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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Well it knocked out my power for two days. But all in all there wasn't much damage right in my neighborhood. You have to look at more than just Bethesda dude. Something that is memorable for a very localized area may not rank highly in the overall records for our area.

June 4, 2008 was huge in terms of area covered, repeat lines, etc.

Jul 25 of last year was memorable more for a smaller covered area but with intense microburst winds. You are too Bethesda-centric! :devilsmiley:

I am very Bethesda Centric But believe me, I know what 6/4/08 did outside Bethesda. I spent about 1 week in Reston VA cutting down 100ft oak trees on my Grandmothers Farm, they were snapped like toothpicks. My area was spared big time.

Tracking the thing was fun too, the bow echo was so sexy ;)

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6/4/08? "She" must have got you good, since its always brought up.....a huge letdown for my area locally, if I hadn't known it was coming, I wouldn't have noticed it.

When it concerns severe weather, sometimes you're Jebman, and other times you're Ji. Today you are Ji.

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Chance of some severe storms in W. WV tomorrow evening...SPC has my corner of WV in the slight area and CRW talking it up a little bit in their AFD

...THE PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE

WEST...AS THE FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

SPC ACTUALLY PULLS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST....COVERING ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN

PORTION OF OUR AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT

SHUNTING THE BEST INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MENTION

AT LEAST GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDER AS WE FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH THE

AREA...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE

OF THUNDER...GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF

THE FRONT MONDAY...

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It appears SPC is siding with the euro in their day 2 outlook with a later arrival of the front. This is why DC isn't in the thunderstorm risk area, hopefully. Overall, the timing won't be that great. Places east of the Chesapeake might do well.

day2otlk_0600.gif

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Ian or Kenny, could you guys help me understand this part of the AFD from LWX

"BUT GIVEN THE FACTS THAT THERE`LL BE CONSIDERABLE LO LVL HTG AND TURNING OF THE WINDS THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS BEARS WATCHING...ESPECIALLY MON EVE."

I thought turning of the winds dealt more with tornadoes than thunderstorms

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Why up in SW PA? Too late in the day for for the LWX area?

Pretty much... also better dynamics as the UL jet intensifies and puts SW PA in the right-entrance region. Aside from the time of the day I'm not sure why the Slight keeps getting snubbed.

Also, it's not WV, which gives it +10000000.

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Pretty much... also better dynamics as the UL jet intensifies and puts SW PA in the right-entrance region. Aside from the time of the day I'm not sure why the Slight keeps getting snubbed.

Okies. Also, is the LLJ going to be around for us here tomorrow evening into the overnight?

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If the instability and views are there I'd probably try to work further N into west-central PA for better timing and helicity.

There's some pretty awesome motion going on if we can get the instability to go with it to the NW... I'm expecting some decent storms in our area overnight but I'm not terribly impressed RE: severe.

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Could you explain what you mean by that?

There's a fast low-level flow out of the SW just ahead of the cold front... looking at the soundings and low-level maps there is a 70 kt maximum wind speed in the region, which is pretty effin quick (a good LL speed is 50 kts, so 70+ is quite awesome).

This would cause the main threat for severe weather in our region as any convection with downdrafts could mix these speeds down to the surface, which would probably give us 50-65 kt gusts is the convection was good enough and stayed surface-based.

I should get a full write-up out later today... watching Martinsville :popcorn:

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The accuwx forums are providing better discussion and updates than americanwx.

I actually went and checked that forum for the first time ever, and that "discussion" you mention is simply just a bunch of copypasta of model images and verbatim descriptions with virtually no interpretation and analysis beyond "it's different from the other run." That's what the snow weenies do, and this region's severe group is good enough to not need a thread filled with these virtually useless posts.

My discussion is coming shortly... fell asleep again and missed the end of the race :arrowhead:

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