Plains Weather Discussion

[baroclinic_instability]

Wave clouds are really cool. Thanks for sharing that Youtube video. I have never seen a time lapse like that. I see the lenticular clouds or wave clouds on many days. It's weird, you can see changes in the clouds, but many times the edge is right near my location at Fort Collins. Sometimes they are really beautiful, especially at sunset. Sometimes they are thick enough to block the sunshine, and then it's 10 degrees colder than predicted, if there's no strong wind to mix things up.

No problem! Personally I am fascinated by mountain waves and mountain dynamics in general. And I hear you on the clouds effecting mixing/thermals. I don't envy the Denver office (or any office and locale in the lee of the continental divide)--it can be quite tough forecasting exactly where the waves setup--which of course can have huge implications on inversions/mixing and surface temperatures.

[Derek30]

I have had about the same. Lots of clippers. Do you get much from lakes cutters very often or is most the snow to your east and south with them?

No. Lake cutters miss me well to the south and east. Clippers are where it's at. We also get the odd Montana or Colorado Low.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of major Plains snowstorms and deep South severe weather outbreaks in the coming weeks as the West Coast ridge continues to build east..

[mnweather]

No. Lake cutters miss me well to the south and east. Clippers are where it's at. We also get the odd Montana or Colorado Low.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of major Plains snowstorms and deep South severe weather outbreaks in the coming weeks as the West Coast ridge continues to build east..

I can't wait for more snow either. We'll have to see what happens this spring. Hopefully something big. I hope it is better than last year. That was terrible. No snow from mid Feb- early May.

[k***]

[Siberian Express]

Well, that should help the winter wheat crop.

[k***]

Really feeling the sun angle today.

[baroclinic_instability]

Really feeling the sun angle today.

Yeah me too--nice having longer days. We are getting close to spring--this upcoming pattern will be nice after this prolonged cold.

[fargoflooding]

The upper midwest might have extreme weather, but it is far from boring. Honestly, what brings me here is the flood talk, but that is the only part of our weather that I do not like. I love the change of seasons... and even the extreme cold. How can a person ice fish without extreme cold?

I am new to the community, but look forward to talking to you all! Oh... and I am in Fargo, ND.

[cmichweather]

The upper midwest might have extreme weather, but it is far from boring. Honestly, what brings me here is the flood talk, but that is the only part of our weather that I do not like. I love the change of seasons... and even the extreme cold. How can a person ice fish without extreme cold?

I am new to the community, but look forward to talking to you all! Oh... and I am in Fargo, ND.

hey nice to have you i'm a meteorologist up in grand forks, going to UND getting my masters. We'll have to see what these warm temperatures do but we might be able to melt a fairly significant amount of water off before we refreeze.

[baroclinic_instability]

The upper midwest might have extreme weather, but it is far from boring. Honestly, what brings me here is the flood talk, but that is the only part of our weather that I do not like. I love the change of seasons... and even the extreme cold. How can a person ice fish without extreme cold?

I am new to the community, but look forward to talking to you all! Oh... and I am in Fargo, ND.

hey nice to have you i'm a meteorologist up in grand forks, going to UND getting my masters. We'll have to see what these warm temperatures do but we might be able to melt a fairly significant amount of water off before we refreeze.

Yeah welcome--I went to UND too--it is nice to have a fellow North Dakotan on the boards.

[fargoflooding]

hey nice to have you i'm a meteorologist up in grand forks, going to UND getting my masters. We'll have to see what these warm temperatures do but we might be able to melt a fairly significant amount of water off before we refreeze.

I was noticing we are going to have some real moderate temps next week. I would imagine this is actually going to be good for flood prospects in the area AS LONG as it refreezes. I am actually a little nervous as I am going on vacation the following week and my house is very close to the Red.

[k***]

It seems like the Red river floods more frequently than any other river in the country.

[baroclinic_instability]

It seems like the Red river floods more frequently than any other river in the country.

