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Plains Weather Discussion


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@12:24PM EDT, Seeing a couple of severe thunderstorms just west of the Chicago area. Pretty unstable indices across this region. LI's are around -12, SFC CAPE around 3,100 j/kg, and the 0-3KM ML CAPE around 78 j/kg. Seeing potential for hail up to 1.5" and wind gusts up to 60mph as it looks like the storms are heading through the Chicago area.

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GFS seems to consistently be progging a s/w ejecting east-northeastward out of the Four Corners towards the end of next week, with a decent amount of moisture available, via several days of LL flow out of the Gulf. The Euro recently jumped on board as well. It remains to be seen if the Gulf Coast high pressure will allow as much of a moisture transport as is currently being progged.

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GFS seems to consistently be progging a s/w ejecting east-northeastward out of the Four Corners towards the end of next week, with a decent amount of moisture available, via several days of LL flow out of the Gulf. The Euro recently jumped on board as well. It remains to be seen if the Gulf Coast high pressure will allow as much of a moisture transport as is currently being progged.

Beat me to it by an hour. Been glancing at this the past few days and just finally thought it worth mentioning tonight, as the timeframe of interest has moved into the 168-hour range. The 06/00z GFS verbatim looks rather impressive (seasonally speaking, of course) for the Southern Plains next Friday. The broad pattern doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that mid-upper 60s surface dew points will be a reality, though. Still, that Four Corners track really grabs my attention any time I see it.

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Very interesting potential event. These cutoff upper lows are such a pain. Just as wave phasing so difficult for models to handle...the "kicking out" of cutoffs equally challenging. Upper block breakdown crucial to timing as well. I would favor slowest solutions at this juncture. If this comes out too fast, low level return flow trajectories will not be sufficient for anything impressive.

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Very interesting potential event. These cutoff upper lows are such a pain. Just as wave phasing so difficult for models to handle...the "kicking out" of cutoffs equally challenging. Upper block breakdown crucial to timing as well. I would favor slowest solutions at this juncture. If this comes out too fast, low level return flow trajectories will not be sufficient for anything impressive.

Noticed this exactly, the longer it waits to eject out the better off the potential could be as the high along the Gulf Coast will be able to move East enough to allow for sufficient return flow.

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Eoro is a lot colder than the 12z GFS. Threat would be more supressed. The old GFS was too progressive with almost every southern stream shortwave in the medium range. Moisture return maybe a problem if the low is as far NW as the 12z GFS.

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