North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 1st 20111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 1st 20111 That's a longggggggggg way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's possible that we get some big temp gradients in late March this year. Maybe a SE ridge killer front blasts through on March 28th....... March 28th 2011 No more 7/25 again for me please. That was beyond my tolerance for severe imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's possible that we get some big temp gradients in late March this year. Maybe a SE ridge killer front blasts through on March 28th....... March 28th 2011 No more 7/25 again for me please. That was beyond my tolerance for severe imby. Could be...I'm irkin formore severewx. I'll take another 7/25 as long as I keep power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i was thinking the second half of march as well but that is pretty early historically. so maybe i will say never to keep kenny happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 i was thinking the second half of march as well but that is pretty early historically. so maybe i will say never to keep kenny happy. Well March can be pretty dynamic so perhaps? I kind of have a good feeling about this year in terms of severe. I think we have a few really nice days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 i was thinking the second half of march as well but that is pretty early historically. so maybe i will say never to keep kenny happy. I agree about March being way early. This just seems like the right kind of year. Get a little blocking back late month along with shorter wavelengths and we could easily have frontal passages with a strong jet and 30 degree temp differences. Just gotta hope things get amped up in late March and not a zonal snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Remember the NYC tornado/macroburst? That thing strengthened right over me, I've never seen it rain so hard. And the lighting show was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I agree about March being way early. This just seems like the right kind of year. Get a little blocking back late month along with shorter wavelengths and we could easily have frontal passages with a strong jet and 30 degree temp differences. Just gotta hope things get amped up in late March and not a zonal snoozer. Could be one of those years where we only get two or three severe days but they're are significant/very intense. As I said before - I don't like having home damage or trees come down on my house lol but I really enjoy tracking and the excitement. Maybe this can be the year when we see a PDS watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think I'll do some mobile stuff this year. Severe weather has a habit of weakening near me and we have lots of trees blocking the views in all directions. Might be the first year I actively try to get out and get some nice pics. I got lucky last year with that distant anvil on my way home from work but that was pure luck. We should designate houses of members on here to congregate at in the event of a nice severe event. Anyone have a wide open view to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I think I'll do some mobile stuff this year. Severe weather has a habit of weakening near me and we have lots of trees blocking the views in all directions. Might be the first year I actively try to get out and get some nice pics. I got lucky last year with that distant anvil on my way home from work but that was pure luck. We should designate houses of members on here to congregate at in the event of a nice severe event. Anyone have a wide open view to the west? Ha yeah I'm lucky I got that West Exposure...On a hill......which slopes down about 250 feet to the Potomac River about about 1 mile away. The W and NW winds blow Very Hard here for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ha yeah I'm lucky I got that West Exposure...On a hill......which slopes down about 250 feet to the Potomac River about about 1 mile away. The W and NW winds blow Very Hard here for a reason. I feel like somebody with a really nice west view in Poolesville would have it pretty nice. Storms like to hit Poolesville as they come over the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I feel like somebody with a really nice west view in Poolesville would have it pretty nice. Storms like to hit Poolesville as they come over the river. Poolesville Rocks for storms in general....no "DC split"....I call it a Bethesda Split, because thats what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I feel like somebody with a really nice west view in Poolesville would have it pretty nice. Storms like to hit Poolesville as they come over the river. I was just W of there in Paeonian Springs, VA off of Rt. 7 for the storm... some good views up there as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ellinwood, what is the best setup for severe in our parts in late Mar? Would it be a SE ridge busting front with a strong lakes cutter and artic high following behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ellinwood, what is the best setup for severe in our parts in late Mar? Would it be a SE ridge busting front with a strong lakes cutter and arctic high following behind? Best guess (for any time of the year) would be (1) high pressure to the E two days prior, drawing up warm, moist air from the Gulf the two days before, with (2) a potent low w/ the vort. max in a negatively-tilted trough coming out of the base of a trough moving ENE from (approx.) OK->OH->PA/NY. Aiding this would be (3) upper level jet(s) in a couple of different spots (either putting us in the left-exit or right-entrance part of the jet for greatest UL divergence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Best guess (for any time of the year) would be (1) high pressure to the E two days prior, drawing up warm, moist air from the Gulf the two days before, with (2) a potent low w/ the vort. max in a negatively-tilted trough coming out of the base of a trough moving ENE from (approx.) OK->OH->PA/NY. Aiding this would be (3) upper level jet(s) in a couple of different spots (either putting us in the left-exit or right-entrance part of the jet for greatest UL divergence). So given a setup that