prinsburg_wx Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 another report on the blizzard. 0530 PM HEAVY SNOW WATFORD CITY 47.80N 103.28W 04/30/2011 E6.0 INCH MCKENZIE ND EMERGENCY MNGR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. POWER OUTAGES OVER PARTS OF MCKENZIE COUNTY. SEMI TRUCKS JACKKNIFED ON HIGHWAY 22 NORTH OF KILLDEER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 What an amazing storm. Because of the poor modeling of it--I did a write up on it and infused some other details regarding "dynamic" analysis into the discussion for those interested. http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/deep-cyclogenesis-and-the-utility-of-potential-vorticity-thinking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 What an amazing storm. Because of the poor modeling of it--I did a write up on it and infused some other details regarding "dynamic" analysis into the discussion for those interested. http://jasonahsenmac...icity-thinking/ Very nice with the IPV thinking, I know alot of grads that if they aren't exposed to it think it's useless but early on most meteorologist used potential temp. as a vertical coord system, and it has recently been revived. I think the best part of the whole post that you made was the mix between QG theory and IPV thinking, I think a combo of these 2 give forecasters the best tools available to understand, diagnose, and forecast the weather. I had some IPV in undergrad but it's kinda been reintroduced to me in grad school and is an excellent tool and really works well to compliment where QG theory fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Very nice with the IPV thinking, I know alot of grads that if they aren't exposed to it think it's useless but early on most meteorologist used potential temp. as a vertical coord system, and it has recently been revived. I think the best part of the whole post that you made was the mix between QG theory and IPV thinking, I think a combo of these 2 give forecasters the best tools available to understand, diagnose, and forecast the weather. I had some IPV in undergrad but it's kinda been reintroduced to me in grad school and is an excellent tool and really works well to compliment where QG theory fails. 100 percent agree on the " combo" PV/QG approach. I am really in the "basic" learning phase right now, but I am already seeing the huge utility after 5 months. Can't wait to delve into more papers and deepen my admittedly basic understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 time to dust off the thread to complain about this: The high temperature has now reached 112 degrees at Billard Airport in Topeka. The last time 112 degrees was reached here was August 15th 1936. This ties it for the 4th warmest high temperature ever recorded in Topeka. With a few more hours of heating, the temperature could reach even higher. The highest temperatures ever recorded were 113 on August 13 and 14 1936, and 114 on July 24 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 time to dust off the thread to complain about this: Worthy of a complaint. I am happy to see a general pattern change and a retrogression of the subtropical ridge towards the intermountain W where it belongs. We broke a 100 for the first time in in nearly three years Monday. Oklahoma and Kansas need a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 we have had some sort of heat warning for like 6 weeks straight...really making me want to move, regardless of spring and autumn awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 life is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 life is good I am not complaining. The relief may very well be long lasting as EC/Atlantic troughing sets up and a retrograding low sets up over the EPAC. This should develop another good monsoon over the 4 corners and intermountain W with a ring of fire type setup over the central plains. The stationary front may very well setup as far S as southern OK as the subtropical high is shunted well into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 First round of storms was a miss. Looks like we'll have a bunch more opportunities in the coming days. It's just nice to not see all the storm activity displaced to up near the northern border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 isn't it supposed to start cooling down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 what an awful place to live the plains have been this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 isn't it supposed to start cooling down? what an awful place to live the plains have been this summer. Awful indeed. Tomorrow will feature the first arctic intrusion into the lower 48 bringing with it much needed cooler and drier air. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s will be much welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Well, this is the most recent thread I could find that mentions MT/WY/ND. Not even sure how many active members we have from these locations... Anyways, very good agreement between the GFS and EC, in addition to their respective ensembles (not shown), that late next week into next weekend will be your last real taste of summer, so enjoy it while it lasts! Shows up nicely in 500 mb height anomalies, but 850 temps are also progged to be above 22C, possibly as high as 26C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 39 and rain in North Platte, 35 and fog in Custer, SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 39 and rain in North Platte, 35 and fog in Custer, SD. Talk about a miserable mid-September day Fortunately this cool shot looks short-lived and hopefully we warm up later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 39 and rain in North Platte, 35 and fog in Custer, SD. It was awful. We were outside all day setting up a tent for an outreach event here in NP. It was soggy and wet everywhere...and we shattered the record low high temp by a bit. It was 52 I believe...and our high was 47...and that was overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Talk about a miserable mid-September day Fortunately this cool shot looks short-lived and hopefully we warm up later next week. