Buckeye05 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 New 00z GFS still develops a secondary low. Gonna be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 New 00z GFS still develops a secondary low. Gonna be interesting to watch. It's more the primary low pressure, actually, as the UL energy translates eastward and induces leeside cyclogenesis, which then speeds NE and rapidly deepens as the associated vort max slows down and tightens due to the long wave trough being squeezed by the ridge on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 It's more the primary low pressure, actually, as the UL energy translates eastward and induces leeside cyclogenesis, which then speeds NE and rapidly deepens as the associated vort max slows down and tightens due to the long wave trough being squeezed by the ridge on the east side. Yeah it deepens pretty intensely too. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 New 00z GFS still develops a secondary low. Gonna be interesting to watch. Definitely interesting... but instability looks meager, to say the least, if you believe the GFS thermodynamics. With the brunt of the cold air aloft sliding north and west of the warm sector, as usual, this isn't difficult to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Definitely interesting... but instability looks meager, to say the least, if you believe the GFS thermodynamics. With the brunt of the cold air aloft sliding north and west of the warm sector, as usual, this isn't difficult to believe. For the Plains on Wednesday, I'm assuming you are referring to? Also, that's a pretty big "if" you are highlighting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 For the Plains on Wednesday, I'm assuming you are referring to? It generally looks that way for both Wednesday and Thursday on this run, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Yeah it deepens pretty intensely too. Impressive. 0z ukie takes the L from KS to 981 L in extreme n MN at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 GFS is still on its own, CMC and ECMWF still eject two separate moderately energetic waves. Hard to get excited about this until something remotely supports what the GFS is progging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 0z ukie takes the L from KS to 981 L in extreme n MN at day 6 Can you post maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Can you post maps? Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Euro still looks flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012 VALID 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN /00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED VS OTHER GUIDANCE/. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAYS 5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD AND ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AUTUMNAL AIRMASS...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY ON DAY 6/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH AMPLITUDE/TIMING PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME. ..GUYER.. 10/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 HPC is back to "meh, we cannot totally discount the GFS solution." In other words, take two aspirin and call me in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 06 GFS is back to a very Euroish type of solution... lost the big bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Still looks like we could see something, just not as far south and not as ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Still looks like we could see something, just not as far south and not as ominous. Lots can still change, with such a large trough, there would be many embedded vort maxes and s/w that can easily be missed by the models, which can have huge impacts on how dynamic the resulting low level response can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 King Euro at day four usually has the details figured out, just maybe not the low level thermals. I sure hope we at least get a pile of rain out of this but I'm not holding my breath. Our ground is literally like concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 0Z GGEM now has a major storm for the n plains next week...showing what the gfs/ukie had the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 0Z GGEM now has a major storm for the n plains next week...showing what the gfs/ukie had the other day. 00z Euro now going *boom* 998 low over SE Colorado at hour 96... To a 988 or so over the arrowhead of MN at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 0Z GGEM now has a major storm for the n plains next week...showing what the gfs/ukie had the other day. You can put the ECMWF in the same camp as the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 You can put the ECMWF in the same camp as the GGEM yeah, euro caves but now does show a nice band of snow into w MN for next thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 haha Euro at 240 is just awesome for the East Coast. What's it do, combine with a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 haha Euro at 240 is just awesome for the East Coast. What's it do, combine with a hurricane? Yep that would be an interesting solution. Brings down the 0 degree 850 temps all the way down to the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 haha Euro at 240 is just awesome for the East Coast. What's it do, combine with a hurricane? GGEM does at 192, Euro does not, just that amplifying eastern trough closes off and begins to lift northeastward (close to a Miller A track), there could be some kind of Fujiwara interaction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ..DISCUSSION IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR AUTUMN...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON DAYS 4-5 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INITIALLY...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK COULD SPREAD EASTWARD/POSSIBLY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...PERHAPS AS A FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...LINGERING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS. ..GUYER.. 10/21/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Incredible moisture return underway in the Plains... upper 60s dew points have overspread much of OK/TX already, and should reach eastern portions of KS/NE later today. All beneath > 20 C temps at H85... epic waste of theta-e for late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Definite north trend. Iowa and Wisconsin look kinda interesting to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Based on solely the 00z NAM, the northern target looks interesting, but I'm not sold on a huge tornado threat. The moisture looks to be there and the instability will probably be more than sufficient, but I'm not loving the shear profile when the best instability is in place. EHI values are impressive, but the values seem to be inflated mainly because of the instability and not so much the helicity. 0-1 km helicity in Iowa is not very promising, but the 0-3 km is OK. Right now, everything looks fairly linear to me. The 850 vectors look great at 18z but start turning too much at 21z when the best ingredients are together. This system is a bit more interesting to me, northern Plains-wise, than the last one, however. This has just been a quick cursory glance, however, as I refuse to look at these setups closely sooner than around 36-48 hours at this point, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Best shear and upper level support seems to be lagging behind the best moisture/instability as well. Familiar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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