included all of the above with good instability etc - would that be like a chasers dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 A rough look at the SPC archive (I might have missed one if we had one in Feb) but it looks like last year, the first slight risk day for us (regardless of verification) was April 8, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Went back through the "Svr Tstm Events" archive from SPC. This is a very coarse look and although I believe these are about accurate there might be one or two events that I missed. This should give a rough idea, however. I went back as far as I could (2000) and checked to see when our first slight risk day was (DC proper and regardless of verification). This means that if there was a slight in SoMD but not DC or like SW VA I did not count it. Here's the dates I came up with. 2000 - 4/8 (but we had a smallish type event on 3/11)2001 - 4/10 2002 - 4/19 2003 - data was weird so couldn't get this one 2004 - 5/2 2005 - 4/23 2006 - 1/13 2/4 and 4/3 (listed all due to earlyness of the two first ones) 2007 - 5/16 2008 - 3/4 and 3/8 (listed both due to earlyness and proximity to each other) 2009 - 2/11 and 5/29 (listed both due to earlyness of first one and lateness of the second event) 2010 - 4/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well for those severe weather lovers - 2008 (our blockbuster severe season) also had Nina for like the first half the year. I guess we are similar there. And if we have a similar repeat we may have some slight risk days right around the corner in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 ill say 3/14 .. gives us a while to cool off if indeed we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 ill say 3/14 .. gives us a while to cool off if indeed we do Going with an early date I see I hope so...need some excitement in this boring period. Tracking warm temperatures is going to get boring quickly. There's not really enough data to say this for sure but it definitely seems like the first slight of the year is more likely to occur in March during Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 So far... Kmlwx: 4/2 Ellinwood: 4/21 Lester: 4/26 NE Balti Zen: 4/7 BethesdaWX: 4/1 (Price is Right method) Bob Chill: 3/28 Ian: Never (or 3/14) For fairness I won't accept any changes or new additions to our little contest here after next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm curious of a few specifics...but I need some help. For those of you that are DC born and can remember back farther than my 19 year old brain... 1) What were some of the really nasty (exciting) severe weather seasons prior to like 1995 around these parts. I can't even remember much before 1999. Specific dates aren't really a necessity but years would be helpful. 2) Try not to think too much "IMBY" but more in terms of area wide. Perhaps you had an intense storm one year but the rest of the area barely saw any severe - try to weed those out when thinking back. Exciting years in my minds are 2008, 2002, 2001 but beyond that I struggle to remember much (winter storms are easier to remember). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I just flipped through my Washington Weather book here. A majority of the notable severe weather events mentioned in the book occurred when we were coming out of a winter with La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I just flipped through my Washington Weather book here. A majority of the notable severe weather events mentioned in the book occurred when we were coming out of a winter with La Nina. seems it would favor a track just to our left at least every now and then so makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 seems it would favor a track just to our left at least every now and then so makes sense I'm starting to like your March idea a bit more. I went back and checked the NCDC storm report database and there are a few dates that didn't show up on my check of the SPC archive. I probably glanced over them because I was doing a more cursory check. March does have quite a few reports scattered across the area. Certainly not as much as the later months but still more than I had expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm starting to like your March idea a bit more. I went back and checked the NCDC storm report database and there are a few dates that didn't show up on my check of the SPC archive. I probably glanced over them because I was doing a more cursory check. March does have quite a few reports scattered across the area. Certainly not as much as the later months but still more than I had expected. I doubt it would be anything amazing but it doesnt take much to get a slight risk. The last week could end up a burp but I think when combined with the general look on guidance going forward, we're not going to have trouble getting warm days intermixed with any remaining cold. Keep shooting lows by to the west and maybe one will align really well for us. I do have fairly high hopes for this svr season.. though that could just be because last yrs sucked early on so we should balance out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 I doubt it would be anything amazing but it doesnt take much to get a slight risk. The last week could end up a burp but I think when combined with the general look on guidance going forward, we're not going to have trouble getting warm days intermixed with any remaining cold. Keep shooting lows by to the west and maybe one will align really well for us. I do have fairly high hopes for this svr season.. though that could just be because last yrs sucked early on so we should balance out. Well I'm not expecting anything like 2008 with like 4 moderate risk days but I think we might have a decent day or two (decent meaning widespread activity). I'm going to try to dig up (unless you already have one) a 500mb map from April 28, 2002 (La Plata) - and other sig events. I don't necessarily know if there's a "perfect" 500mb look like there is with winter storms. There's no doubt more favorable setups but I think we can do fairly well with a mix of different things - usually we just get screwed by some cloud cover or other small pieces of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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