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Where are you located? Grand Forks, ND now. I just moved here this past summer from the Philadelphia region. Should be quite a change come this winter.. but I'm actually looking forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Grand Forks, ND now. I just moved here this past summer from the Philadelphia region. Should be quite a change come this winter.. but I'm actually looking forward to it! Awesome! We have a few GFK natives here. I received my B.S. at UND, and I worked in Grand Forks at Meridian (and the airport) for 2.5 years after college. We also have a grad student here (cmichweather) and a former Meridian employee (niumetgf) now at Anchorage WFO. What do you do there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Awesome! We have a few GFK natives here. I received my B.S. at UND, and I worked in Grand Forks at Meridian (and the airport) for 2.5 years after college. We also have a grad student here (cmichweather) and a former Meridian employee (niumetgf) now at Anchorage WFO. What do you do there? Well how about that, I work at Meridian as well. Glad to know I have some people to relate to on the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Well how about that, I work at Meridian as well. Glad to know I have some people to relate to on the forum! Awesome. How long have you been there? I was last there about 1.5 years ago. Ben Collin is also on the boards.How are you liking ND, GFK, and the job? You will like working with Mr. Jensen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Awesome. How long have you been there? I was last there about 1.5 years ago. Ben Collin is also on the boards.How are you liking ND, GFK, and the job? You will like working with Mr. Jensen. I got out here the last week of July. It took a lot of getting used to coming from a big city and all but it's grown on me. I enjoy the job as well, it hasn't been too far over my head so far but from what I hear things get much busier during the winter as I kind of expected. As you probably know things can get kind of boring when there's an isolated chance of thunderstorms for days on end so I'm actually looking forward to getting started with the wintertime forecasting. And yea Joe's a great guy, I've worked with him a lot so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 I got out here the last week of July. It took a lot of getting used to coming from a big city and all but it's grown on me. I enjoy the job as well, it hasn't been too far over my head so far but from what I hear things get much busier during the winter as I kind of expected. As you probably know things can get kind of boring when there's an isolated chance of thunderstorms for days on end so I'm actually looking forward to getting started with the wintertime forecasting. And yea Joe's a great guy, I've worked with him a lot so far. Yes, winter season will be very hectic, especially with the loss of so many experienced forecasters lately. I hope you have a very good grasp on winter weather forecasting If you have any questions about the area, job, etc let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 how about some winter forecasts/thoughts/musings for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Yes, winter season will be very hectic, especially with the loss of so many experienced forecasters lately. I hope you have a very good grasp on winter weather forecasting If you have any questions about the area, job, etc let me know. Winter weather has always been my biggest passion so I'd like to think that I have a good enough grasp on it haha. Thanks a lot though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I love how dreary it is out...now the next piece of the puzzle is to get some days that are 55 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 picked up almost an inch last night...for the first time in a long time we had a nice soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 I love how dreary it is out...now the next piece of the puzzle is to get some days that are 55 and sunny. picked up almost an inch last night...for the first time in a long time we had a nice soaker. It has been glorious the last few days. Personally I love fall transitions, especially after a long and hot summer. I am used to more northern climates in ND and MN, so this summer was pretty awful once we hit July. We picked up around an inch of rain behind the last front with that slow migrating upper low. Oddly enough that system that ejected into the plains behind that deep cold intrusion was also likely the final monsoonal activity across the intermountain W/SW of the year. A pretty impressive low PV rapidly deepening across the northern plains Tuesday/Wednesday. No arctic air linkage, but it will shunt another latitudinal deep front through the plains. That should keep a cap on temps and also dewpoints without being overly cool. Best time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Going to be a wind show tomorrow across North Dakota. These rapidly intensifying bent back lows have a tendency to be efficient wind machines since they are so conducive to deep mixing/subsidence on the cold side of the low. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few 60 gusts near the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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