Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What hours are you comparing the NAM to the RUC when you talk about a huge bust with shortwaves?? Scott 0z, here's the animation. Piss poor in MN, piss poor in the deep south with the speed and structure of the s/w complex. These things did not happen with every single event like they are this year. These are errors you'd see at the 36-48 hour range, not 6-12. It was too fast in the northern stream, too slow in the southern. Perfect combo of stinkiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 LOL Thats 6 for Ray and still snowing HRRR fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 light rain 35/30 Yeah, I'm still all liquid down here at 36.7/33 but hoping to flash over to snow later as the heavier echoes rotate through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 LOL Thats 6 for Ray and still snowing HRRR fantasy land One thing I noticed about the HRRR...it seems to be about 1 cycle ahead of the RUC all the time. IE, it'll adjust first then the RUC follows the next hour, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 LOL Thats 6 for Ray and still snowing HRRR fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm still all liquid down here at 36.7/33 but hoping to flash over to snow later as the heavier echoes rotate through. I actually have close to moderate rain right now, hoping to see some slush start to mix in, actually watched a jet fly overhead, it was real low and had that fuzzy look to it, I am sure its snowing just upstairs, 850's are -2 -3 but the lowest 2k is torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 light weenie flakes flyin.....on edge of band that runs thru sw middlesex county. SW CT radar blowin up a bit 25-30dbz. also was a cell briefly 40-45 dbz bout 25 miles N of philly . interesting nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 check out wdrags post in philly obs thread, very telling. He just made it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just my .02 on the matter but it's going to be really hard for areas south of the pike down to NYC etc to stay or go to snow until after 12z or so. While you might start as snizzle and even flip to all snow briefly as the column wet bulbs...the flow is basically due south through the night with essentially no advection of dry or cold air...in other words...it should be pretty easy to warm the boundary layer a few degrees. the 00z okx sounding had a WBZ of 1500 feet...it will be hard to overcome that without some really good precip. The big question remains precip intensity...if it really rips good and steadily you have a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nah, it will snow tonight into tomorrow morning, question is, does it come down hard enough to cool 2m temps enough to stick. Even I am suprised its frozen as close as Shelton, certainly a good sign. As far as snowpack, 17 at BDR, not bad, continous snowpack since 12/26 a very, very, very rare occurence on the ct coast for sure, and its certainly going nowhere over the next 4 days. I'm hoping, but doubting it. Light rain here and 34....hard to see us dropping much...it's next week that I'm worried the snowpack goes whooosh.....high 40's for a week will destroy most of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm still all liquid down here at 36.7/33 but hoping to flash over to snow later as the heavier echoes rotate through. Here about 40 miles to your NW its Lgt Snow... Strictly elevation dependent up here right now. R/S line is roughly 600' here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 WTF is going on? Read Walts comments think he is right on... http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110208&endTime=-1&duration=4 RUC is almost playing with the idea of a second pulse of VV's after 12z. It could get pretty nasty in eastern areas later tonight if we can get temps down. I mean there's some hints that it could be really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just my .02 on the matter but it's going to be really hard for areas south of the pike down to NYC etc to stay or go to snow until after 12z or so. While you might start as snizzle and even flip to all snow briefly as the column wet bulbs...the flow is basically due south through the night with essentially no advection of dry or cold air...in other words...it should be pretty easy to warm the boundary layer a few degrees. the 00z okx sounding had a WBZ of 1500 feet...it will be hard to overcome that without some really good precip. The big question remains precip intensity...if it really rips good and steadily you have a better shot. good points great post here is wdrag's post PHI is on all night and will be looking for snow at elevation and gradu descending and any amounts/location will be helpful. am thinking the hrrr and 00z NAM just arent respecting reality of ice crystal seeing as trof goes neg and redevelopment of seeing clouds occurs westward in central va. thanks wd/phi 918pm. can u interpret this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Light snow...elevation here is about 650' Obs from Ansonia on this thread (<10 miles south) show rain - elevation dependent for sure. Radar blowing up over southern Fairfield County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Does he (Walt) mean seeding where he writes seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 looks like the REV on mt. tolland could score nicely tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just my .02 on the matter but it's going to be really hard for areas south of the pike down to NYC etc to stay or go to snow until after 12z or so. While you might start as snizzle and even flip to all snow briefly as the column wet bulbs...the flow is basically due south through the night with essentially no advection of dry or cold air...in other words...it should be pretty easy to warm the boundary layer a few degrees. the 00z okx sounding had a WBZ of 1500 feet...it will be hard to overcome that without some really good precip. The big question remains precip intensity...if it really rips good and steadily you have a better shot. South of the Pike, Lt snow to start , here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 good points great post here is wdrag's post can u interpret this lol He is saying ice crystal seeding (seeder feeder mechanism) will help induce dendrite production in the lower levels where temps may be too warm at first for ice nuclei activation. By throwing ice crystals into a layer that perhaps is around -8C or so, you'll get snow flake production in a situation where you otherwise would not. At least I think that is what he means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Does he (Walt) mean seeding where he writes seeing? Yeah I think so. Pretty clearly models blew it in his hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 South of the Pike, Lt snow to start , here Congrats Steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Does he (Walt) mean seeding where he writes seeing? probably nice satelite view with his quotes PHI is on all night and will be looking for snow at elevation and gradu descending and any amounts/location will be helpful. am thinking the hrrr and 00z NAM just arent respecting reality of ice crystal seeing as trof goes neg and redevelopment of seeing clouds occurs westward in central va. thanks wd/phi 918pm. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHIPPENSHILL Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 33.1 light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 man....radar really blossoming nyc and sw ct and heading ne. wtf?? WTF is going on? Read Walts comments think he is right on... http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=4 RUC is almost playing with the idea of a second pulse of VV's after 12z. It could get pretty nasty in eastern areas later tonight if we can get temps down. I mean there's some hints that it could be really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 32.5F still with weenie flakes....steadier stuff looks like its about 10 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 probably nice satelite view with his quotes http://aviationweath...lt_big&itype=wv me FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 man....radar really blossoming nyc and sw ct and heading ne. wtf?? Bright banding down there, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Light snow just started here - radar really filling in to the SW. 33.5/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Light snow... starting to stick to the pavement that was exposed during the torch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 -rasn here in w htfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.