Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes it is February but with all this talk of winter being over I'll go ahead and pop this thread out there. Obviously we'll still have individual threads for specific events but I figure longer range talk and stuff can go here. Examples: Ian can post his 500mb love-maps, Ellinwood can talk of how he will catch the elusive Mid-Atl tornado this year and everyone else can talk generally about patterns, past storm events etc. I've got some goodies to post once we get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Lets hope for some excitement in our area - JUNE 4, 2008 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE DELAWARE NORTHERN KANSAS MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC ...ERN WV THROUGH VA...MD AND DEL... THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS WV WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE OVER VA. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED WITH A ROTATING COMMA HEAD ON ITS NRN END AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. STEEP LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR CORRIDORS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NRN KS THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL NEB... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST THROUGH NE KS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL KS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED IN THIS REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH NEB DURING THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Examples: Ian can post his 500mb love-maps, Ellinwood can talk of how he will catch the elusive Mid-Atl tornado this year and everyone else can talk generally about patterns, past storm events etc. Jason and I got close last year... about 4 miles away from a tornado in southern PA (though we couldn't see the friggen thing because of the median on the Turnpike and the trees/hills!). It's all in good fun, though. We enjoy getting the severe storms even though tornadoes are hard to come by. There was a tornado on the ground within 5 minutes of when these pictures were taken on 22 June 2010: Base reflectivity scan with our GPS position in front of the storm: The storm's wall cloud, with the median blocking the view: ...lowering on the left side of the wall cloud is likely a funnel cloud. It's hard to tell whether or not it was rotating due to the limited visuals we had. The lowering did not extend lower than what you can see in the image... it just lined up well with the top of the median in this image. Reports for that day: 2021 CAMPBELLTOWN LEBANON PA4028 7658 POSSIBLE TORNADO IN CAMPBELLTOWN. WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN WITH STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. 2030 MOUNT GRETNA LEBANON PA4025 7647 POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR MT. GRETNA. LARGE TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED. ----- That was our "best day" as far as trying to get a tornado. We ended up being on 8-10 tornado-warned storms in 2010, which accounts for about 40% of our total chases. I'll post more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I remember saying early last spring that we just don't get good storms like we used to. Of course, July 25th came along and jacked us up pretty good on the N side of Rockville. Straightline winds of 70+ and topped 2 of my 60' tulip poplars. Branches came down like rain and I took one straight through the roof. Came through like a torpedo. Rain poured through the hole and down the insides of the walls. 30 minutes later the sun was coming out and the neighborhood looked like a tree exploded everywhere. My grill was squashed like a tomato, my outside light posts were demolished, even my aluminum turkey fryer was pancaked. There were large branches everywhere and power was out for 3 days (yay Pepco!). This was the worst storm I"ve ever been in. I have never seen winds that strong in a TS. It was isolated though. The N Rockville and Aspen Hill area took the brunt but many other nearby areas didn't get hit bad at all. I don't really care to see a tornado in the neighborhood after seeing what 70+ mph winds can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I remember saying early last spring that we just don't get good storms like we used to. Of course, July 25th came along and jacked us up pretty good on the N side of Rockville. Straightline winds of 70+ and topped 2 of my 60' tulip poplars. Branches came down like rain and I took one straight through the roof. Came through like a torpedo. Rain poured through the hole and down the insides of the walls. 30 minutes later the sun was coming out and the neighborhood looked like a tree exploded everywhere. My grill was squashed like a tomato, my outside light posts were demolished, even my aluminum turkey fryer was pancaked. There were large branches everywhere and power was out for 3 days (yay Pepco!). This was the worst storm I"ve ever been in. I have never seen winds that strong in a TS. It was isolated though. The N Rockville and Aspen Hill area took the brunt but many other nearby areas didn't get hit bad at all. I don't really care to see a tornado in the neighborhood after seeing what 70+ mph winds can do. No arguments there! That was quite a storm. As much as I love severe weather - I never hope that anybody gets adversely impacted. Ideally storms would not cause damage (in a perfect weather weenie world) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Last year was pretty bland around here. A couple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings but nothing verified around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Last year was pretty bland around here. A couple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings but nothing verified around here. ? I remember having more storms than normal last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Last year was pretty bland around here. A couple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings but nothing verified around here. ? 1346 LONG POINT ANNE ARUNDEL MD3910 7645 DAMAGE CONSISTING OF UPROOTED AND SNAPPED TREES ... MOST ALONG MILBURN CIRCLE. TREE ON TRUCK. TREE CRUSHED SHED. MINOR SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. I would consider having a tornado in your county to be a win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 ? I remember having more storms than normal last year. i dont think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 i dont think so Agree here - there might have seemed to be more but they were very isolated. Was decent in my part of the area with a few storms with 70+ winds. Nothing like 2008 though. It's funny because I only lost power for 16 hours in the June 4 2008 derecho but 2.5 days during the MoCo storms last year. I could go for some 2008-type action again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I personally was fairly unimpressed with our "thunderstorm season." Maryland got into far more than we did, and although we had a few nice storms, they generally missed us it fizzled out enough to make the rain pretty ho-hum. I font need destruction, but some wind and lightning would do the trick for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I personally was fairly unimpressed with our "thunderstorm season." Maryland got into far more than we did, and although