Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 hopefully it's not our best event of the season. NAM brings dews to almost 60! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What does the "2" mean for sig tornado mean? Is that a likelihood of 2 tornados within 50 miles or something completely different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 What does the "2" mean for sig tornado mean? Is that a likelihood of 2 tornados within 50 miles or something completely different? It's simply a composite parameter. The higher the number the greater the chance for tornadoes. No bearing on number of tornadoes really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Technical Definition - A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), surface parcel CIN (sbCIN), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP uses fixed layer calculations of vertical shear, and the surface lifted parcels, as an alternative to the "effective layer" version of STP.The index is formulated as follows: STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1500 m) * (SRH1/100 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1) * ((200+sbCIN)/150 J kg-1) When the sbLCL is less than 1000 m AGL, the sbLCL term is set to one, and when the sbCIN is greater than -50 J kg-1, the sbCIN term is set to one. Lastly, the 6BWD term is capped at a value of 1.5, and set to zero when 6BWD is less than 12.5 m s-1. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RUC analysis proximity soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Thank you. In that case, this looks like a growing potential as it keeps "improving" as we get closer. No one appears to be really excited about it here though. Maybe folks are at church? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Thank you. In that case, this looks like a growing potential as it keeps "improving" as we get closer. No one appears to be really excited about it here though. Maybe folks are at church? And it's Sunday - we tend to not be too active here on Sunday's. Church and family functions I bet. Come tomorrow AM if it still looks this robust you'll have all the severe weenies on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 GFS looks good as well to my semi trained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I would look to see if central and southern VA and DC/MD (EDIT: and maybe WV? depends on strength of morning storms) get upgraded to a Moderate Risk either in the soon-to-be update or sometime tomorrow. Simply an awesome, awesome storm for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Is the "DC split" in the back of anyone's mind? I'm sick of having to drive north to get into the best action, or considering it nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 I would look to see if central and southern VA and DC/MD (EDIT: and maybe WV? depends on strength of morning storms) get upgraded to a Moderate Risk either in the soon-to-be update or sometime tomorrow. Simply an awesome, awesome storm for February. If they upgraded I would have to assume they would wait until tomorrow like you said last night. I have to imagine that even then, it's a long shot. Moderates are hard to get here even during our peak severe months. Do you really think we have a shot? I'm thinking perhaps a very high end slight at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I would look to see if central and southern VA and DC/MD (EDIT: and maybe WV? depends on strength of morning storms) get upgraded to a Moderate Risk either in the soon-to-be update or sometime tomorrow. Simply an awesome, awesome storm for February. The time of year isn't a worry for you? I know synoptics can beat down climo, but I find that early-season events tend to be "watered down" somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 If they upgraded I would have to assume they would wait until tomorrow like you said last night. I have to imagine that even then, it's a long shot. Moderates are hard to get here even during our peak severe months. Do you really think we have a shot? I'm thinking perhaps a very high end slight at best. Parameters are looking good for a low-end moderate (if just because of the severe wind risk). 30% Day 2 is already high-end Slight Risk, and with things looking dicier with peak heating ahead of the storms in central VA in the mid/late afternoon, I think it would warrant bumping up the probabilities a bit from where they are now and into the Moderate Risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The time of year isn't a worry for you? I know synoptics can beat down climo, but I find that early-season events tend to be "watered down" somewhat. Bethesda and I agreeing on something?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Parameters are looking good for a low-end moderate (if just because of the severe wind risk). 30% Day 2 is already high-end Slight Risk, and with things looking dicier with peak heating ahead of the storms in central VA in the mid/late afternoon, I think it would warrant bumping up the probabilities a bit from where they are now and into the Moderate Risk area. I definitely have no argument there. My cautious side just always comes into play and especially with the time of year. But with SPC having bullish wording and such a large 30% area on a day 2 outlook it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The time of year isn't a worry for you? I know synoptics can beat down climo, but I find that early-season events tend to be "watered down" somewhat. While were are still in February, we're just one day shy of met. spring. This is already the second high-end Moderate Risk storm over the mid-country, and it's looking more potent than the first system in terms of severe thunderstorms. The time of the year is not a concern of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The GFS is still a bit off. If it verified we'd have not a lot of sun I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 The GFS is still a bit off. If it verified we'd have not a lot of sun I don't think. What did the 00z EURO look like? Still closer to the NAM than GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What did the 00z EURO look like? Still closer to the NAM than GFS? it's closer to the NAM i suppose tho the GFS isnt that far off either it just has more precip risk during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Clouds are a bit of a concern at the moment, but with the strong southerly advection of higher temps we'll still probably see SFC temps in the mid 60s without the Sun. Even if we have SCT BKN BKN throughout the day, all we'll need is some peaks of Sun here and there to hit the 70F mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Clouds are a bit of a concern at the moment, but with the strong southerly advection of higher temps we'll still probably see SFC temps in the mid 60s without the Sun. Even if we have SCT BKN BKN throughout the day, all we'll need is some peaks of Sun here and there to hit the 70F mark. we dont necessarily need sun but it helps. i'd be more concerned about showers etc but we usually dont get a lot of that in the warm sector -- our bigger issue is usually just scouring the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 I am getting little goose pimples waiting for the 1730z outlook! Somebody pinch me! Rat Race reference FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I am getting little goose pimples waiting for the 1730z outlook! Somebody pinch me! Rat Race reference FTL given the nam look the hi-res models should have some porn on them today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 on a side note: it's very nice out today. how can anyone like winter more than spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 on a side note: it's very nice out today. how can anyone like winter more than spring? It's only da snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 we dont necessarily need sun but it helps. i'd be more concerned about showers etc but we usually dont get a lot of that in the warm sector -- our bigger issue is usually just scouring the clouds. Agreed that, while showers are possible, the models are likely overplaying their overall appearance and limiting factors. While it is a concern, I wouldn't really count it against the setup overall. on a side note: it's very nice out today. how can anyone like winter more than spring? Very nice, indeed! So nice that the birds were in full chirping mode this morning. One of them decided it could be fun to fly into my window as hard as it could. Window's fine, but the bird isn't... it's quite deceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Agreed that, while showers are possible, the models are likely overplaying their overall appearance and limiting factors. While it is a concern, I wouldn't really count it against the setup overall. Very nice, indeed! So nice that the birds were in full chirping mode this morning. One of them decided it could be fun to fly into my window as hard as it could. Window's fine, but the bird isn't... it's quite deceased. Bad omen for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Agreed that, while showers are possible, the models are likely overplaying their overall appearance and limiting factors. While it is a concern, I wouldn't really count it against the setup overall. the gfs definitely has a tendency to overdo lighter precip/showers/etc. overall the gfs/nam are fairly similar outside the surface pcp during the day. both seem to advertise a clocking prior to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 spc is super slow.. anyone else? seems noaa servers are still getting bogged down with big weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 spc is super slow.. anyone else? seems noaa servers are still getting bogged down with big weather events. Now imagine it with 30% less funding If it's the 1730 update you're after I wouldn't count on it until then or later seems during big events they are late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Now imagine it with 30% less funding If it's the 1730 update you're after I wouldn't count on it until then or later seems during big events they are late. i was seeing what's going on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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