ravensrule Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The accuwx forums are providing better discussion and updates than americanwx. So why don't you go over there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 So whats the good word Mark? We going to see anything tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 So whats the good word Mark? We going to see anything tomorrow? I'm not the met but I'm going to say locally - no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The severe threat looks to be pretty marginal overall for the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, with the key issue being timing as the cold front works with limited/no instability. West Virginia has the greatest risk for severe as a few pre-frontal storms and a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) move into the westernmost parts of the region the late afternoon and evening hours. The line of storms will weaken and push east during the overnight hours, moving off of the coast by late morning or early afternoon. These storms are currently modeled to hit the DC/BWI region around morning rush hour, depending on the overall speed of the line. During the overnight hours, these storms are expected to be rather weak and/or elevated, but a loose line should be able to make its way through the coastal areas. A positively-tilted upper-level trough will become neutral as an UL vort. lifts N+E through the region. At the same time, an UL jet will intensify just W of the cold front, putting the Mid-Atlantic in the right-exit region of the jet. The dynamics that we need for severe weather are there because of these UL features along with the surface front, but without any thermal instability that potential could be lost for most of the region as the storms skirt by. Directional shear isn't terribly impressive for most of the region, with largely unidirectional winds out of the SW. The biggest threat will be from wind as a LL jet with a speed max of 70-80 kts around 900mb orients itself over the region. It would take minimal surface-based convection to bring severe-level gusts of 50+ kts to the surface, but getting surface-based convection will prove to be difficult once the late evening hits. Dry air out ahead of the front will also hurt instability as the column tries to saturate just ahead of the front. The risk for hail and tornadoes is minimal threat for most of the region, with an isolated risk for those in the western parts of WV. 18z NAM and GFS showing somewhat better potential for strong/severe winds tomorrow night into Tuesday morning compared to previous runs with weak instability in the mid-levels... will continue to monitor possible nocturnal instability as just a small amount is needed for the severe winds to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm not the met but I'm going to say locally - no Oh well. At least it will be in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I actually went and checked that forum for the first time ever, and that "discussion" you mention is simply just a bunch of copypasta of model images and verbatim descriptions with virtually no interpretation and analysis beyond "it's different from the other run." That's what the snow weenies do, and this region's severe group is good enough to not need a thread filled with these virtually useless posts. My discussion is coming shortly... fell asleep again and missed the end of the race Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 So why don't you go over there . The storm thread in the central/western sub forum is actually getting good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 The storm thread in the central/western sub forum is actually getting good. rain is not that exciting locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 rain is not that exciting locally It is in Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 rain is not that exciting locally +1 for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 It is in Leesburg Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Amazing lightning show going on up here in Frederick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 hopefully it's a good sign that we are getting thunderstorms at almost every opportunity so far this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Whoops...maybe I should have posted pics in this thread. I get confused sometimes...not here enough to get use to the system. Anyway...there's pictures of the lightning in the Obs thread I posted a little bit earlier this evening/early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 The slight risk area has extended farther east covering most of WV now. Timing looks good for maximum heating for W. WV. CRW mentioning good potential for severe, mainly wind. Wind Avisory issued for gusty SW winds up to 40-50 mph this afternoon ahead of the front. From CRW...lots going on today and tonight...as a very strong cold front with impressive dynamics and increased instability on newest model runs threaten an eastward moving squall line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms...mainly later this afternoon and evening. Model guidance has trended slightly slower in the progression of the front...as a weak wave of low pressure forms in the eastern Tennessee Valley and lifts up along the front. This trend reflects the Euro model which has been rather persistent with this wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Monday has been looking interesting, but we could have timing issues yet again. GFS brings the storms through late morning and early afternoon, with the Euro bringing storms through early Tuesday morning. I'm staying closer to the GFS timing at this point. The upper-level are doing some funky stuff with this system as it hits the East Coast, so we'll have to wait until d+3 to get a decent idea of what's going to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Monday has been looking interesting, but we could have timing issues yet again. GFS brings the storms through late morning and early afternoon, with the Euro bringing storms through early Tuesday morning. I'm staying closer to the GFS timing at this point. The upper-level are doing some funky stuff with this system as it hits the East Coast, so we'll have to wait until d+3 to get a decent idea of what's going to go down. We need some excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 monday looked solid on the 18z gfs. looks good at 12z mon on the nam in general: http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The slight risk area for severe storms extends into western WV for this afternoon. A stationary front is stretched east to west across the area bisecting the state. SPC Statement: LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS SRN IL INTO NRN KY/SRN OH. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE COULD LEAD TO STORM CLUSTERS AS MEAN WIND VECTOR DRIVES TSTMS SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RH VALUES WILL HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Monday draws closer...the suspense builds. Will BethesdaWx endure massive damage and 100mph winds?! Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 A Watch may be issued for part of WV this afternoon...large hail and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Monday draws closer...the suspense builds. Will BethesdaWx endure massive damage and 100mph winds?! Only time will tell. I'll pass on that. Yard looks too nice, Weeping cherry blossoms in full bloom now. Considering I've never seen a gust that high...I'd say it definitely won't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The long track supercell that crossed far western West Virginia with large hail put down a damaging tornado in southwest Virginia PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 239 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0735 PM TORNADO 1 SW PULASKI 37.04N 80.81W 04/08/2011 PULASKI VA EMERGENCY MNGR *** 6 INJ *** SEVERE DAMAGE...TOWN OF PULASKI VIRGINIA...DAMAGE PATH EXTENDS SE ACROSS INTERSTATE 81 AT THE EXIT 92 INTERCHANGE VNTY OF DRAPER VIRGINIA PULASKI COUNTY. VDEM INITIAL REPORTS ARE THAT 5 TO 6 BLOCKS IN THE TOWN OF PULASKI ARE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THE NATIONAL GUARD ARMORY IS REPORTED DESTROYED. ROADWAYS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FALLEN TREES. 4700 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER. SHELTER OPEN AT PULASKI ELM SCHOOL. ROADS INTO THE TOWN OF PULASKI ARE CLOSED AND DETOURS ESTABLISHED. NWS WILL CONDUCT SURVEY SATURDAY. http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=VA&prodtype=public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Slight risk for Monday is nearby but not quite in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Slight risk for Monday is nearby but not quite in the DC area. The timing and upper-levels continue to be an issue with this storm... I may be able to get a discussion in-between unpacking tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 The timing and upper-levels continue to be an issue with this storm... I may be able to get a discussion in-between unpacking tonight/tomorrow. The 21z SREF run on the SPC site is looking better than previous runs. Not really sure about what changed (only took a brief glance) but it looks a good bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wish we had a better chance with this. Seems like the storms want to come through overnight but take a look at the 09z SREF run params - if we could get something earlier in the evening/late afternoon it would have this to work with (these have improved over the last few runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wish we had a better chance with this. Seems like the storms want to come through overnight but take a look at the 09z SREF run params - if we could get something earlier in the evening/late afternoon it would have this to work with (these have improved over the last few runs) It's always something to screw our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Hmmm crazy tight gradient, from 30% to <5% in 25mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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