It floods a lot. The big problem is the "Red River Valley" is actually not a valley at all-- but it is a natural flood-plain with a bunch of cities built right in it (Fargo and Grand Forks being the largest) and leftover lake bed of the ancient Lake Agassiz. Moreover--the Red River flows north--so typically the river naturally starts to melt farther S and that flow gets jammed as it flows northward towards the Canadian border owing to ice jams, etc. Throw in long, cold winters and it can get bad in spring if there are no early thaws to melt off some of the extra before the big late spring thaw develops.

[k***]

It floods a lot. The big problem is the "Red River Valley" is actually not a valley at all-- but it is a natural flood-plain with a bunch of cities built right in it (Fargo and Grand Forks being the largest) and leftover lake bed of the ancient Lake Agassiz. Moreover--the Red River flows north--so typically the river naturally starts to melt farther S and that flow gets jammed as it flows northward towards the Canadian border owing to ice jams, etc. Throw in long, cold winters and it can get bad in spring if there are no early thaws to melt off some of the extra before the big late spring thaw develops.

What kind of levee system do they have?

[fargoflooding]

Not enough apparently.

[baroclinic_instability]

What kind of levee system do they have?

The big cities of Fargo and Grand Forks have good levees--especially after the 1997 historic flood that nearly destroyed Grand Forks. The GFK levee is higher, I believe, than the Fargo levee. Some areas in Fargo are still prone--but it is the small cities that don't have the money to build large levees that suffer.

[fargoflooding]

The big cities of Fargo and Grand Forks have good levees--especially after the 1997 historic flood that nearly destroyed Grand Forks. The GFK levee is higher, I believe, than the Fargo levee. Some areas in Fargo are still prone--but it is the small cities that don't have the money to build large levees that suffer.

Grand Forks does very well after 1997 and so does Whapeton/Breck. Unfortunately, the rest of the communities up and down the valley do not fare well, including Fargo. Fargo has made some improvements, but for several years now we have temporary dikes that are put up almost right in the downtown area. Streets are closed down and many businesses lose out not only because of traffic issues, but the city asks (or orders) businesses to close down so that citizens can go sandbag.

We did it right in Grand Forks, but Fargo is far from ok. We are far more prepared than 2 years ago, but far from ok. Most of the small cities in the valley are not ok.

[k***]

Ok, so these cities have been around for how many years? A 100+, right? Why haven't they already fixed it decades ago?

[fargoflooding]

Ok, so these cities have been around for how many years? A 100+, right? Why haven't they already fixed it decades ago?

Simple answer is that it has gotten worse. The record was set in 2009, but it had not been beat since 1897. There had been flooding after that, but there were things done to remedy that before my time. They used to have businesses right on the river, but now it is basically a park with a huge dike behind it. One of the major parks in Fargo is called Island Park and my understanding is that it is called that because that is where people used to go during severe flooding... the island. So we have had flooding, but not in the likes (and continual years) that we have seen for 100+ years.

When the flood of 1997 happened (the one where GF went under), it was marketed as the 100 year flood. The next year was not bad (or as far as my recollection). There were a few times in the past decade (prior to 2009) where clay dikes had been put up and whatnot, but it was a matter of economics. I remember looking at an article in the paper comparing the costs of putting up the occasional clay dike vs permanent protection and the temporary fix won every time. In fact, I bought my house close to the river in 2005 and although the 1997 flood was of concern, the thought was "well, the 100 year flood probably wont hit in the near future again."

Well... 2009 comes. Disaster. My block was like a war zone... and I have been in a real war zone.

Now we are trying to fix it. Unfortunately, there is so much rabble rabble and bearacracy that I doubt anything will be done for 15 years, unless the city of Fargo goes under. Devastation of the largest ND city can't be good for our state.

There is much speculation as to why it has gotten worse. I would imagine climate change is one. The way agriculture drains water has been speculated as a problem by many. The Devils Lake problems are certainly going to effect the rest of the area.

As a summary, we have had flooding as an issue for a long time, but nothing like we have had the past few years. Hopefully we can fix it before too long.

