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Feb 7/8 Mostly "Meh" snow obs/disco


HoarfrostHubb

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Will, do you think there's any hope for a switch to snow down here?

Temp seems to be stuck at 35F although heavier returns have moved in...we're down from 36.7F earlier.

Your BL temps are killing you...they are above 0C. You need to head up 500-1000 feet in that situation. A lot of people on here mistake BL temps for sfc temps, but that is not what it means. The BL is defined as the layer above the sfc where significant friction becomes less of an issue...so its more like 900-950mb. You should changeover eventually if good omega comes in, but otherwise you might be SOL.

Places at 1000 feet there are closer to the freezing mark so they will see the snow because the flakes have only started to melt there but haven't had enough to time to melt before hitting the sfc. So in that type of setup you'll see a 1000 foot place see 2-3" of total slop while 200 feet never sees any flakes because the flakes all melt before it hits them and there's no cooling left to happen...the freezing line is simply too high.

A place near Ray in NE MA has a chance because the BL isn't as torched...his 950mb temps are like -1C right now instead of like 0C or 0.5C so he can still try to cool from the top-down a bit more.

These types of setups are often poorly forecasted too...its not impossible to see the cooling go lower than forecast, but generally it doesn't happen so that's why you see an "elevation event" where 500 feet can make the difference between 5" and 1".

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Will, do you think there's any hope for a switch to snow down here?

Temp seems to be stuck at 35F although heavier returns have moved in...we're down from 36.7F earlier.

Elevation is everything for this one.. Earlier this evening i drove through town to see it raining at around 600' while it was pure snow at my house at 850'. Now I see MGJ is reporting Lgt Snow and I believe they are roughly at 400'..

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Your BL temps are killing you...they are above 0C. You need to head up 500-1000 feet in that situation. A lot of people on here mistake BL temps for sfc temps, but that is not what it means. The BL is defined as the layer above the sfc where significant friction becomes less of an issue...so its more like 900-950mb. You should changeover eventually if good omega comes in, but otherwise you might be SOL.

Places at 1000 feet there are closer to the freezing mark so they will see the snow because the flakes have only started to melt there but haven't had enough to time to melt before hitting the sfc. So in that type of setup you'll see a 1000 foot place see 2-3" of total slop while 200 feet never sees any flakes because the flakes all melt before it hits them and there's no cooling left to happen...the freezing line is simply too high.

Thanks for the explanation, Will!

Has changed over to some wet flakes now mixed with the rain at 35.3/34....not going to cut it really at this point in the storm.

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Reall accumulating on every little limb outside...this is reminding me of that Feb 23-24 event last year but of course a lot less prolific. And of course no monster rainstorm right after it while Socks gets a bunch of snow...once in a lifetime for him.

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Reall accumulating on every little limb outside...this is reminding me of that Feb 23-24 event last year but of course a lot less prolific. And of course no monster rainstorm right after it while Socks gets a bunch of snow...once in a lifetime for him.

You mean you don't think we'll have a repeat of the Snowicane this February, Will?

I have never seen anything like that storm, it's got to be a 100-year event considering the retrograding track at such a low latitude. It's not too unusual to see a low pressure back into the Gulf of Maine, but it never seems to happen over Long Island. I guess the Blizzard of 1888 was a bit similar, although that was a colder event with less of a cut-off between the heavy snow in SE NY and rain elsewhere. I have honestly never seen anything like the Snowicane, that was just pure wickedness, a storm for the ages to be sure. I remember waking up to the radar and literally jumping up and down...when I realized I was going to stay all snow, I knew it was hammer time. We've had some great storms this year like the Boxing Day Nor'easter, but that was in a class of its own.

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Every little single limb is coated in snow right now...it looks like white coral outside. Very nice scene.

Hoping for 2-3" here, but not getting hopes up....as impressive as radar looks, this stuff is only slowly accumulating. We are supposed to have a good chance tomorrow morning with the inverted trough and ll convergence, but that is a question mark...ironically, that was the main part of the system for almsot all guidance...not this current stuff, so we'll see. The 00z guidance didn't like it as much but it was still there.

Regardless, no reason to change a 1-3" forecast right now...already have a spot 4" covered too.

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You mean you don't think we'll have a repeat of the Snowicane this February, Will?

I have never seen anything like that storm, it's got to be a 100-year event considering the retrograding track at such a low latitude. It's not too unusual to see a low pressure back into the Gulf of Maine, but it never seems to happen over Long Island. I guess the Blizzard of 1888 was a bit similar, although that was a colder event with less of a cut-off between the heavy snow in SE NY and rain elsewhere. I have honestly never seen anything like the Snowicane, that was just pure wickedness, a storm for the ages to be sure. I remember waking up to the radar and literally jumping up and down...when I realized I was going to stay all snow, I knew it was hammer time. We've had some great storms this year like the Boxing Day Nor'easter, but that was in a class of its own.

How much did you get in that

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How much did you get in that

I'm sure you've heard my Snowicane numbers LOL but only had 13" here w/ Boxing Day, slight disappointment.

Sorry for my late night rants about the Snowicane, was such an interesting storm though, although it's too bad we didn't have a legitimate arctic airmass or New England might have made out better. I'd guess that the 2/25 storm is the closest we've come to a triple phaser in a long time. The one limiting factor last winter was the lack of true bitter cold with the strong El Niño in control.

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