Ellinwood Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 If things come together correctly we could see some severe in the region on Wednesday... Otherwise it's looking like our next chance could be the 27th/28th. It's TRYING to get more active out there... ridge over the middle of the country is killing a lot of potential moisture flow from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Sterling 745PM AFD. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO BRING UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO HELP ERODE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...BUT A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. A PRESSURE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA WILL ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER T-STORMS. AS OF NOW...IT SEEMS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER T-STORMS ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Models are pretty animate about a severe weather outbreak extending from the ArkLaTex region into the northern Mid-Atlantic, which would hit us late on Tuesday, April 4th (GFS) or Wednesday morning (Euro). Siding with GFS timing for now. It looks pretty intense and dangerous... Dews in the 60s extending up to the Mason-Dixon, with pretty good wind shear and P-WATs. Right now it's indicating tornado outbreak. Here's what the SPC has to say on the matter thus far: MONDAY /DAY 6/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD THROUGH THE MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...EAST OF AMPLIFYING...BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF SEWD ADVANCING FRONT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF WARMER EML PLUME. STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE...A RISK AREA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT 4-8 UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The Euro setup looked pretty sick at 12z. It was maybe 6 hrs too slow for primetime but at this range.. eh. gfs is technically a bit slow and too east as well, but i'd favor the euro i guess? or are we in that d6 window where it overamplifies storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The Euro setup looked pretty sick at 12z. It was maybe 6 hrs too slow for primetime but at this range.. eh. gfs is technically a bit slow and too east as well, but i'd favor the euro i guess? or are we in that d6 window where it overamplifies storms... From my observations, Euro has been doing better with the overall synoptics (i.e. final track) of the storm, but GFS' timing has been better (faster) inside of week one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 I want the war between Ellinwood and Ian to ramp up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 LWX put a short mention of severe potential in their long range discussion this morning. Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 euro sped up a bit at 0z.. tuesday not quite as warm verbatim but mon/tue prob both near 70. 6z gfs was quite ideal http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_850_132m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The only thing I'm concerned with right now it the stretching/splitting of the UL energy and the possible secondary low development... un-concentrated energy is energy wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 now the euro cuts the frontal low south of us. looks like it ends as snow nw of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 now the euro cuts the frontal low south of us. looks like it ends as snow nw of the cities. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Jesus. Day 6 euro over amp yesterday. Forecast: 62 with some sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Day 6 euro over amp yesterday. Forecast: 62 with some sprinkles. So severe fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 So severe fail. i dunno, gfs is still west.. but not comfortable (pretty sweet if it sped up and stayed on that track). looks like a potentially very dynamic system so if it goes west we probably have some good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 i dunno, gfs is still west.. but not comfortable (pretty sweet if it sped up and stayed on that track). looks like a potentially very dynamic system so if it goes west we probably have some good odds. SPC 4-8 outlook from this morning had everything south but obviously that's the 30% odd contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 LWX morning discussion mentions they wouldn't be surprised to see the risk edge up into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 GFS for Tuesday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12Z GFS looks better without the ULL/splitting barrel low that would Zap the juice out. Timing sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm tracking some possible activity associated with the warm front along the northern edges of the region on Monday... timing issues w/ little TOR chance on Tuesday around here as a line of storms containing strong/severe wind tries to survive the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 I guess there's still time for timing to improve but it's always something as Ian would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 GFS isn't much faster than the rest of the models, usually I recall it being 12hrs ahead. My untrained mind thinks a slowdown is more likely than a speed-up. Also depressing to know we'll never see another 7/25 again for over a decade. Last time we had 90+mph winds was 1989..gonna be a Lonnng wait. Those two events are the Big Kahunas of the Mid-Atl region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 GFS isn't much faster than the rest of the models, usually I recall it being 12hrs ahead. My untrained mind thinks a slowdown is more likely than a speed-up. Also depressing to know we'll never see another 7/25 again for over a decade. Last time we had 90+mph winds was 1989..gonna be a Lonnng wait. Those two events are the Big Kahunas of the Mid-Atl region. Beg to differ. While 7/25 was sick around here it wasn't a massive outbreak. I would argue that the June 4 2008 Derecho was more notable for more people overall. La Plata is also high on the list. There was a time earlier in the 2000s when I gusted over 80 so we've gotten close. Would probably be more appropriate to call those two events the big kahunas of the DC area. Mid-Atl might be more inclined to be a more widespread event. (2008) Plus - you can't say with certainty that we will have to wait - there could easily be a rogue cell that spits out 90mph winds this year. I think there have been a few 90-100mph microburst gusts even in the past few years in other parts of the area. Can't count MoCo only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Eastern VA and southern MD/Delmarva just got a See Text - 5% wind, 5% hail: (hail in same 5% curve as wind) ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFYING OVER IL/IND WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. BUT...PROVIDED BREAKS IN CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY CRESTING THE BLUE RIDGE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 300-500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG WNWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Friday? not a bad torn track if it were to hold. low is weakish tho. not a lot of upper support. Hopefully we're heading into a more active stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 http://www.easternus...ather-outbreak/ I remember this like yesterday, multiple rounds of MCS's and damaging wind. The lightning was particularly intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 http://www.easternus...ather-outbreak/ moar plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/ Oh my god. She's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Oh my god. She's back. 6/4/08? "She" must have got you good, since its always brought up.....a huge letdown for my area locally, if I hadn't known it was coming, I wouldn't have noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 6/4/08? "She" must have got you good, since its always brought up.....a huge letdown for my area locally, if I hadn't known it was coming, I wouldn't have noticed it. Well it knocked out my power for two days. But all in all there wasn't much damage right in my neighborhood. You have to look at more than just Bethesda dude. Something that is memorable for a very localized area may not rank highly in the overall records for our area. June 4, 2008 was huge in terms of area covered, repeat lines, etc. Jul 25 of last year was memorable more for a smaller covered area but with intense microburst winds. You are too Bethesda-centric! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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