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Feb 7/8 Mostly "Meh" snow obs/disco


HoarfrostHubb

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The radar looks kind of cool...but I don't see anything that screams for me to change a 1-3" (with isolated 4" spots) forecast for the central hills

Yeah that's the other thing to keep in mind...it is actually expected to snow tonight....so we'd better be seeing some precip on radar. :lol:

This isn't really a horrid bust if folks get a little snow overnight. That's kind of been the deal now for several days.

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Yeah, those places are kind of far for tonight, I was thinking of heading up the road where the elevations are probably close to 500' and see if it makes any difference. I think I'm going to leave in a couple minutes, since it's clearly the warm boundary layer that's killing me now with 850s being below 0C. Still at 36.0/34 here, slowly dropping but in an agonizing fashion. You can see that it's "trying" to snow but just melting completely before it reaches the ground.

That must be a sweet area in North Salem, never explored there but sounds beautiful. I bet the 1000' area averages close to 50" snowfall/year, that's a great spot to have some sneaky elevation. How high was your house?

Lived at 2 sites in South Salem between 1964 and 1975.......the house on Oscaleta Road looked right up that scarp - must be about 3-400 feet easy. The town line crosses half way up, and the top is in North Salem. Beautiful place. The house was at about 5-600 ft.

The place is called Mountain Lakes Camp - you should go over there some day - definitely a different aspect of the Westchester experience.

Later we moved to a higher location just S of Rte 35 near the CT line (maybe 700 feet). I was a terrible snow weenie then (teens). That place was the local jackpot for the Lindsay storm (27"). Will never forget that.

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i think we see snow go over to rain for a while in a bunch of areas between you and 95....esp 500' or lower. S winds FTL. weenie ridge 1400' FTW.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some warming of the BL after an initial cooling further south. The S winds suck for the southern areas...though they aren't over whelming. I don't expect much change here...a light S wind with decent lift is actually not bad as its an upslope flow which might offset any WAA...just don't want a ripping S wind.

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Lived at 2 sites in South Salem between 1964 and 1975.......the house on Oscaleta Road looked right up that scarp - must be about 3-400 feet easy. The town line crosses half way up, and the top is in North Salem. Beautiful place. The house was at about 5-600 ft.

The place is called Mountain Lakes Camp - you should go over there some day - definitely a different aspect of the Westchester experience.

Later we moved to a higher location just S of Rte 35 near the CT line (maybe 700 feet). I was a terrible snow weenie then (teens). That place was the local jackpot for the Lindsay storm (27"). Will never forget that.

Wow, great information! I've done a lot of hiking in Fahnestock State Park so I'm pretty familiar with the higher elevations of Putnam but never really explored in the North Salem area. Sounds like a great spot!

I'm sure you got rocked back in the day, there were some awesome NYC winters in that stretch. I guess you experienced the 1969 Lindsey storm, the cold January 1970, the ice storm in '73, and of course the frigid winter in 76-77. Must have some great memories! Places in Westchester with a bunch of elevation can be quite wonderful during the winter; you'd never imagine the difference in snowfall amounts and snowpack resilience between these sheltered high spots and the urban lowlands could be so great, but it truly is. Even here, there's a massive difference between my house at 340' and the low lying places near the Hudson River downtown...There are already some bare spots in the snow showing up at busy intersections in the urban parts of the county, but I've still got over a foot on the ground.

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Are you seeing any slush mixing in? What's your elevation?

Nah. I can hit a wedge to the salt water marsh.

Couple mashies in the floodlight when it comes down heavy, but this is a rainstorm, too bad have some excellent returns overhead the last hour and will continue.

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Wow, great information! I've done a lot of hiking in Fahnestock State Park so I'm pretty familiar with the higher elevations of Putnam but never really explored in the North Salem area. Sounds like a great spot!

I'm sure you got rocked back in the day, there were some awesome NYC winters in that stretch. I guess you experienced the 1969 Lindsey storm, the cold January 1970, the ice storm in '73, and of course the frigid winter in 76-77. Must have some great memories! Places in Westchester with a bunch of elevation can be quite wonderful during the winter; you'd never imagine the difference in snowfall amounts and snowpack resilience between these sheltered high spots and the urban lowlands could be so great, but it truly is. Even here, there's a massive difference between my house at 340' and the low lying places near the Hudson River downtown...There are already some bare spots in the snow showing up at busy intersections in the urban parts of the county, but I've still got over a foot on the ground.

Hah......my Dad commuted into NYC from Katonah all those years. We must have averaged well over 2x what NYC got - could have easily exceeded 50-60" in many of those years

I'll bet that Sudbury MA doesn't get very much more than South Salem does on average

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I agree...it is.

below

Yeah that's the other thing to keep in mind...it is actually expected to snow tonight....so we'd better be seeing some precip on radar. :lol:

This isn't really a horrid bust if folks get a little snow overnight. That's kind of been the deal now for several days.

The big question will be what happens with the developing comma head overnight. Does it get us towards 12z? We have a shot of getting stroked pretty good down here, then we have questions of temps too.

It does this, which is another reason why I was questioning how aggressive it was.

It's in focus now though. We get this first puff of moisture, then wait for the low to blossom later. It's the developing comma head that may stroke the cape towards 12z and parts of EMA, the rest of this stuff is NBD as Phil said.

It could turn out to just miss and be NBD, or someone may get under some intense precip for 3-4 hours and get a quick 3-6"....

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Light snow to light mix has gone over to 100% rain....and at decent elevation ~650 feet.

Well Phil definitely called it...and its not a shock. Enough southerly flow in the BL to turn those fairly close to CT shore over to rain...and perhaps up into central and N CT...but we'll have to see on that. It will probably go back to snow though in latter stages if that lift from the west comes in later on early tomorrow morning.

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