andyhb Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Yeah i found that kinda strange, and after that looks pretty damn active as well (on the Euro and ensembles as well). I mean you can already see it with that even larger system on the West Coast behind that one. Still waiting for baro to come in and take a look (and probably a chuckle) at the near identical setup in virtually every way. (Not that it means really anything, but I found it funny to see such a similar solution down to SLP and trough strength and position/low level moisture/LLJ axis/etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'll start getting excited when/if we can shake this blocky, short-wavelength crap with a perpetual east coast trough and Midwest ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'll start getting excited when/if we can shake this blocky, short-wavelength crap with a perpetual east coast trough and Midwest ridging. Completely agree. The last system that just rolled through had some monster potential at this range as well. Just have to see if it holds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Looking at the models, it looks as if two main factors are contributing to the progged weakening/shunting of the ridge westward before this timeframe. 1) The system late this week that tracks across the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. 2) The resulting expansion of the eastern trough from this aforementioned system's energy diving into it, before the trough eventually begins to move offshore towards the middle of next week, which looks to signal the beginning of the return of moisture into the central portion of the country. This occurs as another large longwave trough/strong negative height anomaly develops in the West/NE Pacific and begins to eject energy along a powerful mid/upper jet southeastward. Eventually, this wears away at the ridge and we get the pattern showing up in the GFS OP/ensemble runs over the past several cycles and the 00z/12z Euro from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 Not sure where baro is, but I'm sure he'll instantly recognize the similarities in this solution from the 18z GFS at the end of its high-res period from a particular event last year. ^ almost a year later to the day. That storm was an absolute dream from a baroclinic instability/extreme diabatic heat release standpoint. The synergistic enhancement of that anomaly w.r.t. diabatic processes was incredible. Just a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Not sure where baro is, but I'm sure he'll instantly recognize the similarities in this solution from the 18z GFS at the end of its high-res period from a particular event last year. Which day last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Which day last year? April 14th/15th PV bomb. This beauty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 April 14th/15th PV bomb. This beauty: An incredible synoptic storm. Simply amazing. One of the most amazing satellite images ever. That was undoubtedly storm of the year for the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 The amount of crazy weather this thing produced was ridiculous, it was this that also resulted in the major tornado outbreaks over MS/AL and then the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 The amount of crazy weather this thing produced was ridiculous, it was this that also resulted in the major tornado outbreaks over MS/AL and then the Carolinas. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Good ole GGEM with a mid apr snowstorm at 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 It is possible, GFS also develops a defo band as that upper low ejects. Not a high confidence scenario though right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 It is possible, GFS also develops a defo band as that upper low ejects. Not a high confidence scenario though right now. MPX going with the GFS and mentions snow mon night/tue for w MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 If that system being shown in the longer ranges phases like the Euro and CMC suggest, wouldn't be surprised to see another uptick in severe weather towards the end of next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 If that system being shown in the longer ranges phases like the Euro and CMC suggest, wouldn't be surprised to see another uptick in severe weather towards the end of next week... GFS would support quite the convective event late next week. It would actually give me some decent thunderstorm potential on Tuesday of next week as a shortwave tops the ridge. It feels weird saying that in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well this looks very familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well this looks very familiar... Yeah, but moisture return is going to be a serious problem for the foreseeable future with the horrible pattern setting up shop right now. My hunch is it will be around the end of the month or the first week of May before any substantial threats return to the Plains/Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yeah I was more thinking about the big time trough on the West Coast behind this smaller scale shortwave, although the 00z GFS is a mess. I'm still gawking at that bomb on the East Coast that it is now showing. Classic phasing/overall synoptic development for a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 One of the cold air funnels across MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 One of the cold air funnels across MN. Really cool looking, can those cause any damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Really cool looking, can those cause any damage? Yeah they actually can. They are a pain to forecast/warn on since you likely will not see any rotation on radar since they aren't associated with a mesocyclone. We had some damage in our WFO a week ago from similar type tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 End of week trough looks decent for the southern/central plains. Might be a bit of a moisture issue but it will likely be the trough that re-establishes moisture across the plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Prinsburg is now in the tornado warning. Believe we have a poster from there on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Prinsburg is now in the tornado warning. Believe we have a poster from there on here. yeah, good catch. She is in the tor warning right now. Doubt she is in any immediate danger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 And up near Hibbing, MN, there's been 3-4" of snow today. Tale of two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 LOL. Padding the 2012 tornado stats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Minnesota Public Radio reports damage in Chippewa county MN Chippewa: Big Bend area -some reports of grain bins and barns that were totally flattened, as well as a garage. Nobody hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Weird little swarm of tornadoes in MN/IA today. No outlook of any kind in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 yeah, good catch. She is in the tor warning right now. Doubt she is in any immediate danger though. I didn't see any funnels but a few were reported nearby, nice little hailstorm though...took a pic of the hail covering the road this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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