brettjrob Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Was thinking back to fall Plains setups that seemed mis-timed and remembered this from '07. The hype machine was on overdrive for this one even the night before into the morning of (admittedly, I partook too). An interesting point of comparison, even though the trough had a bit different look: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20071017 The big bust on the 15% hatched tor probs in OK/KS is, IMO, a good example of how low-level veering completely kills tornado potential in the southern Plains, even when low-level shear/SRH remains high. Need to find a way to keep the 850 mb winds no worse than SSW on Saturday to realize tor potential, at least west of the Ozarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 12z GFS is essentially the same as the 00z run, but it also becomes quite active after this initial system, with another s/w right after it. The Pacific Jet also looks poised in behind it. 12z Euro is also rather similar to the 00z, maybe a tad faster and further north with the primary vort max, it's leaving the better thermodynamics behind as it lifts northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Committing to a $500 ticket right now for this would be bordering on insanity, IMO... good call. I'm not sure I make enough money to do it for anything less than 2-3 days of ops in good territory which in the fall is probably somewhat unusual. I am itching to get back out though... fortunately high airline prices make it easier to be rational. Sat looks like it could be fairly linear to me at this pt. Not usually a fan of stacked lows anyway. But it's something and could get better with a shift which is more than can be said for the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Sat looks like it could be fairly linear to me at this pt. Not usually a fan of stacked lows anyway. But it's something and could get better with a shift which is more than can be said for the past few months. Yeah, something like the 12z CMC could work, and if the GFS' progressive bias turns out to be confirmed, then a solution like that might not be completely farfetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Yeah, something like the 12z CMC could work, and if the GFS' progressive bias turns out to be confirmed, then a solution like that might not be completely farfetched. That really came out of left field... H5 looks similar to the GFS run a few nights ago I was drooling over. The Euro is really grating me, though... just slow enough to trash Friday, but Saturday is still junky-looking. Worst thing is it's been the most consistent with timing the past couple days, and is currently a GFS/GGEM compromise. FWIW, Mike Umscheid at DDC, arguably the king of High Plains forecasting, is getting excited about Friday. Per the GFS, it does look quite intriguing along the TX/NM border into SE CO given insolation and well-timed initiation. My gut and experience still tell me a faster solution to bolster Friday's chances is the best bet for a non-messy/junky event, so... go GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'm not so sure I would consider the Euro a compromise between the two regarding the trough's latitudinal position, however, considering it is rather north of both the GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'd definitely put my eggs in the Friday basket for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'm not so sure I would consider the Euro a compromise between the two regarding the trough's latitudinal position, however, considering it is rather north of both the GFS and GGEM. True... I was referring more to timing. In reality, the timing of the main disturbance is fairly similar between the 12z GFS/EC, but the EC is more positive-tilt and doesn't sweep the Pacific front through the southern Plains as early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 FWIW, Mike Umscheid at DDC, arguably the king of High Plains forecasting, is getting excited about Friday. Per the GFS, it does look quite intriguing along the TX/NM border into SE CO given insolation and well-timed initiation. My gut and experience still tell me a faster solution to bolster Friday's chances is the best bet for a non-messy/junky event, so... go GFS? Brett, do you have a link to his thoughts/discussion? I only see on the latest AFD that he wrote the synoptis and aviation, but nothing about the upcoming system. Edit: Nevermind! Twitter is a hell of a stalking tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Yeah, and with the 12z Euro more positively-tilted, not all of the vorticity is wrapped into the shortwave, with it getting sheared and a vort max left behind over the panhandles at 18z Saturday ... enough for slightly later forcing than the GFS. Could still work well for central / eastern OK Saturday afternoon. But wow, the CMC is looking nice. Wouldn't mind seeing the GFS start to slide in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Brett, do you have a link to his thoughts/discussion? I only see on the latest AFD that he wrote the synoptis and aviation, but nothing about the upcoming system. From http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mike-Umscheid-Photography/136310549772364?ref=ts&fref=ts "Friday, Oct 12 continues to look impressive for severe weather (perhaps a regional outbreak?) south of the quasi-stationary front. West Texas along the dryline/Pacific cold front looks quite inviting for a storm chase. I think anywhere from Springfield, CO south to Midland, TX is in play at this point." Does mention concern about a slower solution in a recent comment and favors well into NM. I'm nervous about pulling quality moisture that far west that early, if that's what it comes down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Yeah, and with the 12z Euro more positively-tilted, not all of the vorticity is wrapped into the shortwave, with it getting sheared and a vort max left behind over the panhandles at 18z Saturday ... enough for slightly later forcing than the GFS. Could still work well for central / eastern OK Saturday afternoon. But wow, the CMC is looking nice. Wouldn't mind seeing the GFS start to slide in that direction. ...Which has been a trend this year it seems... Of course, if it does happen to slow into NM for Friday, that would possibly make Saturday more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Also, FWIW, several of the GFS ensemble members seem to have a more favorable setup on Saturday along the lines of the GGEM OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Also, FWIW, several of the GFS ensemble members seem to have a more favorable setup on Saturday along the lines of the GGEM OP. You should see how often the GFS ensemble members give the DC area big snowstorms in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 You should see how often the GFS ensemble members give the DC area big snowstorms in the winter. I'll be sure to count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'm pretty interested to see how this plays out. October events seem to be almost a bit more common in the past few years (2007,2009,2010) or maybe I'm just paying attention more. I can't really think of a major plains event in October besides maybe October 1966 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I'm pretty interested to see how this plays out. October events seem to be almost a bit more common in the past few years (2007,2009,2010) or maybe I'm