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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Oh Okay... Thanks for clearing that up. Do you think it is actually on to something?

No problem

and I have no idea, there are other people here who know more about severe weather than I do.

Maybe Mark, or Ian can answer that.

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SPC -- DC/Balt in 30%

MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY INTO THE

DAY2 PERIOD...GLANCING THE DELMARVA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON

HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE

PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE

TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN PROVINCES OF

ONTARIO/QUEBEC...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL BE NOTED ALONG

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SUCH THAT ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO

REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG WIND SHIFT PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. LATEST

MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS

PA INTO THE DELMARVA WILL EXPERIENCE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING...MORE

THAN ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL

CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S. DEEPENING

WLY FLOW WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000+ J/KG SHOULD PROVE

FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST FRONTAL

CONVECTION.

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO

SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AS IT DRIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND AN

APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER

IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WARM AND MOIST AIR DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE

AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE

TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS

WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE

AREA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS THAT LIKELY

BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE

ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG

WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY

BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY

THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.-- End Changed Discussion --

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from now on every ob i post will have pics to verify, since its assumed im a load of shiat

this is getting ridiculous.

Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at...

I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs :lol:

You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc

I remember a certain weather event a few months back - I won't dig it back up but it was a perfect example of your repetitive whining during wx events.

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Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at...

I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs :lol:

You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc

I can take jokes fine and laugh, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old after awhile :P

You can probably tell the difference in my demeanor from when I'm high, and when I'm not...I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area.

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I can take jokes fine, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old :P

I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area.

What I will give you is your proximity to the water so that may play a role in some microscale influences that increase your wind. Wind is the big thing you report higher than other locations (ex: random strong wind gusts when nobody else has them).

We all get some kind of joke repeated at us at some point or another. Just laugh it off - it's an online weather forum...not a high school lunch table.

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I can take jokes fine and laugh, but the same joke repeated 75 times a week gets old after awhile :P

You can probably tell the difference in my demeanor from when I'm high, and when I'm not...I don't think the conditions here are any different from the rest of the area.

you should not post on msg boards while high

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What I will give you is your proximity to the water so that may play a role in some microscale influences that increase your wind. Wind is the big thing you report higher than other locations (ex: random strong wind gusts when nobody else has them).

We all get some kind of joke repeated at us at some point or another. Just laugh it off - it's an online weather forum...not a high school lunch table.

maybe, I'm about 230ft above the water on River Hill Rd. Either that or my Wxstation is screwed up.

Anyone who has more experience with this topographic stuff can google earth it and maybe find me an answer, because I've been honest

well now i feel like an azz

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Can't take jokes eh? We've all been poked fun at...

I bet everyone remembers Snow36 and his obs :lol:

You need to learn to laugh it off. The reason you're targeted more is just because you do often times report more harsh conditions than other nearby locations AND you complain in post after post when the weather isn't going your way during an event. One complaint post is enough (as I've mentioned to you before). You have a habit of posting 3-5 times in the course of an hour just to say "I'm so done with this s**t" etc etc etc

I remember a certain weather event a few months back - I won't dig it back up but it was a perfect example of your repetitive whining during wx events.

Its not worth repeating yourself - he doesn't get it.

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maybe, I'm about 230ft above the water on River Hill Rd. Either that or my Wxstation is screwed up.

Anyone who has more experience with this topographic stuff can google earth it and maybe find me an answer, because I've been honest

well now i feel like an azz

Just avoid getting high during weather events. For everyones sake lol.

AmericanWx Forums - Now with RANDOM drug testing!!!111!

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Sometimes though, there are the severe days where we manage to destabilize in the morning enough to get severe storms early afternoon, then again later in the day. Do you see that as a possibility?

the setup is sort of marginal around here. im not sure why spc went 30% earlier, but the energy the nam pushes through could probably verify a high wind threat if it comes together right. it's a bit early but not horrible i guess -- noon-4? im not sure how much faith i'd put in timing it into that window though, so later in the day could still easily be in play. most of the mid-lvl vorticity is well north and the trough configuration is so/so.. i dont think it's a setup where you'd get more than one round of storms.

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