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Feb 7/8 Mostly "Meh" snow obs/disco


HoarfrostHubb

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Well Phil definitely called it...and its not a shock. Enough southerly flow in the BL to turn those fairly close to CT shore over to rain...and perhaps up into central and N CT...but we'll have to see on that. It will probably go back to snow though in latter stages if that lift from the west comes in later on early tomorrow morning.

Will so BL temps are forecast to stay bit cooler over by me......compared to elevations higher but further SW in ct (i.e that 650' ob)?

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Will so BL temps are forecast to stay bit cooler over by me......compared to elevations higher but further SW in ct (i.e that 650' ob)?

Yes, yours 925-950mb temps are about a degree colder than a place like OXC in SW CT so you'll have a better chance of snowing than there over the next 6-10 hours.

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i agree. this is nowcasting at its very best. Watching the radar loop, you can see if the delmarva packet hold together,

there will be a sneak attack in the early am. it certainly seems to be vectoring this way. 

below

The big question will be what happens with the developing comma head overnight.  Does it get us towards 12z?  We have a shot of getting stroked pretty good down here, then we have questions of temps too.

It's in focus now though.  We get this first puff of moisture, then wait for the low to blossom later.  It's the developing comma head that may stroke the cape towards 12z and parts of EMA, the rest of this stuff is NBD as Phil said.

It could turn out to just miss and be NBD, or someone may get under some intense precip for 3-4 hours and get a quick 3-6"....

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don't think 150' more is gonna matter much now.

think your gonna need 800' +

Yeah, I couldn't get enough elevation on my weenie drive for it to make appreciable difference. Snowpack was definitely healthier in the 400'+ elevations in the shaded reservoir area, but the storm didn't change much, still a nasty cold rain..the precip intensity also backed off which meant it reverted to -RN pretty quickly. We're down to 35.6F so there'd be some hope if heavier returns got over the area, but I'd think you'd need close to 1000' to get a chance at accumulating. I'd have to drive too far to get to that elevation, and it wouldn't be worth it considering the marginal nature of this event after all the monster snowstorms we've been crushed with.

Starting to see the snow loosen from tree stumps with the warmer temps and rain, very sad. Pack is really breaking up down here..

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LOL...RUC has come around to the NAM. RGEM is still NBD, GFS has a huge dryslot right where the NAM and now the RUC probably have the most QPF...good modeling overall.

Its been all around terrible.. ride the climo train; warm bl and light snow = nearly nothing in a lot of locations possible. Anywhere that starts as snow has a good shot at 2-3" in sne.

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LOL...RUC has come around to the NAM. RGEM is still NBD, GFS has a huge dryslot right where the NAM and now the RUC probably have the most QPF...good modeling overall.

It should be pretty much what we thought all along maybe 2-3..perhaps spot 4 " in some of the higher terrain. Perhaps an inch..maybe 2 in the CP. That heavier stuff is moving ene off the Delmarva. Unless, somehow this explodes over sne in the predawn, but I don't really see that right now.

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Yeah, I couldn't get enough elevation on my weenie drive for it to make appreciable difference. Snowpack was definitely healthier in the 400'+ elevations in the shaded reservoir area, but the storm didn't change much, still a nasty cold rain..the precip intensity also backed off which meant it reverted to -RN pretty quickly. We're down to 35.6F so there'd be some hope if heavier returns got over the area, but I'd think you'd need close to 1000' to get a chance at accumulating. I'd have to drive too far to get to that elevation, and it wouldn't be worth it considering the marginal nature of this event after all the monster snowstorms we've been crushed with.

Starting to see the snow loosen from tree stumps with the warmer temps and rain, very sad. Pack is really breaking up down here..

Hey, the Sawmill to 684 to 84E to 121S- take Hawley Road up to the top - its still there.........

Now THATS a weenie drive.

I used to do them all the time when there was a sharp R/S line nearby.

I can see why you'd pass on this one, though

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It should be pretty much what we thought all along maybe 2-3..perhaps spot 4 " in some of the higher terrain. Perhaps an inch..maybe 2 in the CP. That heavier stuff is moving ene off the Delmarva. Unless, somehow this explodes over sne in the predawn, but I don't really see that right now.

The stuff off the delmarva was pretty much a miss/weakens per the RUC/NAM as it moves NE and maybe scrapes through. It was the main energy coming in from the west that develops the comma head type signature that did the damage late tonight. GFS has none of it, RGEM misses SE. May be a NAM/RUC fantasy we'll know soon.

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I knew that you'd say that, but I'd rather not risk a mini December 1996.

I'm out.....event is what we thought it was....enjoy the 3" jackot.

Well I guess if you don't want to stare at a 6" jackpot W of you while you get 3.5" or something, but if you are all about just adding onto totals at this point to try and get a prolific winter total, then you'd want the heavier stuff. If you are somehow trying to get a higher total than ORH or something, then I guess you don't want it. But you are probably cooked anyway in that department given you are about neck and neck with the elevation fetish portion of the winter still to come.

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Hey, the Sawmill to 684 to 84E to 121S- take Hawley Road up to the top - its still there.........

Now THATS a weenie drive.

I used to do them all the time when there was a sharp R/S line nearby.

I can see why you'd pass on this one, though

Do you know how high that spot is?

That's pretty far from me, probably 45 minutes or so each way.

The 2/25 Snowicane last year had the ultimate R/S line...33F and pouring snow here while HPN reported rain for the entire day.

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