Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 someone should probably start an obs/event dedicated thread with the new outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 spc is super slow.. anyone else? seems noaa servers are still getting bogged down with big weather events. The NWS sites have been slow for me even on less active days sometimes Pretty disappointing, but them's the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 someone should probably start an obs/event dedicated thread with the new outlook This thread is my baby. So one of you folks can do it. I don't want to jinx us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 This thread is my baby. So one of you folks can do it. I don't want to jinx us. what time do you think MoCo OEM operations will start tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 what time do you think MoCo OEM operations will start tomorrow? I don't know those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 My money is on SPC screwing with the weenies and putting us all in a SEE TEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12Z NAM and GFS MOS now showing 70F high for DCA tomorrow, with temps in the mid 60s just ahead of the FROPA... good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 My money is on SPC screwing with the weenies and putting us all in a SEE TEXT. im putting my money on a pink circle over our houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 in reality, i dunno if they can upgrade us in this outlook. i'd think if we go to mod it will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 in reality, i dunno if they can upgrade us in this outlook. i'd think if we go to mod it will be tomorrow. I'm leaning that way, too. It's still borderline at this point... much better confidence for low-end Moderate if things stayed this way or got slightly better by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'm leaning that way, too. It's still borderline at this point... much better confidence for low-end Moderate if things stayed this way or got slightly better by tomorrow. i cant remember how many mod risks i've seen here in a d2 outlook.. cant be more than 1 or 2. most are upgrades the morning of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 i cant remember how many mod risks i've seen here in a d2 outlook.. cant be more than 1 or 2. most are upgrades the morning of. I don't remember any but I'm probably missing some. I also don't remember mods here in February during my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 We are on the edge of the 30% as is so I'd think the moderate, if issued, might not cover us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I don't remember any but I'm probably missing some. I also don't remember mods here in February during my lifetime. We didn't go mod on d2 in 08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 We didn't go mod on d2 in 08? I'll go back and look. And meanwhile, we are pretty far off from the moderate for tomorrow. I don't think we get there - high end slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 We didn't go mod on d2 in 08? Ian, I just looked - we were still slight risk in the 1730z outlook from June 3rd 2008 In fact, we were in the 15% at that outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Ian, I just looked - we were still slight risk in the 1730z outlook from June 3rd 2008 In fact, we were in the 15% at that outlook. ok cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 ok cool I was surprised. My memory was foggy but for such a big derecho event I thought we'd have been in it or at least 30% the day before. That makes SPC more bullish in these parts on this event. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I was surprised. My memory was foggy but for such a big derecho event I thought we'd have been in it or at least 30% the day before. That makes SPC more bullish in these parts on this event. Interesting. 08 was not that much of a classic setup.. this is moreso. tho the low passes a litle closer to us than we might want (it seems for whatever reason our better severe comes with a low almost into canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 08 was not that much of a classic setup.. this is moreso. tho the low passes a litle closer to us than we might want (it seems for whatever reason our better severe comes with a low almost into canada. That makes sense. 08 I guess was driven more by smaller scale and mesoscale features that just worked out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 That makes sense. 08 I guess was driven more by smaller scale and mesoscale features that just worked out just right. there were very strong winds west to east at most levels so i think there was an indication someone would get clocked but with a derecho type event i think you sort of have to wait till it's forming to know who is in line. these probably have less certainty of getting hit in any given spot but it fits well into the climo sweet spot for severe around here.. except it's feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 there were very strong winds west to east at most levels so i think there was an indication someone would get clocked but with a derecho type event i think you sort of have to wait till it's forming to know who is in line. these probably have less certainty of getting hit in any given spot but it fits well into the climo sweet spot for severe around here.. except it's feb. Lets go for the anomaly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 note: i split off recent stuff as we're within range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 posted in wrong thread next? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_144m.gif timing kinda sucks and we need a north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 posted in wrong thread next? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_144m.gif timing kinda sucks and we need a north trend. Plenty of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Plenty of time! only took one run.. timing still meh http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_138m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Work on the timing of that next system. I'm back over here unless mother nature throws a curve ball today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 NEW CONTEST - IN honor of the suckage today - Predict the the next thunderstorm related severe report (not NON TSTM WND) in each of the following places. Loudoun County, VA - Montgomery County, MD - Washington DC - Fairfax County, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 the euro is tricky with the weekend.. maybe a shot sunday as the first low goes northwest. then it forms another low south of us and tries to change western sections to some snow as the low moves up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 the euro is tricky with the weekend.. maybe a shot sunday as the first low goes northwest. then it forms another low south of us and tries to change western sections to some snow as the low moves up the coast. Sounds wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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