yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Ian -- Still an increase in QPF by 0.75-1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 12z NAM increases CAPE a smidge... which allows LI's to get to -1/-2 between 21z and 03z tomorrow evening at KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 any rain is good, +AMO summers can get dry in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 the trends toward wanting to cutoff energy in the area make it a little more tricky outside the bad timing. seems the newer idea is to try to take the developing low south of us. if we can get impacted earlier by outflow driven stuff or such we might have better luck than waiting unless the low does slip north a bit -- then maybe we could end up in a situation somewhat like last week where there is just enough spin for torn threat etc. im tempted to meh it but we've done well when it seemed we wouldnt this year so i dunno for now . my eye is shifting to saturday.. it would be nicer if it was 3 days out instead of 6/5 but it looks quiet ideal for EC tornadoes now on the gfs/euro. models ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 models ftw When is our next meal? The area as a whole is doing pretty well so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 When is our next meal? The area as a whole is doing pretty well so far this season. havent looked much.. seems we're either going all in too early or building to a big season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 The 15z SREF run on SPC was pretty darn bullish for this range out for the Wednesday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wednesday timing looks sh*tty tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wednesday timing looks sh*tty tho? Threat level zero. *Event Ended* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Careful what you wish for guys. I know that weather is fascinating, but this stuff ruins, and ends, lives. Just can't see hoping for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Threat level zero. *Event Ended* Ahhh sh*t. Was wondering what the hell he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Ahhh sh*t. Was wondering what the hell he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wait... Kenny are you saying that we will or won't see severe weather on Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wait... Kenny are you saying that we will or won't see severe weather on Wed? Neither - there is potential I was simply poking a little fun at BethesdaWx after his timing comment lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm liking Wednesday further north into PA... might be a chase day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Why is all the text bold all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm liking Wednesday further north into PA... might be a chase day. Bring some of that severe weather mojo here good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm liking Wednesday further north into PA... might be a chase day. Where in PA are you thinking? And what time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Where in PA are you thinking? And what time frame? No idea... waiting for the models to figure out where the warm front's going to end up. TOR risk is low for now, but we still need to test the fixes on Jason's vehicle (which we're taking into the Plains), so this would be a good excuse to take it on a long trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 No idea... waiting for the models to figure out where the warm front's going to end up. TOR risk is low for now, but we still need to test the fixes on Jason's vehicle (which we're taking into the Plains), so this would be a good excuse to take it on a long trip. Yeah true. Yeah i dont want a tornado to roll through here anyhow, but have a decent cell or two roll over would be extremely nice, so i can film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 WRF still showing some love for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 wet you're alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can I have the link to this por favor? WRF still showing some love for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can I have the link to this por favor? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Wouldn't those frames be for tomorrows event... Hr 24+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wouldn't those frames be for tomorrows event... Hr 24+? No, run came out at 00z yesterday (8pm) so Hr 24 would be 8pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Oh Okay... Thanks for clearing that up. Do you think it is actually on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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