slow down or speed up systems so far this season? Slow down... I've seen it 3 times in the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Slow down... I've seen it 3 times in the past month. Then that would seem to put us in a good place at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 It this range it's sort of a guess if it will speed up or slow down imo. 6 hours is not much to make up either. Havent paid much attention to speed at this range-- I think in the short term things tend to move faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 I split the other stuff: In my mind I don't care if some stuff from elsewhere is mentioned in a general thread... especially when it's quiet here. I'd be fine with another thread in this subforum for more general U.S. weather but that might make things murky with all the other forums. As someone who has been here since the start of Eastern I strongly believe discussing weather in an area not in your region is less "comfortable" than is used to be unless you're a regular in those threads all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 The Euro looks pretty solid.. it's a bit slower than the gfs, has a 988 low over the thumb of michigan headed northeast at 18z thurs. I would expect a fairly high torn risk if something like that happened, at least from DC/Balt south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 The Euro looks pretty solid.. it's a bit slower than the gfs, has a 988 low over the thumb of michigan headed northeast at 18z thurs. I would expect a fairly high torn risk if something like that happened, at least from DC/Balt south and east. Lets go for a Mid-Atlantic moderate risk! Lets see how the GFS looks early on next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Concerning the faster/slower pace of the system on the 28th... watch for signs of the possible secondary low development. If the secondary can form earlier/stronger, it could slow down the precip. enough to put us in prime-time for storms. The models have been a bit wishy-washy in capturing the secondary this spring, so my thoughts are that the speed of the front could go either way at this point. We really won't know until the day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the western half of WV: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0188.html Criteria for the Watch are pretty low-end, though the bow echo moving into WV now looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 They look healthy but it's a relatively weak vort fueling them and energy should dissipate through the evening/night. Plus we're warming aloft so it's going to be harder without a great trigger. Worth keeping an eye on I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 They look healthy but it's a relatively weak vort fueling them and energy should dissipate through the evening/night. Plus we're warming aloft so it's going to be harder without a great trigger. Worth keeping an eye on I suppose. I'm not expecting severe E of the mountains... even regular thunderstorms would be hard to come by overnight methinks. There is a nice, broad rotation on the northern end of that bow. EDIT: And now it's TOR-warned going into WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 I split the other stuff: http://www.americanw...-is-it-a-crime/ In my mind I don't care if some stuff from elsewhere is mentioned in a general thread... especially when it's quiet here. I'd be fine with another thread in this subforum for more general U.S. weather but that might make things murky with all the other forums. As someone who has been here since the start of Eastern I strongly believe discussing weather in an area not in your region is less "comfortable" than is used to be unless you're a regular in those threads all the time. Thanks. That puts a finger on it, for me anyway. At any rate, I apologize again for my short temper last night, and especially to klm, who felt it directed at him (and I did not mean it to be). Last night was the anniverary of a very bad moment in time for me and my temper was short for reasons unrelated to where to properly post stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Thanks. That puts a finger on it, for me anyway. At any rate, I apologize again for my short temper last night, and especially to klm, who felt it directed at him (and I did not mean it to be). Last night was the anniverary of a very bad moment in time for me and my temper was short for reasons unrelated to where to properly post stuff. Totally understandable! No worries...I hope I also did not come across as terse (which I may have). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 It hasn't gotten much attention yet, but I'm really interested in Monday's severe weather potential. NAM showing a local max of 2000 CAPE in northern MD, with good directional shear (but a lack of good speed shear). A little dry in the mid-levels, but all we would really need is a mesoscale boundary to spark things up. We'll be missing the UL dynamics, but the instability is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 It hasn't gotten much attention yet, but I'm really interested in Monday's severe weather potential. NAM showing a local max of 2000 CAPE in northern MD, with good directional shear (but a lack of good speed shear). A little dry in the mid-levels, but all we would really need is a mesoscale boundary to spark things up. We'll be missing the UL dynamics, but the instability is nice. Agreed. Hodograph starts to elongate its self more in the late afternoon up here in SE PA (KLNS to be specific). IF we can get an initiation boundary of some sort later in the day there is certainly the potential for some localized fun I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 How did the 12z GFS look for the Thur threat? great except for timing.. which is pretty bad (near 12z). euro sped up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 How did the 12z GFS look for the Thur threat? Wednesday evening at KIAD per Earl Barker was a bit ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 great except for timing.. which is pretty bad (near 12z). euro sped up too. Wednesday evening at KIAD per Earl Barker was a bit ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I always take a cursory glance at Earl Barker... but it was showing EHI's of 2-3, SWEAT closing in on 500... over 200 SRH... sup potential 70% and the such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 we eve is too early for activity. but if the 12z gfs verified in a primetime we'd probably get clocked. it could be a overnight/morning svr type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 we eve is too early for activity. but if the 12z gfs verified in a primetime we'd probably get clocked. it could be a overnight/morning svr type of storm. As in 2008 style? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 we eve is too early for activity. but if the 12z gfs verified in a primetime we'd probably get clocked. it could be a overnight/morning svr type of storm. I thought so too, but its what the skew-t page shows from 18z WED to 06z THU we could get some good severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 As in 2008 style? Not so much like June 08. That was a fast west to east flow, long track derechos. This looks like a pretty classic tornado setup for the area. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Not so much like June 08. That was a fast west to east flow, long track derechos. This looks like a pretty classic tornado setup for the area. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090m.gif Yeah I just took a lot - I guess some similarity at H5 to La Plata event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Well Re: Wed/Thur - We normally don't get nocturnal stuff but perhaps this can be one of those rare times. Today looks ok so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 plz take today stuff here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Timing on 18z GFS is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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