baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 I didn't see any funnels but a few were reported nearby, nice little hailstorm though...took a pic of the hail covering the road this afternoon. Nice picture! We just had a couple of "cold air funnel" type tornadoes last week...what a pain they are. http://www.crh.noaa....urveyapr14_15th Nonetheless, an interesting day of weather up there! Just totally curious...what do you do out there? I am guessing farming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I didn't see any funnels but a few were reported nearby, nice little hailstorm though...took a pic of the hail covering the road this afternoon. Nice picture! I had no idea severe weather was forecast for Minnesota or Iowa today! Tornadoes in the 50s... kind of unusual! Not unheard of though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nice picture! We just had a couple of "cold air funnel" type tornadoes last week...what a pain they are. http://www.crh.noaa....urveyapr14_15th Nonetheless, an interesting day of weather up there! Just totally curious...what do you do out there? I am guessing farming. Yes, we farm...been busy with that so i haven't been on the forum much lately. I thought it was odd of tornadoes with temps in the 50's on sat but they were the cold air type, huh?...but yes, interesting day of weather up here on sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yes, we farm...been busy with that so i haven't been on the forum much lately. I thought it was odd of tornadoes with temps in the 50's on sat but they were the cold air type, huh?...but yes, interesting day of weather up here on sat. Tors are tors, but yeah, they were not the classic mesocyclone tors. These are a pain to forecast since you rarely see circulation on radar. Different dynamic processes are occurring with these. Farming must be hard work. Shakopee used to be a farm town, but it is really growing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Tors are tors, but yeah, they were not the classic mesocyclone tors. These are a pain to forecast since you rarely see circulation on radar. Different dynamic processes are occurring with these. Farming must be hard work. Shakopee used to be a farm town, but it is really growing fast. I have family over in Shakopee, would of never guessed it was a farm town..lol. Even though this wasn't the classic meso tor it was still an awesome storm...lightning to beat hell, wind, hail, little scary for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Surprising agreement for several runs now between the GFS/EC regarding severe potential for Fri-Sat. The H5 pattern is an interesting one that I can't remember seeing much over the past several years, and would seem to favor a threat centered over N/NW TX into portions of OK on Friday. This would be conditional upon sufficient moisture return and heating in the wake of what would likely be antecedent low clouds -- the GFS verbatim indicates moderate to strong CINH over most of the warm sector, for example. Probably too early to start a thread, and I doubt SPC bites on an outlook area yet tonight, but it has my attention if only because IIRC the Red River Valley has largely escaped synoptically-evident severe setups like this since 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What the GFS is showing after it has potential as well, with another jet streak digging on the West Coast. SPC Disc. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012 VALID 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLOW GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD /DAYS 4-7/. INITIALLY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEAST MOVING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INLAND ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND UNCERTAIN SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED/POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...AND INTO DAYS 6-7 FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NORTHWEST TX AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY. ..GUYER.. 04/22/2012 This looks a bit ominous for the aforementioned second wave (120+ kt H3 jet streak coming ashore like that in Late April/Early May is a tad concerning)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 00z GFS looks interesting for (what else) 4/27 in the Plains/Ozarks, from a general synoptics point of view, although there are several factors that I can see that would be potentially inhibiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 00z GFS looks interesting for (what else) 4/27 in the Plains/Ozarks. I think I may have jinxed the model agreement we'd seen a couple days ago by mentioning it last night. Quite a range of solutions now, with the (12z) EC the most amplified and threatening, to my eyes. GFS is a bit flatter and a lot faster, and so shifts the threat more into the forests... GGEM is so flat as to make the threat appear negligible. EDIT: And the new EC has jumped on board with the GFS, for the most part, focusing the threat more along and just east of the I-35 corridor for Friday. Some resemblance to the 14 Apr 2011 event in the H5 pattern, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 12z Euro looked like a potential multi day event, IMO. (Day 1 in the Plains, Day 2 in the GL/OV), although that type of shortwave in the Plains being depicted by the 00z GFS has many times caused trouble... The synoptics/overall trough evolution on the 00z Euro at 120 hrs is very similar to the GFS, btw...although it is stronger with the sfc low and still has the embedded 558 dm contour whereas the GFS has it until 18z and then loses it by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 12z NAM looks ominious if that cap can be broken. Will be interesting to watch how the models handle how that wave comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 LOL at the 18z NAM. Still way faster than the ECMWF/GFS w.r.t. the ejecting PV anomaly Thursday night...12-18 hrs faster. If the NAM verified verbatim...would be a local sig severe weather event across portions of KS/SW NE. I am personally worried that something like the NAM may be possible since the heat dome across the intermountain W will do some damage to the upper PV anomaly as it tracks across...and the phase speed of that PV will have a tendency to increase. Still not buying anything the NAM spits out at this juncture...however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 LOL at the 18z NAM. Still way faster than the ECMWF/GFS w.r.t. the ejecting PV anomaly Thursday night...12-18 hrs faster. If the NAM verified verbatim...would be a local sig severe weather event across portions of KS/SW NE. I am personally worried that something like the NAM may be possible since the heat dome across the intermountain W will do some damage to the upper PV anomaly as it tracks across...and the phase speed of that PV will have a tendency to increase. Still not buying anything the NAM spits out at this juncture...however. Two completely unrelated things: 1. The cap on the NAM looks like perhaps the nastiest I've ever seen in April. The synoptic pattern and kinematics certainly look favorable for a significant severe weather event over the central High Plains, but I'm stuck on the +24-28 C at H85 right now. There might be a narrow window of opportunity close to the triple point around the NE/KS/CO corner, if you take this run verbatim. That said, if the cap strength backs off some over W KS (and the NAM timing is correct to begin with)... oh boy. 2. Where's the best place to get PV charts online? None of my regular sources (TwisterData, IWM, NCEP) have them, and I'd like to start looking at it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Two completely unrelated things: 1. The cap on the NAM looks like perhaps the nastiest I've ever seen in April. The synoptic pattern and kinematics certainly look favorable for a significant severe weather event over the central High Plains, but I'm stuck on the +24-28 C at H85 right now. There might be a narrow window of opportunity close to the triple point around the NE/KS/CO corner, if you take this run verbatim. That said, if the cap strength backs off some over W KS (and the NAM timing is correct to begin with)... oh boy. 2. Where's the best place to get PV charts online? None of my regular sources (TwisterData, IWM, NCEP) have them, and I'd like to start looking at it more. I know, the lack of PV maps is maddening. U.S. forecasters are still heavily reliant on pressure charts. I personally have learned the incredible utility of PV maps the last 2 years or so since I really began to research it. It really doesn't help that most universities only teach pressure charts/QG synoptics. The main PV maps online that I use are at weather.utah.edu. They have NAM regional maps as well as larger view GFS maps. NAM has three CONUS regions in a 4 panel mode: http://weather.utah.edu/ GFS is here: http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NA&d=TS Phil882 has a friend at SUNY Albany that made this site...and it includes PV maps. Site loads slow though. http://www.atmos.alb.../kgriffin/maps/ Ryan Maue has some PV on theta surfaces scattered about his site. http://policlimate.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 BTW, for anyone interested, I wrote a local office case study on the synoptic development of a cyclone using some PV thinking. I am not a researcher...just a forecaster. But hopefully there is some utility in it for other forecasters. https://jasonahsenma...nal_april22.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 18z GFS is substantially faster with ejection Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 18z GFS is substantially faster with ejection Thursday. Yeah going along with a more NAM like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 2. Where's the best place to get PV charts online? None of my regular sources (TwisterData, IWM, NCEP) have them, and I'd like to start looking at it more. Here's a few that relate to IPV or the tropopause http://weather.utah.edu/ http://www.atmos.was...u/~hakim/tropo/ http://paoc.mit.edu/...rop-current.gif Plains weather discussion, i.e., wishes: I'd really really like to see a front stall on Colorado. We gotta get some rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 BTW, for anyone interested, I wrote a local office case study on the synoptic development of a cyclone using some PV thinking. I am not a researcher...just a forecaster. But hopefully there is some utility in it for other forecasters. https://jasonahsenma...nal_april22.pdf The blog you have is great. The entries you have on Octobomb and some other storms from the past couple years are interesting. They are a little technical for a non met maybe like myself but I still enjoy reading them. A good learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 baro and Chinook -- thanks for the links. Would sure be nice to get PV plots on one of the more comprehensive sites with more models and larger images. The NAM isn't giving an inch tonight as far as kicking the wave out early. My feeling is that this limits the overall potential of this period rather significantly, when compared with the slower solutions. Forecast soundings for NW KS, SW NE and NE CO all show an absolutely thermonuclear cap at 28/00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Yes, cap bust is looking exceedingly likely at this point, that thing is ridiculous. H7 temps are pushing 15 degrees across much of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Anybody out here try to see the Northern Lights last night? I saw a post about it late last night on the New England forum. I checked the SWPC web page, and it showed pretty high activity. Northern Lights might have been possible in Colorado or Wyoming, but I didn't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Anybody out here try to see the Northern Lights last night? I saw a post about it late last night on the New England forum. I checked the SWPC web page, and it showed pretty high activity. Northern Lights might have been possible in Colorado or Wyoming, but I didn't see anything. Saw a photo of the northern lights nw of me just across the line in Edwardsburg MI but didn't see them personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Here are NWS Grand Forks weather stories in regards to the April 21st low topped supercell tornadoes in west central Minnesota... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/?n=westcentralmntor120421 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=fgf&product=pns&issuedby=FGF&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Dan R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 No aurora here, but apparently they were seen all the way down into central KS. The NAM is now backing off on the monstrous capping for Thursday, so we could still be looking at an interesting severe weather setup over W KS (there's also been a southward trend with the warm frontal placement). Low-level winds aren't exceptionally strong, but there's plenty of directional shear to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 No aurora here, but apparently they were seen all the way down into central KS. The NAM is now backing off on the monstrous capping for Thursday, so we could still be looking at an interesting severe weather setup over W KS (there's also been a southward trend with the warm frontal placement). Low-level winds aren't exceptionally strong, but there's plenty of directional shear to go around. If this trend continues, and other models follow, i'd be quite concerned. It looks like it could continue on Friday into the Ozarks/South, making for a terribly ironic event possible. To early to jump to conclusions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 NAM is really backing off the capping on this run...and there are some beefy 0-3 km EHI values in the area as well (although that could be primarily factoring the high instability into the equation). FWIW: NAM H7 VV's have some intense signatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 By 03z it gets more intense for SW KS, W OK. That area has got hit hard this year. Sim reflectivity showing precip in this area as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Still a bit of a battle ongoing with the NAM 3-6 hr. faster than the global models with this shortwave. This will make a big difference in the outcome. Both NCEP 4 km WRF runs (NNM and ARW) initiate several discrete supercells in an arc from NW KS to W OK by 00z Fri. If the GFS/EC win out on timing, storm coverage will probably decrease (perhaps entirely), and the shear profiles will be unlikely to impress. Not sure which to side with, since in fairness to the NAM, the others have been rapidly trending toward it over the past 48 hours (recall just a couple days back when a Fri event along I-35 looked plausible per the EC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Disgusting weather once again on Nebraska. We shattered the record high this afternoon. Old record was 101, we hit 106...also one degree off the record high temperature for the entire month of June. The drought is well on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.