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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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the trends toward wanting to cutoff energy in the area make it a little more tricky outside the bad timing. seems the newer idea is to try to take the developing low south of us. if we can get impacted earlier by outflow driven stuff or such we might have better luck than waiting unless the low does slip north a bit -- then maybe we could end up in a situation somewhat like last week where there is just enough spin for torn threat etc. im tempted to meh it but we've done well when it seemed we wouldnt this year so i dunno for now .

my eye is shifting to saturday.. it would be nicer if it was 3 days out instead of 6/5 but it looks quiet ideal for EC tornadoes now on the gfs/euro.

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Looks like this Saturday (4/16) could be an interesting day, especially for the southern half of the region. Some good dynamics are in place, but cloud cover and CAD beforehand look to be the primary inhibitors. If we can dry-slot and/or get decent thermal heating ahead of the upper-level dynamics, it could be a viable TOR risk.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1213 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS A EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED IN

SOUTHEAST CROFTON MARYLAND LAST TUESDAY MORNING APRIL 5 2011...

LOCATION...ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROFTON MARYLAND SPANNING

EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND WESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES

DATE...APRIL 5 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...4:55 AM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...60 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS

LENGTH...1.3 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.968N / 76.716W

ENDING LAT/LON...38.977N / 76.694W

* FATALITIES...NONE

* INJURIES...NONE

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

AFTER A REVIEW OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FEDERAL AVIATION

ADMINISTRATION WEATHER RADARS...AND A GROUND SURVEY BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER

FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED

THAT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO PRODUCED MINOR TREE DAMAGE NEAR THE

COMMUNITIES OF SHERWOOD MANOR AND PATUXENT PRESERVE DURING THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY APRIL 5TH 2011.

THE TORNADO WAS RATED AS AN EF-0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE WITH

PEAK WIND SPEEDS AROUND 60 MPH. DAMAGE INCLUDED SEVERAL PINE AND

HARDWOOD TREES BLOWN OVER IN THE SHERWOOD MANOR AREA...AND SEVERAL

PINE TREES TOPPED 15 FEET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE PATUXENT PRESERVE

OFF PATUXENT RIVER ROAD. NO DAMAGE TO ANY STRUCTURES WAS OBSERVED.

THE TORNADO WAS PRODUCED FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED

ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE STORM WAS MOVING AT

NEARLY 60 MPH.

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Yo.

day3prob_20110414_0730_prt.gif

...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SE GA/NRN FL...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY

AS A MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A LINE OF STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN

APPALACHIAN MTNS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS SFC TEMPS

WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM CNTRL VA

SSWWD ACROSS ECNTRL NC INTO ERN SC AND SE GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MLCAPE

VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR

ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF

VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE

SFC COULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SOLID LINE MOVES

EWD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE

STRONG DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAKE

TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE

OR IF THERE ARE BREAKS WITHIN THE LINE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DURING

THE AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OR TORNADO THREAT

COULD EXIST BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO FORECAST AN ENHANCED

THREAT AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE OVERNIGHT

PERIOD AS THE LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

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models still spitting out some pre-show activity and we're scheduled for an east wind in the leadup with highs near 60 if lucky. having a hard time getting too psyched around here.

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models still spitting out some pre-show activity and we're scheduled for an east wind in the leadup with highs near 60 if lucky. having a hard time getting too psyched around here.

I'd be excited if I lived in southern VA or NC as there is plenty of shear and the temps will be warmer down there. The easterly component probably will keep us out of the severe threat except heavy rain. Of course i"m no severe weather Guru and I'm too cheap to stay at a holiday inn express.

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I'd be excited if I lived in southern VA or NC as there is plenty of shear and the temps will be warmer down there. The easterly component probably will keep us out of the severe threat except heavy rain. Of course i"m no severe weather Guru and I'm too cheap to stay at a holiday inn express.

That's pretty much the deal, and that's why I plan on heading into NC :)

NAM's advertising that DC+south briefly warm-sectors... would go with that over the GFS in advecting the LL air.

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That's pretty much the deal, and that's why I plan on heading into NC :)

NAM's advertising that DC+south briefly warm-sectors... would go with that over the GFS in advecting the LL air.

we're in a decent though maybe less decent than before location with the 500 energy and there is some spreading of the flow in the area which usually helps. i could see the slight risk getting nudged north to include dc/balt and east.

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The NAM shows a pretty impressive double jet streak pattern suggesting that there will be plenty of lifting. The instability is looks pretty marginal but the shear looks strong. I think NC and southern VA look a lot better than DC.

You know it.

Jason and I are heading out early tomorrow to get to the Raleigh/Fayetteville area in east-central NC. Clouds will be in the way, but it's looking like a pretty sweet setup.

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The helicity is strong, the instability marginal.

Looks like this will be another one of those high shear low instability environments. I admit i do wonder why the SPC stretches the SLGT risk up to DC if there is basically zero instability and LI's don't really get below zero.

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