ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Euro looks a lot healthier for the Miller B threat next Monday night into Tuesday morning. Verbatim it has a 2-5" type event...little redeveloper S of LI with about 0.30" or so of qpf. But the upper air looks a lot better for sure. It would probably be a bigger event than what the qpf shows if the 5h developed as is on the Euro. Hopefully it trends better as we get closer, but I'm still not getting hopes too high for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Euro looks a lot healthier for the Miller B threat next Monday night into Tuesday morning. Verbatim it has a 2-5" type event...little redeveloper S of LI with about 0.30" or so of qpf. But the upper air looks a lot better for sure. It would probably be a bigger event than what the qpf shows if the 5h developed as is on the Euro. Hopefully it trends better as we get closer, but I'm still not getting hopes too high for it. My internal clock is now set to wake me up to check the Euro/GFS disco that typically goes on here during the overnight. Glad to find at least your couple of posts.I'll play a hunch and say this Miller B connects. I see no reason that the tendency for this winter to over-perform will just cease. Not buying it, think we'll have a legit threat to talk about before the week is out. Also not buying any uber torch, maybe a day or two of slightly above normal. We'll see. Everyone is battle fatigued, resting until a threat looms large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 My internal clock is now set to wake me up to check the Euro/GFS disco that typically goes on here during the overnight. Glad to find at least your couple of posts.I'll play a hunch and say this Miller B connects. I see no reason that the tendency for this winter to over-perform will just cease. Not buying it, think we'll have a legit threat to talk about before the week is out. Also not buying any uber torch, maybe a day or two of slightly above normal. We'll see. Everyone is battle fatigued, resting until a threat looms large. Over-perform is a great word. Today was a perfect example. We got 2 in the morning (slightly less than forecasted), but a squall comes out of nowhere in the middle of the afternoon to dump another 2 in an hour. It finds a way to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not a bad set of model runs last night, but unfortunately they all show a late week torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It's so weird how the board has gone incredibly dead in the last few days...there was constant activity in January and early February, but now it seems as if all the posters have disappeared from the SNE and NYC metro thread, sort of disappointing. I'd like to see some discussion about the Miller B threat next week, the lowest temperatures experienced during this cold snap as we have some 850s near -20C, and some longer-range conversation about whether this is a torch after Tuesday or just a one-day lakes cutter before the cold -EPO/-NAO regime returns for the rest of the epic winter. I don't find it very weird at all...there simply isn't much to talk about and the majority of folks don't care to stick around to discuss 850 mb temps, after negelecting their families and jobs in favor of this board for the past 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not a bad set of model runs last night, but unfortunately they all show a late week torch. Really because I thought they blew dead rats. Light to mod threat 5-6 days out and a growing consensus that the pattern goes to sh** shortly thereafter. See you in March. 10.1\1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW, GFS reforecast ensemble (which take into account the GFS ensemble biases) has a substantial negative NAO from the end of next week through the following week. http://www.esrl.noaa..._animation.html GFS ensembles don't look all that warm either. Only 2 mild days - next Mon and Fri, with most of the rest of the time near to below normal. Note that this product appears to have a slight (~3F) warm bias. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSTDEP2_0z/tloop.html Really because I thought they blew dead rats. Light to mod threat 5-6 days out and a growing consensus that the pattern goes to sh** shortly thereafter. See you in March. 10.1\1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Must we talk about such unpleasant things? Here's a shot of last years spring run off. Can we see the same scene in July? Man that was some L-O-W water! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW, GFS reforecast ensemble (which take into account the GFS ensemble biases) has a substantial negative NAO from the end of next week through the following week. http://www.esrl.noaa..._animation.html GFS ensembles don't look all that warm either. Only 2 mild days - next Mon and Fri, with most of the rest of the time near to below normal. Note that this product appears to have a slight (~3F) warm bias. http://www.meteo.psu...2_0z/tloop.html Nice. Gotta keep Oscar in his can. Can we see the same scene in July? Man that was some L-O-W water! lol. Too low. The fairways at the Worhington Golf Club made a bit of a recovery late in the season but they were burned to a crisp. They'll have a long, cold Spring to bounce back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Really because I thought they blew dead rats. Light to mod threat 5-6 days out and a growing consensus that the pattern goes to sh** shortly thereafter. See you in March. 