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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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the setup is sort of marginal around here. im not sure why spc went 30% earlier, but the energy the nam pushes through could probably verify a high wind threat if it comes together right. it's a bit early but not horrible i guess -- noon-4? im not sure how much faith i'd put in timing it into that window though, so later in the day could still easily be in play. most of the mid-lvl vorticity is well north and the trough configuration is so/so.. i dont think it's a setup where you'd get more than one round of storms.

Gocha, thanks man. The last time that happened for my area I think was the early June '08 outbreak day. Had that crazy line come through, then a storm a few hours later that produced hail.

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Definitely Meh today

...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

DEEP WSWLY FLOW ON S SIDE OF WEAKENING UPR DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT

LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE IN AXIS OF WARM/MOIST AIR E OF THE MOUNTAINS

OVER MD/VA TODAY. SHALLOW W/E WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN PA/NJ SHOULD

MOVE/MIX N INTO THE HUDSON VLY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON...GIVEN

STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTATE NY SFC LOW.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT QLCS WILL RETARD SFC HEATING/

DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR...AND ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THAT COVERAGE OF ANY

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SPARSE.

NEVERTHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO FROM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO

YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL WIND FIELD...AND

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM UPR IMPULSE.

ANY SVR THREAT THAT DOES EVOLVE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

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Discussion:

The main threat is for individual cells or small lines of damaging winds from storms that are expected to develop along the cold front as it passes through this afternoon/evening. Storms should be isolated, but those that do form have good mid-level lapse rates to gain momentum off of. Somewhat dry low-levels and downsloping WSW-erly surface winds will inhibit these storms to a degree, with high-level clouds and high LCLs also working against storm development.

Any storms that do form should die off quickly once the instability fades around sunset. There won't be any chasing today, but there's still a chance that some storms could develop locally to video and photograph. It certainly doesn't look like a widespread event, and I don't expect much beyond some spotty reports to come out of today's storms.

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They probably could have covered this threat with a 5% see text. I've seen 5% days look more impressive than this.

prepare for the gust front!

A gust front from dissipated thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley...will continue to slide south and eastward over the I-95 corridor in the next couple of hours. Brief wind gusts along this boundary will reach between 30 and 40 mph. These stronger wind gusts may only last on the order of a few minutes.Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM EDT this afternoon...

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prepare for the gust front!

A gust front from dissipated thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley...will continue to slide south and eastward over the I-95 corridor in the next couple of hours. Brief wind gusts along this boundary will reach between 30 and 40 mph. These stronger wind gusts may only last on the order of a few minutes.Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM EDT this afternoon...

Did that Gust front come thru earlier? There were some hefty gusts around 10AM here out of the west for a short timespan, strong enough to make noises on the Glass Doors to the porch.

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Did that Gust front come thru earlier? There were some hefty gusts around 10AM here out of the west for a short timespan, strong enough to make noises on the Glass Doors to the porch.

it might have

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