[cmichweather]

Ok, so these cities have been around for how many years? A 100+, right? Why haven't they already fixed it decades ago?

Flood levels like this have never been seen. This region is so far above their annual precip over the past few decades that it is way to flat for the land to get the water out. Thats why devils lake is at it's highest levels ever, and it started back in the 70's but here's an example. In March 1993, Devils

Lake had a surface area of 44,230 acres. At its June 2010 record elevation, Devils Lake covered about 182,240 acres – an increase of 138,010 inundated acres. This area has never seen water like this, after 1997 the government gave GF billions of dollars to build our dike system we are protected to levels +6-9 feet above record levels (60-63 feet). Fargo hasn't received this funding and really has to build there own dikes that are reimbursed at a later date. None of these cities can build multi billion dollar dike systems or diversions without federal assistance. They haven't had to deal with these type of floods til recently on a such regular basis.

[cmichweather]

Simple answer is that it has gotten worse. The record was set in 2009, but it had not been beat since 1897. There had been flooding after that, but there were things done to remedy that before my time. They used to have businesses right on the river, but now it is basically a park with a huge dike behind it. One of the major parks in Fargo is called Island Park and my understanding is that it is called that because that is where people used to go during severe flooding... the island. So we have had flooding, but not in the likes (and continual years) that we have seen for 100+ years.

When the flood of 1997 happened (the one where GF went under), it was marketed as the 100 year flood. The next year was not bad (or as far as my recollection). There were a few times in the past decade (prior to 2009) where clay dikes had been put up and whatnot, but it was a matter of economics. I remember looking at an article in the paper comparing the costs of putting up the occasional clay dike vs permanent protection and the temporary fix won every time. In fact, I bought my house close to the river in 2005 and although the 1997 flood was of concern, the thought was "well, the 100 year flood probably wont hit in the near future again."

Well... 2009 comes. Disaster. My block was like a war zone... and I have been in a real war zone.

Now we are trying to fix it. Unfortunately, there is so much rabble rabble and bearacracy that I doubt anything will be done for 15 years, unless the city of Fargo goes under. Devastation of the largest ND city can't be good for our state.

There is much speculation as to why it has gotten worse. I would imagine climate change is one. The way agriculture drains water has been speculated as a problem by many. The Devils Lake problems are certainly going to effect the rest of the area.

As a summary, we have had flooding as an issue for a long time, but nothing like we have had the past few years. Hopefully we can fix it before too long.

I really wonder what is going to happen when the natural outlet is met, who fargo could handle a flood fight when dealing from runoff from the lake. I think we just have to see if when the -PDO pattern takes hold if it can drop temps at all or if agw is really in affect. The cold -PDO would most likely decrease precip in the region.

[cmichweather]

Simple answer is that it has gotten worse. The record was set in 2009, but it had not been beat since 1897. There had been flooding after that, but there were things done to remedy that before my time. They used to have businesses right on the river, but now it is basically a park with a huge dike behind it. One of the major parks in Fargo is called Island Park and my understanding is that it is called that because that is where people used to go during severe flooding... the island. So we have had flooding, but not in the likes (and continual years) that we have seen for 100+ years.

When the flood of 1997 happened (the one where GF went under), it was marketed as the 100 year flood. The next year was not bad (or as far as my recollection). There were a few times in the past decade (prior to 2009) where clay dikes had been put up and whatnot, but it was a matter of economics. I remember looking at an article in the paper comparing the costs of putting up the occasional clay dike vs permanent protection and the temporary fix won every time. In fact, I bought my house close to the river in 2005 and although the 1997 flood was of concern, the thought was "well, the 100 year flood probably wont hit in the near future again."

Well... 2009 comes. Disaster. My block was like a war zone... and I have been in a real war zone.

Now we are trying to fix it. Unfortunately, there is so much rabble rabble and bearacracy that I doubt anything will be done for 15 years, unless the city of Fargo goes under. Devastation of the largest ND city can't be good for our state.