10.1\1 It didn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It didn't look bad. What do you think about the Miller B threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Although 06z taketh any miller b next week. That feature is certainly not a guarantee by any means. I wouldn't put stock in the 00z depiction just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm bored, it hasn't snowed in at least 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Surprised to see the snowstorm on the Euro for early next week. Can we sneak in one more storm before the 2-3 day torch? End of Euro looks like cold would return shortly thereafter provided that ridiculous low of of Cali isn't there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS has some decent snow from the clipper on Sunday. Its mostly been north on guidance with a couple runs coming south...but this one has a decent vortmax track just to our south so we'd probably see a nice band of 1-3" or 2-4" snows if that occurred. Track is still a bit north of of optimal, but good enough for some light snow. Except for that WAA snow event we had a few weeks ago that dropped 2-4..experience with most of those clippers that go north of us is we don't get much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Surprised to see the snowstorm on the Euro for early next week. Can we sneak in one more storm before the 2-3 day torch? End of Euro looks like cold would return shortly thereafter provided that ridiculous low of of Cali isn't there I hope so, but the setup is a little shaky. Hope it happens, otherwise it's snoozer city for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I hope so, but the setup is a little shaky. Hope it happens, otherwise it's snoozer city for days. Any support for it on the ensembles from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Any support for it on the ensembles from last night? No, unfortunately. Euro ensembles have it, but it's north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 No, unfortunately. Euro ensembles have it, but it's north. Yeah that one ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah that one ain't happening Well sometimes op runs catch things like this before ensembles, but all I'm saying is to not get your hopes up with this. If the next several model cycles show this, then we can put some stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I don't find it very weird at all...there simply isn't much to talk about and the majority of folks don't care to stick around to discuss 850 mb temps, after negelecting their families and jobs in favor of this board for the past 2 months. yeah this. i loath boring weather...it hurts my soul...but if there's any positive to take away from quiet winter periods it is A: not feeling like i am constantly missing something if i'm away from my computer B: don't have to walk through the grocery store looking down at my phone C: i won't get quite as many eye rolls from the wife for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 yeah this. i loath boring weather...it hurts my soul...but if there's any positive to take away from quiet winter periods it is A: not feeling like i am constantly missing something if i'm away from my computer B: don't have to walk through the grocery store looking down at my phone C: i won't get quite as many eye rolls from the wife for a few days Check, check, and check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 yeah this. i loath boring weather...it hurts my soul...but if there's any positive to take away from quiet winter periods it is A: not feeling like i am constantly missing something if i'm away from my computer B: don't have to walk through the grocery store looking down at my phone C: i won't get quite as many eye rolls from the wife for a few days Perfect...so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 we'll just have to hope that P006 on the 06z gefs run is right for tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 8/0, clear and calm. It won't take long before something of interest comes along. Tuesday is not off the table. Just a quiet interlude before a regeneration of the stormy/snowy pattern. The 'torch' if you can call it that looks feeble and short lived. Not really any above 32 temps expected here until next week when we might hit 33.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 8/0, clear and calm. It won't take long before something of interest comes along. Tuesday is not off the table. Just a quiet interlude before a regeneration of the stormy/snowy pattern. The 'torch' if you can call it that looks feeble and short lived. Not really any above 32 temps expected here until next week when we might hit 33.lol LOL...don't worry Pete we know it stays colder there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 On the road today all day up in GC...enjoy the weather..it's the only weather you've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 11.2/5 Only have a 26" snow pack right now, we could use some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, I could get caught up on this thread in 2 mins, Got to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 On the road today all day up in GC...enjoy the weather..it's the only weather you've got Enjoy the trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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