we had a few nice storms, they generally missed us it fizzled out enough to make the rain pretty ho-hum. I font need destruction, but some wind and lightning would do the trick for me. Yeah I hear you on the destruction part. Wish we could get the storms without the damage. In a sense I like tracking this stuff more than getting it. If that makes sense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 July 25th 2010 Stuff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Agree here - there might have seemed to be more but they were very isolated. Was decent in my part of the area with a few storms with 70+ winds. Nothing like 2008 though. It's funny because I only lost power for 16 hours in the June 4 2008 derecho but 2.5 days during the MoCo storms last year. I could go for some 2008-type action again. The end.. And it dragged a bit... Was decent. But overall it was not amazing or even that action packed. I'm hopeful for this spring but I remember thinking last spring would be more active than it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 The end.. And it dragged a bit... Was decent. But overall it was not amazing or even that action packed. I'm hopeful for this spring but I remember thinking last spring would be more active than it was. Well eventually you have to be right? Right? I always feel like really quiet spells of weather end with a bang (not a slow escalation). I'm hopeful that if we can't eke out a nice storm before winter is out we can get a rocking spring severe season. Otherwise I'm going to be pulling my hair out for some exciting weather by summer. If we go through spring with no severe it might be up to the massive hurricane in late August to get us our fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Last summer was more hot and dry than stormy. Missed the 7/25 massacre which was mostly south of here. I got a couple of decent hits in August particularly Aug. 12. One of the best nightime thunderstorms came near the end of May with temps in the low 50s as warm air advection brought more lightning than I thought possible in such cool conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 If it weren't for the damage I would have really enjoyed that like 6-7am storm last summer that hit around my area. Was probably one of the more intense storms I've witnessed in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well eventually you have to be right? Right? I always feel like really quiet spells of weather end with a bang (not a slow escalation). I'm hopeful that if we can't eke out a nice storm before winter is out we can get a rocking spring severe season. Otherwise I'm going to be pulling my hair out for some exciting weather by summer. If we go through spring with no severe it might be up to the massive hurricane in late August to get us our fix. I should stay away from long range... It's not my specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 I should stay away from long range... It's not my specialty. Your combo of persistence forecasting and climo tends to work quite well around here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The problem that kind of killed our severe season (at least early on) with the subtropical ridge in the Southeast, which kept pushing the dynamics too far north to hit us. I had called for a more active season, but that also coincided with a weaker subtropical ridge and non-record-breaking temp anomalies. Last year just didn't pan out like any of us expected it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 June 4 2008 didn't even cut my power, it was lame around here, no damage whatsoever. Most of the Big storms like to avoid my area just to piss me off. 7/25 was absolutely unreal though, I cannot believe I didn't take pictures. The Big Storms usually Miss me completely........7/25 I was "lucky" enough to experience one of the "narrow swaths" of uber-intense wind that the storm threw down. Never seen anything like it, and I may never see it again. 90mph winds are a rarity in the mid atlantic. Question.....does anyone know why the highest winds were focused in "swaths" of 90mph, while the surrounding areasd were 60-75mph? That sounds a bit more like microburst activity. The behavior of the wind was not straight line....although it was not tornadic by any means.......it changed direction several times during the storm though (First NE, then W, then the big NNW burst). Would outflow do something like that? Damage on my property consisted of 2 snapped pine trees, several mising/torn window screens, a decapitated poplar, and scattered furnature 10 minutes of 7/25 doubled Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 June 4 2008 didn't even cut my power, it was lame around here, no damage whatsoever. Most of the Big storms like to avoid my area just to piss me off. It's not that big ones miss you. Severe weather in any one location is extremely rare (hence the SPC outlook percentages). Think about what those percentages mean - the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given point. If you were to narrow that area down to a 2 mile area it would be even lower percentages. It's really tough to get wind damage from severe storms like that in continuous, long and long duration events. Even "widespread" severe outbreaks are generally comprised of lots of smaller scale incidents with decent spacing between them. There are obviously exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's not that big ones miss you. Severe weather in any one location is extremely rare (hence the SPC outlook percentages). Think about what those percentages mean - the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given point. If you were to narrow that area down to a 2 mile area it would be even lower percentages. It's really tough to get wind damage from severe storms like that in continuous, long and long duration events. Even "widespread" severe outbreaks are generally comprised of lots of smaller scale incidents with decent spacing between them. There are obviously exceptions. True. I guess just watching the radar, you see every storm, and 99% of them will miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Some more goodies - For you Loudoun Co. folks. This (I believe) was the day that IAD had a "Tornado" comment in the official ob. June 13, 2007 WFUS51 KLWX 132017TORLWX VAC059-107-132045- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0004.070613T2017Z-070613T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 417 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWEST FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA SOUTHEAST LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 415 PM EDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALDIE... ARCOLA... CENTREVILLE... IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS! LAT...LON 3891 7739 3897 7750 3890 7759 3880 7750 $$ MANNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 June 4, 2008 SPC outlook - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Guess DC's first slight risk of the season. Date is all you need! Just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 2, 2011 Barely verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 21st, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 April 21st, 2011 I'm waiting for Ian to come in and say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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