SpartyOn Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 It ends now. Confidence is virtue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It ends now. I hope Chicago is buried right before your spring break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I hope Chicago is buried right before your spring break. Hope Joe gets double the snow of the Blizzard and he photographs a Thundersnow Lightning cloud to ground strike. "It ends now" "would be " Maybe another week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It ends now. Are you kidding or do you really think winter just kinda fades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I hope Chicago is buried right before your spring break. I love me some late season snow.. You only get about 4 months of solid chances of accumulating snow, gotta enjoy it while you can.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Are you kidding or do you really think winter just kinda fades? That groundhog was right. It fades.. All downhill from now on.. Epic torch coming up.. All the snow will be gone and everybody will be out and about in short and t-shirts.. I'd get that pool ready. March is going to come in like Mary's little lamb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I love me some late season snow.. You only get about 4 months of solid chances of accumulating snow, gotta enjoy it while you can.. +1 That groundhog was right. It fades.. All downhill from now on.. Epic torch coming up.. All the snow will be gone and everybody will be out and about in short and t-shirts.. I'd get that pool ready. March is going to come in like Mary's little lamb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 As I said before...I want to be chasing in March lol I dont want to see snow during the middle of that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 That groundhog was right. It fades.. All downhill from now on.. Epic torch coming up.. All the snow will be gone and everybody will be out and about in short and t-shirts.. I'd get that pool ready. Then out like a lion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hi Hoosier, Was wondering what are you seeing severe wise this spring. I think 2008-09 was rather slow that year if memory serves me right (weak nina) , not only around me but for the US as a whole. Any ideas what might occur around me say Mar into Apr? I know -NAO are notorious during those months, is it best to keep an eye on the PDA more and the AO or all 3 indicies? If you have some clues please share them, I'm garnering ideas for my landscape business and last year both you and Don Sutherland allowed me to plan in advanced, hire enough people and do some great things. Would love a peek into the future..thank you! 2009 started off slow and finished below average, so you're right about that. The sluggish start so far this year will probably prevent it from reaching 2008 levels (which was a blockbuster year and coming off of a moderate/strong Nina) unless it just goes gangbusters in a hurry, but I could see a quick ramp up in activity similar to last year, only earlier. The 12z GFS is a classic outbreak type of upper air pattern in the long range with a western trough spitting out numerous impulses every few days. Still a long way off so even if it's on the right track, the early season timing might keep any severe threats confined to areas farther south, but this is the type of look that would be trouble in spring with increased heat and moisture availability in the northern latitudes. Not all Ninas produce major spring tornado outbreaks in the Lakes/OV, but the outbreaks that have occurred seem to favor Nina years to some extent. Here is a list of some of the significant tornado outbreaks coming off of winters of varying Nina intensity: 4/3/56 4/11/65 4/21/67 4/3/74 3/12/76 3/20/76 4/19/96 If you want to go even farther back, the winter of 1916-1917 has been tossed around as an analog because it's a good match with the Nina/strong blocking. May 1917 featured a major tornado outbreak across the Midwest with some pretty nasty tornadoes in IL/IN. There are no guarantees, but there is heightened potential this year in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 As I said before...I want to be chasing in March lol I dont want to see snow during the middle of that month. For a person who doesn't chase at all, bring me frequent winter storms in March, or else wake me up when it's april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Drier than average winter so far for about the SE 1/2 of the nation: Wow. Remember how strong the signal was for above normal precip this way? Nope, we have had slightly below normal precip here (luckily almost all snow) though February is WAY above so far. And to top it off, we have 2" of water in our deep snowpack. Everything is as un-Nina as you can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow. Remember how strong the signal was for above normal precip this way? Nope, we have had slightly below normal precip here (luckily almost all snow) though February is WAY above so far. And to top it off, we have 2" of water in our deep snowpack. Everything is as un-Nina as you can get! If this winter followed the expected narrative, you'd have 90" of snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'll say this...that long range pattern being advertised on the GFS would be very ominous for our area a little later in the year. Yes which means lets not waste the systems now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 For a person who doesn't chase at all, bring me frequent winter storms in March, or else wake me up when it's april. We have to change this, chasing is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We have to change this, chasing is fun True, but this area sucks for chasing, and I'm in no mood to waste gas money. However, if there is something within 50 miles, and I'm not at work, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If this winter followed the expected narrative, you'd have 90" of snow right now. I dont know about that lol. DTW is 14" above normal snowfall to date, which is quite good (esp with the below avg precip). What I expected was a lot more rain/ice to go with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I dont know about that lol. DTW is 14" above normal snowfall to date, which is quite good (esp with the below avg precip). What I expected was a lot more rain/ice to go with the snow. I was listening to the radio and this guy said we had double the average snowfall so far this season...terrible how people can eff up the truth to make things sound as worse as possible, from their perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I was listening to the radio and this guy said we had double the average snowfall so far this season...terrible how people can eff up the truth to make things sound as worse as possible, from their perspective. Yup. I heard many twists and exaggerations the oppositte route from the global warmingistas during the mild, light snow winters of the mid-late 1990s. Although, snowfall IS more than double average for January and February to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12z GFS hot in the day 7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We are about at our total winter snow average. The rest of February doesn't look good for more snow, but there could still be something decent in March. We need another 6 inches to reach 40 for the 4th consecutive season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Suppose to warm up for next couple of weeks that will keep Lake Superior from icing over. I just checked the satellite image when we got a clear skies over most of the Lake and there isn't very much ice for this time of year. If we get a big synoptic system which we usually get in March it will have extra ammunition to work with if the lake remains free of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 wish- L Superior was torching last summer/fall... It seems to have less ice then Michigan at this point. I'd be surprised given the longer days/lack of cold in the xtended that much more ice forms. Hawk- Same here..about avg for the winter snowfall... don't see much through the rest of Feb... March is always up in the air for big storms, although they usually end up being very sloppy. I live in a crappy area for chasing (trees everywhere/bluffs/plus tnads don't like this area as of late). All the tnads seem to go south (Iowa)/north (MSP) and west (Rochester)... Last year I had a chance with those huge cells south of Rochester, MN///but i had the kids and no where to take them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 True, but this area sucks for chasing, and I'm in no mood to waste gas money. However, if there is something within 50 miles, and I'm not at work, maybe. Yeah that's why you have to chase either south of the city or north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not sure why people would wrap up winter and its only early feb, and we still have a good 6-8 weeks to go. Remember Detroit's biggest snowfall occurred in April, 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not sure why people would wrap up winter and its only early feb, and we still have a good 6-8 weeks to go. Remember Detroit's biggest snowfall occurred in April, 24". Re-read the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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