mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Oh Okay... Thanks for clearing that up. Do you think it is actually on to something? No problem and I have no idea, there are other people here who know more about severe weather than I do. Maybe Mark, or Ian can answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 No problem and I have no idea, there are other people here who know more about severe weather than I do. Maybe Mark, or Ian can answer that. I'm thinking it's just a line of moderate showers with some rumbles of thunder. No real instability to play with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm thinking it's just a line of moderate showers with some rumbles of thunder. No real instability to play with today. Indeed on today. WRF updated, this is for tomorrow (when we are under a slight risk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 tomorrow looks good at 850 and is a decent track but there is not a lot of mid-lvl energy. i'd think iso/sct storms at best for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 SPC -- DC/Balt in 30% MIDDLE ATLANTIC... MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD...GLANCING THE DELMARVA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN PROVINCES OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL BE NOTED ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SUCH THAT ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG WIND SHIFT PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PA INTO THE DELMARVA WILL EXPERIENCE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. DEEPENING WLY FLOW WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST FRONTAL CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 At work so I'm on my phone but I guess the 30 percent isn't a bad thing. I didn't think it looked super good as of last night tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AS IT DRIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM AND MOIST AIR DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS THAT LIKELY BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 It looks like we could have some bouts of severe weather over the next week... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 It looks like we could have some bouts of severe weather over the next week... we shall see thanks yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 You are welcome Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 thanks yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Just had pea size hail here in Columbia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Trees down with multiple road closures in Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Trees down with multiple road closures in Bethesda. Humor, I assume... It's been almost totally dry in this part of Bethesda today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Trees down with multiple road closures in Bethesda. Stop making up OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 snowfan will make it easier to not miss bethesdawx when he is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 snowfan will make it easier to not miss bethesdawx when he is gone from now on every ob i post will have pics to verify, since its assumed im a load of shiat this is getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 snowfan will make it easier to not miss bethesdawx when he is gone from now on every ob i post will have pics to verify, since its assumed im a load of shiat this is getting ridiculous. you could just not post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 from now on every ob i post will have pics to verify, since its assumed im a load of shiat this is getting ridiculous. Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at... I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc I remember a certain weather event a few months back - I won't dig it back up but it was a perfect example of your repetitive whining during wx events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at... I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc I can take jokes fine and laugh, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old after awhile You can probably tell the difference in my demeanor from when I'm high, and when I'm not...I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 I can take jokes fine, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area. What I will give you is your proximity to the water so that may play a role in some microscale influences that increase your wind. Wind is the big thing you report higher than other locations (ex: random strong wind gusts when nobody else has them). We all get some kind of joke repeated at us at some point or another. Just laugh it off - it's an online weather forum...not a high school lunch table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I can take jokes fine and laugh, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old after awhile You can probably tell the difference in my demeanor from when I'm high, and when I'm not...I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area. you should not post on msg boards while high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 What I will give you is your proximity to the water so that may play a role in some microscale influences that increase your wind. Wind is the big thing you report higher than other locations (ex: random strong wind gusts when nobody else has them). We all get some kind of joke repeated at us at some point or another. Just laugh it off - it's an online weather forum...not a high school lunch table. maybe, I'm about 230ft above the water on River Hill Rd. Either that or my Wxstation is screwed up. Anyone who has more experience with this topographic stuff can google earth it and maybe find me an answer, because I've been honest well now i feel like an azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at... I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc I remember a certain weather event a few months back - I won't dig it back up but it was a perfect example of your repetitive whining during wx events. Its not worth repeating yourself - he doesn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 maybe, I'm about 230ft above the water on River Hill Rd. Either that or my Wxstation is screwed up. Anyone who has more experience with this topographic stuff can google earth it and maybe find me an answer, because I've been honest well now i feel like an azz Just avoid getting high during weather events. For everyones sake lol. AmericanWx Forums - Now with RANDOM drug testing!!!111! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Bethesda, I was just joking. I mean it in the nicest way possible. Back to the weather.....our little bowling ball of rain is beginning to move more ESE, so it may get into Bmore City within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Bethesda, I was just joking. I mean it in the nicest way possible. Back to the weather.....our little bowling ball of rain is beginning to move more ESE, so it may get into Bmore City within the next hour. Its all good, sorry for yanking this thread off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 nam is a bit more energetic at 500 with the frontal passage but the timing is probably fast for optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sometimes though, there are the severe days where we manage to destabilize in the morning enough to get severe storms early afternoon, then again later in the day. Do you see that as a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sometimes though, there are the severe days where we manage to destabilize in the morning enough to get severe storms early afternoon, then again later in the day. Do you see that as a possibility? the setup is sort of marginal around here. im not sure why spc went 30% earlier, but the energy the nam pushes through could probably verify a high wind threat if it comes together right. it's a bit early but not horrible i guess -- noon-4? im not sure how much faith i'd put in timing it into that window though, so later in the day could still easily be in play. most of the mid-lvl vorticity is well north and the trough configuration is so/so.. i dont think it's a setup where you'd get more than one round of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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