Minnesota Meso Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Euro: GEM link.....http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=na&mod=gemglb〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 To round it out, the GFS at 192: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 GFS showing a monster storm system mid to late next week. Would give the Northern Plains up into MB/ON a significant rain/snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 441 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HALLIDAY 47.35N 102.34W 10/17/2012 M78 MPH DUNN ND TRAINED SPOTTER SPOTTER HAS WEATHER CHANNEL WIND EQUIPMENT...MEASURED 77.7 MPH AT 253PM CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 00z GFS is virtually identical to 12z, with a progressive upper flow pattern associated with this large upper trough off the west coast, eventually ejecting into the Central Plains. Euro still has it, but is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 12z sounding from Rapid City. 75 kts just off the deck. Nasty. Pierre has been gusting over 50 MPH past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Perhaps this storm should have a name. Hurricane OCTOBER Pierre South Dakota. Peak wind 64 knots! KPIR 180853Z AUTO 31039G54KT 10SM SCT050 OVC075 09/M03 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 32064/0832 SLP008 T00891028 53000 Edit: I saw a local storm report from Rapid City SD, of 81mph. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The severe threat for Sunday into Monday still looks pretty intriguing for the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 That's some impressive low level theta-e advection, although the cap looks pretty strong. Also, WRT the western upper trough, a lot of this is going to depend on how fast the succeeding ULL (the one behind this one) translates eastward. The runs of the models that have a more progressive pattern have consistently been slower with that upper feature and, in turn, not cutting off the ridge that amplifies in behind and enables a large chunk of the NE Pacific ULL to eject eastward/southeastward. The runs that have lingered the ULL on the West Coast/had a more zonal flow pattern have translated the succeeding ULL more quickly and thus cut off the amplifying East Central Pacific Ridge, with less of an impressive amplification of the downstream upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The lead STJ wave for Sun/Mon does bear watching, but I agree, andy, that the cap looks quite stout. I've yet to see a model breaking out convection in OK/TX on Sunday, when the vertical wind profile looks most interesting. If the wave can speed up a little, maybe we'll see some hailers with nice structure around and after sunset. For mid-week, yesterday's 12z ECMWF proved to be an outlier with its degree of amplification, and no model from either 00z or 12z today is in that ballpark. The severe threat does not look impressive at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Forgot to post this, but that is a fairly significant SLP signal on the 12z GFS ensemble mean for 180 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 00z GFS really bombs that system next week (as in less than 984 mb)...60s sfc dewpoints into Central MN/WI and the 10 degree C dewpoint line at H85 to International Falls in October...wtf? Not to mention the nastiness on the backside...80+ kts at H85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Talking blizzard for parts of the Dakota's of that run verifies, pushing 90kts at 850mb in the CCB, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 00z GFS really bombs that system next week (as in less than 984 mb)...60s sfc dewpoints into Central MN/WI and the 10 degree C dewpoint line at H85 to International Falls in October...wtf? Not to mention the nastiness on the backside...80+ kts at H85? Check out the GEM hours 156-180, attn the PAC NW http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Check out the GEM hours 156-180, attn the PAC NW http://meteocentre.c...&run=00〈=en That is a classic track for an intense windstorm here. It reminds me of a slightly weaker version of the Columbus Day storm of 1962 (in fact, the track is nearly identical), which is one of, if not the worst recorded up here. That said, I'm not favoring the GGEM, considering it doesn't have a lot of support from much else up until this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Hard to believe 60+ dewpoints at the end of October for central MN, but I guess we'll see... I nearly crapped my pants looking at the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Euro is still worlds apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Laughable model agreement, even for this range, with the evolution of this period, although I guess that can be somewhat expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 FWIW, HPC is tossing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 FWIW, HPC is tossing the GFS. Link? I don't recall seeing that in their morning model diagnostics or prelim outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Link? I don't recall seeing that in their morning model diagnostics or prelim outlook. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 458 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012 VALID 12Z TUE OCT 23 2012 - 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 THE MOST AGREEABLE GROUPING OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING/BROADENING OF THE FAIRLY DEEP/AMPLIFIED MEAN TROF NEAR THE WEST COAST AS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. EJECTION OF ONE OR MORE PIECES OF ENERGY FROM THIS MEAN TROF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MEAN SFC FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THRU THE PLAINS... BUT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RESOLVING SUCH FEATURES CAN BE A LOW CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR BEYOND THE DAYS 3-4 TIME FRAME. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE CURRENT RANGE OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLNS IT IS DIFFICULT TO ENDORSE ONE SPECIFIC SCENARIO WITH MUCH ENTHUSIASM. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS STG LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS/NRN TIER BY DAYS 6-7 THU-FRI APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY SCENARIO. ISSUES WITH THE GFS ORIGINATE OVER THE E-CNTRL PAC THRU ALASKA BY MIDWEEK AS THE MODEL IS FARTHEST NWD WITH CLOSING OFF AN UPR HIGH OVER AK WHILE BEING FASTEST WITH AN UNDERCUTTING CLOSED LOW TO THE S BETWEEN 40-45N LATITUDE. THIS EVOLUTION CAUSES THE GFS TO EJECT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE INITIAL WEST COAST TROF INTO THE WEST/PLAINS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS... AND THEN BUILD A RIDGE OF THE WEST COAST BY DAY 7 FRI VERSUS REMAINING GUIDANCE THAT GENERALLY INDICATES FLAT FLOW OR MEAN TROFFING STILL OVER THAT AREA. THE GEFS MEAN IS ESSENTIALLY A COMPROMISE WITH E-CNTRL PAC UNDERCUTTING FLOW AND LIKEWISE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE DOWNSTREAM WITH ONLY MODEST SFC DEVELOPMENT AS SUGGESTED BY OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Ok, I was looking at College of Dupage's site, so it probably hadn't updated there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Video of a dust storm in OK formed by the raging bora wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 12z GFS didn't change much. Synoptic differences between ECMWF/GFS are worlds apart. Worth noting that the GFS has been junk with respect to next weeks blocking across the Pacific, and upstream forcing will have an influence on whether the cold air sinks into the eastern Pac like the ECMWF suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Video of a dust storm in OK formed by the raging bora wind event. Yep. You could easily see it on the solar radiation plots and obs. Pretty cool, but scary (caused a huge pile up on I-35, I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Yep. You could easily see it on the solar radiation plots and obs. Pretty cool, but scary (caused a huge pile up on I-35, I believe). ^^Love the radiation plots. Pretty awesome bora wind event...honestly one of the "best" I have seen in a couple years. Duration, coverage, and intensity combined easily exceed anything from last years fall/winter debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 FOR DAY 4/MONDAY...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH TX/OK TO THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/IL. BY MID-WEEK...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK TO EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY AROUND DAYS 6-7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SHOULD A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EVOLVE AS PER THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS. BUT OVERALL...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY BY MID-WEEK PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Latest GFS run has me interested. Develops a secondary low across the Texas Panhandle and moves it NE across Missouri. Shear, wind profiles, and moisture look decent as well. Curious to see if the this continues to trend or is just a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 18z GFS is, for a lack of a better word, scary. That said, until this complicated and unstable pattern across the Pacific is somewhat figured out, and we see at least some model agreement, this is essentially noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 FOR DAY 4/MONDAY...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH TX/OK TO THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/IL. BY MID-WEEK...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK TO EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY AROUND DAYS 6-7 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SHOULD A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EVOLVE AS PER THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS. BUT OVERALL...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY BY MID-WEEK PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME. The models once again, as can be expected are having a hard time with the transition between the season's, having said that, I have been drooling over the models for the last week. They are trying mightily to bring a big system up towards my area. A weather weenies dream after months of nothing to look at but temp anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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