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MW / OV / GLs Mid Winter Wrap-up


SpartyOn

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Are you kidding or do you really think winter just kinda fades?

That groundhog was right. It fades.. All downhill from now on.. Epic torch coming up.. All the snow will be gone and everybody will be out and about in short and t-shirts.. I'd get that pool ready. March is going to come in like Mary's little lamb..

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wub.gif

I love me some late season snow.. You only get about 4 months of solid chances of accumulating snow, gotta enjoy it while you can..

+1

That groundhog was right. It fades.. All downhill from now on.. Epic torch coming up.. All the snow will be gone and everybody will be out and about in short and t-shirts.. I'd get that pool ready. March is going to come in like Mary's little lamb..

:lmao::thumbsup:

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Hi Hoosier,

Was wondering what are you seeing severe wise this spring. I think 2008-09 was rather slow that year if memory serves me right (weak nina) , not only around me but for the US as a whole. Any ideas what might occur around me say Mar into Apr? I know -NAO are notorious during those months, is it best to keep an eye on the PDA more and the AO or all 3 indicies? If you have some clues please share them, I'm garnering ideas for my landscape business and last year both you and Don Sutherland allowed me to plan in advanced, hire enough people and do some great things. Would love a peek into the future..thank you!

2009 started off slow and finished below average, so you're right about that. The sluggish start so far this year will probably prevent it from reaching 2008 levels (which was a blockbuster year and coming off of a moderate/strong Nina) unless it just goes gangbusters in a hurry, but I could see a quick ramp up in activity similar to last year, only earlier.

The 12z GFS is a classic outbreak type of upper air pattern in the long range with a western trough spitting out numerous impulses every few days. Still a long way off so even if it's on the right track, the early season timing might keep any severe threats confined to areas farther south, but this is the type of look that would be trouble in spring with increased heat and moisture availability in the northern latitudes.

Not all Ninas produce major spring tornado outbreaks in the Lakes/OV, but the outbreaks that have occurred seem to favor Nina years to some extent. Here is a list of some of the significant tornado outbreaks coming off of winters of varying Nina intensity:

4/3/56

4/11/65

4/21/67

4/3/74

3/12/76

3/20/76

4/19/96

If you want to go even farther back, the winter of 1916-1917 has been tossed around as an analog because it's a good match with the Nina/strong blocking. May 1917 featured a major tornado outbreak across the Midwest with some pretty nasty tornadoes in IL/IN. There are no guarantees, but there is heightened potential this year in my opinion.

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Drier than average winter so far for about the SE 1/2 of the nation:

post-14-0-75270600-1297193717.png

Wow. Remember how strong the signal was for above normal precip this way? Nope, we have had slightly below normal precip here (luckily almost all snow) though February is WAY above so far. And to top it off, we have 2" of water in our deep snowpack. Everything is as un-Nina as you can get!

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Wow. Remember how strong the signal was for above normal precip this way? Nope, we have had slightly below normal precip here (luckily almost all snow) though February is WAY above so far. And to top it off, we have 2" of water in our deep snowpack. Everything is as un-Nina as you can get!

If this winter followed the expected narrative, you'd have 90" of snow right now.

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I dont know about that lol. DTW is 14" above normal snowfall to date, which is quite good (esp with the below avg precip). What I expected was a lot more rain/ice to go with the snow.

I was listening to the radio and this guy said we had double the average snowfall so far this season...terrible how people can eff up the truth to make things sound as worse as possible, from their perspective.

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I was listening to the radio and this guy said we had double the average snowfall so far this season...terrible how people can eff up the truth to make things sound as worse as possible, from their perspective.

Yup. I heard many twists and exaggerations the oppositte route from the global warmingistas during the mild, light snow winters of the mid-late 1990s. Although, snowfall IS more than double average for January and February to date.

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Suppose to warm up for next couple of weeks that will keep Lake Superior from icing over. I just checked the satellite image when we got a clear skies over most of the Lake and there isn't very much ice for this time of year. If we get a big synoptic system which we usually get in March it will have extra ammunition to work with if the lake remains free of ice.

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wish-

L Superior was torching last summer/fall... It seems to have less ice then Michigan at this point. I'd be surprised given the longer days/lack of cold in the xtended that much more ice forms.

Hawk-

Same here..about avg for the winter snowfall... don't see much through the rest of Feb... March is always up in the air for big storms, although they usually end up being very sloppy.

I live in a crappy area for chasing (trees everywhere/bluffs/plus tnads don't like this area as of late). All the tnads seem to go south (Iowa)/north (MSP) and west (Rochester)... Last year I had a chance with those huge cells south of Rochester, MN///but i had the kids and no where to take them.

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