just paying attention more. I can't really think of a major plains event in October besides maybe October 1966 though. Climo definitely favors the Midwest and Dixie Alley for the second season. The most recent major Plains events were probably 2001-10-09 and 1998-10-04. The latter actually set the record for the most tornadoes in OK on a calendar day until it was shattered by May 3 the next spring. More recently, somewhat-prolific individual supercells occurred on 7 Nov 2011 (SW OK) and 24 Oct 2010 (DFW area). From Jon Finch's database, a few others of note: 1949-10-09 (paths, H5) 1959-10-29 (paths, H5) 1971-10-17 (paths, H5) Wasn't able to find anything from 1966... do you know what the date was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Yeah, the 10/4/98 and 10/09/01 events came to mind especially in terms of Southern Plains setups for the Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Climo definitely favors the Midwest and Dixie Alley for the second season. The most recent major Plains events were probably 2001-10-09 and 1998-10-04. The latter actually set the record for the most tornadoes in OK on a calendar day until it was shattered by May 3 the next spring. More recently, somewhat-prolific individual supercells occurred on 7 Nov 2011 (SW OK) and 24 Oct 2010 (DFW area). From Jon Finch's database, a few others of note: 1949-10-09 (paths, H5) 1959-10-29 (paths, H5) 1971-10-17 (paths, H5) Wasn't able to find anything from 1966... do you know what the date was? Thanks for the links, pretty fascinating. The 1966 event I was referring too was the October 14, 1966 outbreak which produced the Belmond, IA homecoming tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 This morning's Euro offered a glimmer of hope for a return to active weather in the medium range. The ensemble mean is relatively zonal, but tending toward a western trough/eastern ridge configuration, so just something to watch the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 12z Euro today seems to be going in a similar direction...although I'm wondering if the remnants of Paul could complicate this somewhat. Verbatim: Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 This morning's Euro offered a glimmer of hope for a return to active weather in the medium range. The ensemble mean is relatively zonal, but tending toward a western trough/eastern ridge configuration, so just something to watch the next few days. 12z Euro today seems to be going in a similar direction...although I'm wondering if the remnants of Paul could complicate this somewhat. Verbatim: Damn... Glad someone got this going, potential exists for all types of weather here...severe possible, but mostly wintry weather as the remnants of the polar vortex over AK push west as the large Bering sea block forms. We will see...the ECMWF seems awfully quick pushing out the large cutoff low over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Not sure I by into such an amplified solution at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 The euro cold shot at the end of next week looks impressive. Maybe someone out west looks to cash in on some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 High wind event likely "tonight-thursday" for central & western dakotas. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 239 PM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...LEMMON...BISON... BELLE FOURCHE...FAITH...SPEARFISH...RAPID CITY...WALL...STURGIS... UNION CENTER...COLONY 239 PM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH DURING THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH AND GUSTS TO 70 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...VERY STRONG WINDS NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING WEST...AND BEGINNING CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARNING EXTENDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO AND REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND 4 AM CDT. DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...THERE WILL BE EPISODES WHEN THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. INITIALLY...THE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUITE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF A LULL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN PICKING UP DURING THE NOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE A BIT...THEN RETURN AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH WINDS THIS STRONG...MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...WILL ENCOUNTER DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WORKING IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS ROOFTOPS AND TOWERS WILL BE AT RISK. INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS ROOFS AND POWER LINES MAY BECOME DAMAGED. ANY FIRES WOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 High wind event likely "tonight-thursday" for central & western dakotas. Most impressive bora wind event we have seen in over a year. Typically these are not abnormal, but last year changed all that. These are great events for both the locations just leeside of the Rockies as well as the HIgh Plains, especially as the upper low deepens and rotates back westward. Flow becomes constricted between upper low and mtn barriers and you can even see barrier jet like formations. Outside shot a few locations hit 70 MPH across SD. Buffalo Ridge is usually a favored location...as is Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Glad someone got this going, potential exists for all types of weather here...severe possible, but mostly wintry weather as the remnants of the polar vortex over AK push west as the large Bering sea block forms. We will see...the ECMWF seems awfully quick pushing out the large cutoff low over the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. Not sure I by into such an amplified solution at this juncture. It appears the 12z GFS/CMC today have trended towards a more progressive solution, ejecting a large part of the NE Pacific ULL eastward into the Central Plains. Euro at 7 days: 8 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Boy, does that look tasty. I wouldn't complain about a shot at redeeming the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Boy, does that look tasty. I wouldn't complain about a shot at redeeming the last system. Speaking of tasty, check out that LL baroclinic zone...and it also ejects another part of that ULL southeastward after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 H+180 on the 17/12z Euro: nice, wide warm sector with 60-65 F Td overspreading OK/KS all the way up into IA and MN/WI... 990 mb sfc low situated in W KS at the triple point... 100+ kt jet streak punching in. I lost enough productivity last week model-watching... ...you have a link to the 12z GGEM that goes out that far, andy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 H+180 on the 17/12z Euro: nice, wide warm sector with 60-65 F Td overspreading OK/KS all the way up into IA and MN/WI... 990 mb sfc low situated in W KS at the triple point... 100+ kt jet streak punching in. I lost enough productivity last week model-watching... ...you have a link to the 12z GGEM that goes out that far, andy? Yeah, it's a bit less amplified, but still has that progressive look to it. And lordy at some of those stats...I'd have a feeling it'd be quite the blizzard on the back side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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