Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Interesting stuff for tomorrow... been stuck on my phone this weekend since I can't get internet on my PC just yet. Looks like tomorrow could be a good chase day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Interesting stuff for tomorrow... been stuck on my phone this weekend since I can't get internet on my PC just yet. Looks like tomorrow could be a good chase day. What areas do you favor? and what are your thoughts for DC proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 What areas do you favor? and what are your thoughts for DC proper? No idea... haven't been able to look at anything since Friday morning. I'll get a good look tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Saw the updated day 2 - Slight risk for most of the area, 30% probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 21z SREF run from SPC website still looks pretty robust if not even a bit better. Doubt these meet their full potential but still - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What is notable, the GOM is Very Warm, while NH snowcover is Well Above avg. ENSO is good at weak borderline Nina, so I'd think the chances we get some action/opportunities this yr are somewhat higher than the average yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 the trends toward wanting to cutoff energy in the area make it a little more tricky outside the bad timing. seems the newer idea is to try to take the developing low south of us. if we can get impacted earlier by outflow driven stuff or such we might have better luck than waiting unless the low does slip north a bit -- then maybe we could end up in a situation somewhat like last week where there is just enough spin for torn threat etc. im tempted to meh it but we've done well when it seemed we wouldnt this year so i dunno for now . my eye is shifting to saturday.. it would be nicer if it was 3 days out instead of 6/5 but it looks quiet ideal for EC tornadoes now on the gfs/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Last set up failed. Hope everything holds together. It will make up for the double dreary days we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Looks like this Saturday (4/16) could be an interesting day, especially for the southern half of the region. Some good dynamics are in place, but cloud cover and CAD beforehand look to be the primary inhibitors. If we can dry-slot and/or get decent thermal heating ahead of the upper-level dynamics, it could be a viable TOR risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1213 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS A EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST CROFTON MARYLAND LAST TUESDAY MORNING APRIL 5 2011... LOCATION...ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROFTON MARYLAND SPANNING EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND WESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES DATE...APRIL 5 2011 ESTIMATED TIME...4:55 AM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...60 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS LENGTH...1.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.968N / 76.716W ENDING LAT/LON...38.977N / 76.694W * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NONE * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... AFTER A REVIEW OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION WEATHER RADARS...AND A GROUND SURVEY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO PRODUCED MINOR TREE DAMAGE NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF SHERWOOD MANOR AND PATUXENT PRESERVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY APRIL 5TH 2011. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AS AN EF-0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS AROUND 60 MPH. DAMAGE INCLUDED SEVERAL PINE AND HARDWOOD TREES BLOWN OVER IN THE SHERWOOD MANOR AREA...AND SEVERAL PINE TREES TOPPED 15 FEET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE PATUXENT PRESERVE OFF PATUXENT RIVER ROAD. NO DAMAGE TO ANY STRUCTURES WAS OBSERVED. THE TORNADO WAS PRODUCED FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE STORM WAS MOVING AT NEARLY 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 ^^^^^ that's a bit crazy, only a few miles to my south. I didn't even wake up when those storms blew through last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Yo. ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SE GA/NRN FL... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM CNTRL VA SSWWD ACROSS ECNTRL NC INTO ERN SC AND SE GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SOLID LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAKE TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE OR IF THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE LINE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OR TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO FORECAST AN ENHANCED THREAT AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 models still spitting out some pre-show activity and we're scheduled for an east wind in the leadup with highs near 60 if lucky. having a hard time getting too psyched around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 models still spitting out some pre-show activity and we're scheduled for an east wind in the leadup with highs near 60 if lucky. having a hard time getting too psyched around here. I'd be excited if I lived in southern VA or NC as there is plenty of shear and the temps will be warmer down there. The easterly component probably will keep us out of the severe threat except heavy rain. Of course i"m no severe weather Guru and I'm too cheap to stay at a holiday inn express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 afternoon afd/hwo does mention potential for damaging wind gusts... so we'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I'd be excited if I lived in southern VA or NC as there is plenty of shear and the temps will be warmer down there. The easterly component probably will keep us out of the severe threat except heavy rain. Of course i"m no severe weather Guru and I'm too cheap to stay at a holiday inn express. That's pretty much the deal, and that's why I plan on heading into NC NAM's advertising that DC+south briefly warm-sectors... would go with that over the GFS in advecting the LL air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 That's pretty much the deal, and that's why I plan on heading into NC NAM's advertising that DC+south briefly warm-sectors... would go with that over the GFS in advecting the LL air. we're in a decent though maybe less decent than before location with the 500 energy and there is some spreading of the flow in the area which usually helps. i could see the slight risk getting nudged north to include dc/balt and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 sref .5-1" most n/w of cities. these fronts always look wetter at range than once you narrow in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 00z GFS is Wild Wet & Windy, looks like many of us 1"+. I'll be up in Germantown this weekend, so I'll take my rain & run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 The NAm shows a pretty impressive double jet streak pattern suggesting that there will be plenty of lifting. The instability is looks pretty marginal but the shear looks strong. I think NC and southern VA look a lot better than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 The NAM shows a pretty impressive double jet streak pattern suggesting that there will be plenty of lifting. The instability is looks pretty marginal but the shear looks strong. I think NC and southern VA look a lot better than DC. You know it. Jason and I are heading out early tomorrow to get to the Raleigh/Fayetteville area in east-central NC. Clouds will be in the way, but it's looking like a pretty sweet setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 You know it. Jason and I are heading out early tomorrow to get to the Raleigh/Fayetteville area in east-central NC. Clouds will be in the way, but it's looking like a pretty sweet setup. Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 HWO/AFD mentioning threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes in southern half of LWX CWA Saturday afternoon/eveining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 06z NAM per Earl Barker showing some extreme SRH up here after 18z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 06z NAM per Earl Barker showing some extreme SRH up here after 18z SAT The helicity is strong, the instability marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 We'll be hard pressed up here still imo to get storms that dont get sheared apart or simply cant reach their potential due to lack of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 The helicity is strong, the instability marginal. Looks like this will be another one of those high shear low instability environments. I admit i do wonder why the SPC stretches the SLGT risk up to DC if there is basically zero instability and LI's don't really get below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 precip hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 6z precip hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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