There is much speculation as to why it has gotten worse. I would imagine climate change is one. The way agriculture drains water has been speculated as a problem by many. The Devils Lake problems are certainly going to effect the rest of the area.

As a summary, we have had flooding as an issue for a long time, but nothing like we have had the past few years. Hopefully we can fix it before too long.

ya i would think that the most important fact is that after the recent stretch of flooding i believe the army corp has raised 100 year flood levels by at least 2 feet and 500 year levels by 4 feet its just something that hasn't ever been seen before.

[Siberian Express]

I really wonder what is going to happen when the natural outlet is met, who fargo could handle a flood fight when dealing from runoff from the lake. I think we just have to see if when the -PDO pattern takes hold if it can drop temps at all or if agw is really in affect. The cold -PDO would most likely decrease precip in the region.

well, concerning the "Valley", I was detailed to the area after the 90's event to assist with recovery operations. The one thing I noticed, being from the Hiawatha Valley, was - where is the valley? It was amazing to me how 'table top flat' it was and upon seeing the River in Wap/Breck area that essentially looked like a creek to me, could have did so much damage.

The other thing you notice, is the fertility of the soils in the valley. As Baro said, it's an old lake bed with great soils. Over the years, as land under tillage increased, more and more drain tiles (de-watering systems) have been installed to essentially "drain" the land to allow for efficient farming of increasing area. Now, I'm not a hydrological expert, but I would think that the loss of wetlands and increased tile draining has had some impact on the situation. I do believe it has been looked at, but in farm country this is a contentious issue.

[fargoflooding]

I

well, concerning the "Valley", I was detailed to the area after the 90's event to assist with recovery operations. The one thing I noticed, being from the Hiawatha Valley, was - where is the valley? It was amazing to me how 'table top flat' it was and upon seeing the River in Wap/Breck area that essentially looked like a creek to me, could have did so much damage.

The other thing you notice, is the fertility of the soils in the valley. As Baro said, it's an old lake bed with great soils. Over the years, as land under tillage increased, more and more drain tiles (de-watering systems) have been installed to essentially "drain" the land to allow for efficient farming of increasing area. Now, I'm not a hydrological expert, but I would think that the loss of wetlands and increased tile draining has had some impact on the situation. I do believe it has been looked at, but in farm country this is a contentious issue.

If you ask many in the area, they say that drain tiling actually HELPS the flooding. This makes no sense to me..... not at all, but would love to hear the explanation in more detail. I have often wondered if a controlled drainage system would help. Just slap a cap on these tubes coming out of the field and the state dictates what regions can let the water flow.

And you are right, it is flat as heck around here. That means that when it does flood, it can go far. It does not, however, get very deep.

[prinsburg_wx]

-9 here but the warmer air just to the west with 20's & 30's out in the dakotas.

[mnweather]

I Falls already -18. I am at 3. Not too cold I guess.

[k***]

i'm pumped about returning to the 60's next week.

[baroclinic_instability]

NAM has a significant wind event for ND Sunday night with 50-55+ kts mixing down as the energetic wave passes through Canada. Impressive stuff.

[blizznd]

I saw that as well....quite windy Sunday evening behind low. Sure does look warm Sunday with favorable west wind for the valley to warm things up. Could be 40....wouldnt be suprised.... There remains consistent signs of a snow event in the area next Friday-early Saturday....we will see...but most models have had something. Nothing huge but perhaps signs pointing to a return to a stormier pattern....

[baroclinic_instability]

I saw that as well....quite windy Sunday evening behind low. Sure does look warm Sunday with favorable west wind for the valley to warm things up. Could be 40....wouldnt be suprised.... There remains consistent signs of a snow event in the area next Friday-early Saturday....we will see...but most models have had something. Nothing huge but perhaps signs pointing to a return to a stormier pattern....

It will be an interesting wind event to follow. And I agree--those temps are going to really climb down in the valley Sunday. A nice "Red River Chinook" if there ever was one.