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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Slight risk today west of blue ridge with 15 hail and 15 wind and 2 tor. No real disco for us in the 0600 spc day 1

Day 2 Slight Risk (15%) through WV/NoVA/MD and into northern Delmarva and SoPA...

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF THE FRONT AT THE

START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO PERSIST/INCREASE IN

BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WHILE MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLYS

ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY...THE FLOW

PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IS NOT IDEAL IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT.

WHILE THIS COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HINDER THE OVERALL THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS SUFFICIENT -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE

POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE CONVECTIVE EPISODE IN MANY LOCATIONS --

TO SUPPORT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.

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6z GFS says we score

Looks like a setup where we'd see a Bow Echo?

it's still technically a bit early, looks like most of the qpf is prior to 2 p.m. around d.c.

i would think there'd be a decent tornado threat if the maps hold. this is a pretty good set if they were in those spots 6 hours later.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_138m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_138m.gif

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it's still technically a bit early, looks like most of the qpf is prior to 2 p.m. around d.c.

i would think there'd be a decent tornado threat if the maps hold. this is a pretty good set if they were in those spots 6 hours later.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_138m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_138m.gif

Has the trend been to slow down or speed up systems so far this season?

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It this range it's sort of a guess if it will speed up or slow down imo. 6 hours is not much to make up either. Havent paid much attention to speed at this range-- I think in the short term things tend to move faster than modeled.

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I split the other stuff:

In my mind I don't care if some stuff from elsewhere is mentioned in a general thread... especially when it's quiet here. I'd be fine with another thread in this subforum for more general U.S. weather but that might make things murky with all the other forums. As someone who has been here since the start of Eastern I strongly believe discussing weather in an area not in your region is less "comfortable" than is used to be unless you're a regular in those threads all the time.

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The Euro looks pretty solid.. it's a bit slower than the gfs, has a 988 low over the thumb of michigan headed northeast at 18z thurs. I would expect a fairly high torn risk if something like that happened, at least from DC/Balt south and east.

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The Euro looks pretty solid.. it's a bit slower than the gfs, has a 988 low over the thumb of michigan headed northeast at 18z thurs. I would expect a fairly high torn risk if something like that happened, at least from DC/Balt south and east.

Lets go for a Mid-Atlantic moderate risk! :weight_lift:

Lets see how the GFS looks early on next week.

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Concerning the faster/slower pace of the system on the 28th... watch for signs of the possible secondary low development. If the secondary can form earlier/stronger, it could slow down the precip. enough to put us in prime-time for storms. The models have been a bit wishy-washy in capturing the secondary this spring, so my thoughts are that the speed of the front could go either way at this point. We really won't know until the day of the event.

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They look healthy but it's a relatively weak vort fueling them and energy should dissipate through the evening/night. Plus we're warming aloft so it's going to be harder without a great trigger. Worth keeping an eye on I suppose.

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They look healthy but it's a relatively weak vort fueling them and energy should dissipate through the evening/night. Plus we're warming aloft so it's going to be harder without a great trigger. Worth keeping an eye on I suppose.

I'm not expecting severe E of the mountains... even regular thunderstorms would be hard to come by overnight methinks. There is a nice, broad rotation on the northern end of that bow.

EDIT: And now it's TOR-warned going into WV.

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I split the other stuff:

http://www.americanw...-is-it-a-crime/

In my mind I don't care if some stuff from elsewhere is mentioned in a general thread... especially when it's quiet here. I'd be fine with another thread in this subforum for more general U.S. weather but that might make things murky with all the other forums. As someone who has been here since the start of Eastern I strongly believe discussing weather in an area not in your region is less "comfortable" than is used to be unless you're a regular in those threads all the time.

Thanks. That puts a finger on it, for me anyway.

At any rate, I apologize again for my short temper last night, and especially to klm, who felt it directed at him (and I did not mean it to be). Last night was the anniverary of a very bad moment in time for me and my temper was short for reasons unrelated to where to properly post stuff.

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Thanks. That puts a finger on it, for me anyway.

At any rate, I apologize again for my short temper last night, and especially to klm, who felt it directed at him (and I did not mean it to be). Last night was the anniverary of a very bad moment in time for me and my temper was short for reasons unrelated to where to properly post stuff.

Totally understandable! No worries...I hope I also did not come across as terse (which I may have).

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It hasn't gotten much attention yet, but I'm really interested in Monday's severe weather potential. NAM showing a local max of 2000 CAPE in northern MD, with good directional shear (but a lack of good speed shear). A little dry in the mid-levels, but all we would really need is a mesoscale boundary to spark things up. We'll be missing the UL dynamics, but the instability is nice.

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It hasn't gotten much attention yet, but I'm really interested in Monday's severe weather potential. NAM showing a local max of 2000 CAPE in northern MD, with good directional shear (but a lack of good speed shear). A little dry in the mid-levels, but all we would really need is a mesoscale boundary to spark things up. We'll be missing the UL dynamics, but the instability is nice.

Agreed. Hodograph starts to elongate its self more in the late afternoon up here in SE PA (KLNS to be specific). IF we can get an initiation boundary of some sort later in the day there is certainly the potential for some localized fun I think.

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we eve is too early for activity. but if the 12z gfs verified in a primetime we'd probably get clocked. it could be a overnight/morning svr type of storm.

I thought so too, but its what the skew-t page shows from 18z WED to 06z THU we could get some good severe weather

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