Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:47 PM, Ellinwood said: Ohhhhhhhhh yeaaaaaaaaaah Remember this? Well... 2/3 of it is there (the warming period isn't as nice as I would like ahead of the storm). At least it's not the GFS at 384 hours And with 2/3 of the equation being there I'd have to assume that if that holds, one of the other factors that IS in place could compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ian will like that 500 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 it is a pretty track at 500/surface. verbatim we'd want it a bit quicker i think and these early season threats are difficult since you have trouble getting sun etc. it looks like a lotta rain on those maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 SPC throws us a possible little appetizer for severe season on Friday http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 2:27 PM, Kmlwx said: SPC throws us a possible little appetizer for severe season on Friday http://www.spc.noaa....s/exper/day4-8/ I really want day 3 to progress east in day 4... chase day! Storms expected to be mostly to our south... NAM storm motion analyzed 40-50 kts towards the NE Get the helicopter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 2:37 PM, Ellinwood said: I really want day 3 to progress east in day 4... chase day! I haven't really looked - is that slight risk area and the features causing it supposed to move SE from there or E or NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 2:38 PM, Kmlwx said: I haven't really looked - is that slight risk area and the features causing it supposed to move SE from there or E or NE? Threat should move ENE, though CAPE will struggle on day 4. Intense LL jet SW-NE oriented through VA/Delmarva should bring in warmer temps than the models currently show. Looks like a low CAPE/high shear event with plenty of wind damage from southern PA into the Southeast. Tomorrow's day 3 will probably show a 15% in central VA through NC with 5% for DC up through southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 2:47 PM, Ellinwood said: Threat should move ENE, though CAPE will struggle on day 4. Intense LL jet SW-NE oriented through VA/Delmarva should bring in warmer temps than the models currently show. Looks like a low CAPE/high shear event with plenty of wind damage from southern PA into the Southeast. Tomorrow's day 3 will probably show a 15% in central VA through NC with 5% for DC up through southern PA. Those high shear/low cape events have a tendency to either be really nice for us or fail - highly variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 NAM at 72hrs (12z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll go with 3/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 2/25 has a decent chance of being DC's first slight risk day of the season... might want to lock up the contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 2/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:10 PM, Ellinwood said: 2/25 has a decent chance of being DC's first slight risk day of the season... might want to lock up the contest that would be epic to bust on snow and severe in the same week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:13 PM, mapgirl18 said: 2/25 ellinwood is a weenie, dont trust him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:13 PM, mapgirl18 said: 2/25 On 2/22/2011 at 3:15 PM, Ian said: that would be epic to bust on snow and severe in the same week Like I said... a chance of going into slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:13 PM, mapgirl18 said: 2/25 We should all just pick 2/25 now and tie it up and call ourselves pro forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:15 PM, Ian said: that would be epic to bust on snow and severe in the same week And all on the heels of a near 80 degree day last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well...looking at the models I'd say SEVA definitely has a shot at the slight...perhaps up to here if things can work out our way. Remember, though the slight risk contest is for DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 3:15 PM, Ian said: ellinwood is a weenie, dont trust him Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Obviously it's early to talk specifics but the 12z NAM BUFKIT is pretty insane in certain aspects. 0-3km helicity at 2pm Friday is at 968 m^2/s^2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z gfs laughs at ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 4:41 PM, Ian said: 12z gfs laughs at ellinwood I'm getting to be done with winter. Meh. At least test out our new generator lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 4:41 PM, Ian said: 12z gfs laughs at ellinwood Interesting to see the GFS/NAM show more suppressed... we'll have to see if the Euro joins the party. The low track has been a big concern of mine with this system with regards to what our area will get. Still a hairy forecast to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just checked PSU Ewall and it would seem the Euro cuts the low NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 LC seems to like the idea of a Feb 28/March 1 event that goes farther north of the Friday system. Maybe a better shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 On 2/22/2011 at 6:24 PM, Kmlwx said: I just checked PSU Ewall and it would seem the Euro cuts the low NW of us. euro is a good surface track but it's february so i have lots of doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not quite the percentage I was looking for, but... Also: Moderate risk out for eastern AR and western TN tomorrow... crazy stuff! 45% hatched is just one step away from becoming high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like morning storms for us... can't get out there for those! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 On 2/23/2011 at 2:31 PM, Ellinwood said: Looks like morning storms for us... can't get out there for those! Probably garden variety ones too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.