mnweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I saw that as well....quite windy Sunday evening behind low. Sure does look warm Sunday with favorable west wind for the valley to warm things up. Could be 40....wouldnt be suprised.... There remains consistent signs of a snow event in the area next Friday-early Saturday....we will see...but most models have had something. Nothing huge but perhaps signs pointing to a return to a stormier pattern.... I have noticed the models indicating something for late next week as well. It will be kind of nice to get in a SW flow, It has been a while. January had lots of clippers over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Good evening! I'm in Georgia and have never been to the plains, but I sure do enjoy watching the radar returns during spring! I graduated from FSU back in April with a BS, so I still have a lot to learn, real world exp that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Good evening! I'm in Georgia and have never been to the plains, but I sure do enjoy watching the radar returns during spring! I graduated from FSU back in April with a BS, so I still have a lot to learn, real world exp that is. You moving to the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 You moving to the plains? Not planning to anytime soon. I am in Broadcasting, so I may end up there one day. I found a job here in Columbus, GA and my first day had tornado/severe thunderstorms all over the place! Since then, I have had to forecast for snow on Christmas.... an ice storm.... and another near brush with snow that I forecasted pretty well... I'm preparing for Severe Weather Season here and am going to brush up on all the Met stuff this week since it's going to be a VERY quiet week... and some warmer temperatures for this Florida boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I have noticed the models indicating something for late next week as well. It will be kind of nice to get in a SW flow, It has been a while. January had lots of clippers over here. 0z 156 gfs has strong L in se MN but not much qpf progged right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 0z 156 gfs has strong L in se MN but not much qpf progged right now. ukmet has an absolute bomb at 144 most likely overdone but if it is strengthening at that time like the gfs has it could be a pretty significant blizzard in the upper plains/midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ukmet has an absolute bomb at 144 most likely overdone but if it is strengthening at that time like the gfs has it could be a pretty significant blizzard in the upper plains/midwest. euro/ggem little further n with it but it does look like it could get interesting later next week...GFK has a better shot at the frozen precip than my area but i think ND is due to get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 ukmet has an absolute bomb at 144 most likely overdone but if it is strengthening at that time like the gfs has it could be a pretty significant blizzard in the upper plains/midwest. Euro looks more ominous too initially with that leading S/W ejecting out of the Rockies--but it is eventually a tad slower and has a negative interaction with the northern stream in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Euro looks more ominous too initially with that leading S/W ejecting out of the Rockies--but it is eventually a tad slower and has a negative interaction with the northern stream in Canada. Ya it is a bit funky with its lead S/W it never really amplifies like the other models have it, euro actually weaken the low as it moves east. You're absolutely right about the northern stream that northern wave acts to retard the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 If that northern stream wave is weaker or further north it'll have quite the storm over the upper plains we'll have to see if the king is right about the s/w rounding the PV i doubt it has a good handle as of right now and any of the model solutions are valid at this time the interaction between the north and the south may take a bit to resolve. This southern wave can be seen on the northern hemisphere 500 mb pattern and shouldn't be 2 tough for the globals to handle it'll be the northern stream that gives the models problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yeah, looking at that potential storm as well.. some GFS ensemble members show an interesting set up for the Red River valley of the Dakotas for Friday.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf162.html Still lots of uncertainty with lots of spread among the GFS/EC/GGEM/etc.. but will be interesting to see how this unfolds. RRV is very nervous with any big pcpn systems between now and April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'm just focusing on the short term warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 6Z GFS appears to have more precip than the 0Z. Quite a strong low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ukmet has an absolute bomb at 144 most likely overdone but if it is strengthening at that time like the gfs has it could be a pretty significant blizzard in the upper plains/midwest. Nice looking Bermuda High feature there... time to break out the shorts and sun glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yowzers--GFS came in much more amplified in the height field with the S/W aloft and is much stronger with the surface low/low level wind fields. GFS has over 70 knots winds at 850 hpa in ND on Sunday behind the front with rather steep nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yowzers--GFS came in much more amplified in the height field with the S/W aloft and is much stronger with the surface low/low level wind fields. GFS has over 70 knots winds at 850 hpa in ND on Sunday behind the front with rather steep nearly dry adiabatic. so what would this mean for surface winds in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 so what would this mean for surface winds in that area? More amplified wave aloft has greater low level cyclogenesis potential--and stronger surface low and low level wind fields. Increases both gust and sustained wind potential where the inversion is wiped out closer to the cyclone. 12Z GFS is amped though and much stronger than earlier runs--goes sub 984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Of course not all this will be mixing down--but the 850 winds in ND are screaming. Select soundings from ND wipe the inversion out--this one is not dry adiabatic but would support decent mixing from aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I hope we get some discussion going in a day or so about the storm potential late next week...all models been showing this for several runs. 12z gfs/ukie still showing the more southern track..12z ggem still north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ^I agree it would be nice to get a discussion going on this in a couple days. BTW what does the latest 12Z UKMET have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 ^I agree it would be nice to get a discussion going on this in a couple days. BTW what does the latest 12Z UKMET have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The UKMET is pretty deep. From what I can see the Euro looks more north and stronger and it really blows up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 As time progresses there might also be the need for two threads on this system...one for the snow and one for possible svr wx. Dews of 50's progged as far north as central IL with CAPE of 500 on GFS. Might bear watching from central IL on southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The UKMET is pretty deep. From what I can see the Euro looks more north and stronger and it really blows up in Canada. euro brings down another arctic chill behind the storm...looking like ND & n MN may have blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 As time progresses there might also be the need for two threads on this system...one for the snow and one for possible svr wx. Dews of 50's progged as far north as central IL with CAPE of 500 on GFS. Might bear watching from central IL on southward. Perhaps time for a separate "Northern/Central Plains" regional forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Yowzers--GFS came in much more amplified in the height field with the S/W aloft and is much stronger with the surface low/low level wind fields. GFS has over 70 knots winds at 850 hpa in ND on Sunday behind the front with rather steep nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 252 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2011 HIGH WIND PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRACK OF SFC LOW IS IDEAL FOR HIGH WINDS. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55-65 KNOTS...WITH 50 KNOTS AT 925MB. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND A PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 15-20MB/6HR PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FA BY 06Z MON. FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL TO 925MB...AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL TO 850MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 850MB POSSIBLE. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH) IS INCREASING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 252 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2011 HIGH WIND PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG SPEEDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRACK OF SFC LOW IS IDEAL FOR HIGH WINDS. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 55-65 KNOTS...WITH 50 KNOTS AT 925MB. THERE IS A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND A PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 15-20MB/6HR PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FA BY 06Z MON. FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL TO 925MB...AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL TO 850MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 850MB POSSIBLE. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH) IS INCREASING. NAM is still laying turds--18Z GFS still dropping the bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 NAM is still laying turds--18Z GFS still dropping the bombs. Can you shorten the thread title by making the states who are spelled out into abbreviations? The length of the thread title messes with the board for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 reguarding the late week storm...12z ukie goes nuts with it starting around sioux falls at 108 then over the mn arrowhead at 120. 12z gfs still consistent with track and ggem just sucks for anyone in the dakotas/mn for snow, keeps the main storm n of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think the GGEM is the outlier. The GFS QPF isn't all that impressive but that could be underdone from what I have heard. What does the UKIE say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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