#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ugh...i'm supposed be travelling from Colorado Springs, CO to North Platte, Nebraska on monday...please tell me it's not going to snow...or at east what time i should start my drive to avoid the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 ugh...i'm supposed be travelling from Colorado Springs, CO to North Platte, Nebraska on monday...please tell me it's not going to snow...or at east what time i should start my drive to avoid the snow... LOL why are you coming to NP? Looks like you might want to take a different route since much of I-80 may be under the gun for snow on Monday. It is a tough forecast though, I haven't looked much, but the threat for good snow is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Congrats and good luck. Just as you thought.....from the MPX AFD this morning (I think they're getting a bit antsy like the rest of us)...... EXTENDED...THE 240HR "WONDER" OFF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM BREWING BY THE END OF FEBRUARY. THE MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 17.00Z GFS AND ECMWF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY JUST A COINCIDENCE GIVEN WE`RE SO FAR OUT. THE GFS HAS A 990MB LOW IN NORTHERN NM...SUNDAY FEB. 27...THE ECMWF HAS A 992MB LOW AT THE SAME TIME ONLY ABOUT 50-70MI TO THE WEST...NOT TOO SHABBY FOR 10 DAYS OUT. THIS WILL CHANGE WILL SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AT ANY RATE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF would be a dream storm. I am still not getting myself too excited, but the potential for a legit storm is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 LOL why are you coming to NP? Looks like you might want to take a different route since much of I-80 may be under the gun for snow on Monday. It is a tough forecast though, I haven't looked much, but the threat for good snow is there. going to Bellevue, NE (Omaha) to help out a friend...been talking to Cory...he said i could crash at his place...maybe even get a tour of the NWS...really hoping it doesn't snow...or if it snows later in the day Monday, that would be fine since it's only 4.5hrs from Co Springs to NP and i could leave early and bea the bad weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0z euro seems to be focused on the northern wave by the time the event arrives monday for MN as where the gfs is focusing on the southern wave, a switch on both models from their 12z run. gfs would be high end advisory event, the euro an inch or 2. ECMWF would be a dream storm. I am still not getting myself too excited, but the potential for a legit storm is there. 0z ECM still has the dream storm on day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Incredible gradient on the northwest side of the storm, and a huge LLJ response on the warm sector side. In all honesty, if this was any of the other models, I probably wouldn't be as interested, but since the Euro has been certainly the most successful model this Winter, I am definitely a little more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Told you, the second I leave there will be a monster blizzard up here. Probably a top ten event just so the weather gods can spit in my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 looking forward to checking out North Platte, bummed i'm going to be driving through wind, light snow...and snow/rain mix type stuff...hope it won't be too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 looking forward to checking out North Platte, bummed i'm going to be driving through wind, light snow...and snow/rain mix type stuff...hope it won't be too bad... We started a thread about the storm. I am not sure you are excited to see NP since there is nothing to see but junk. It is starting to look like a rather significant storm for portions of the Front Range into western NE. I would either leave now or late Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 MPX just issued a "Winter Storm Watch" for tomorrow for portions of southern Minnesota. ABR & FSD also issued a watch for parts of their coverage area. nam/rgem are a little further north with the band than the gfs at this time. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1150 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW... .A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PEPIN COUNTY IN WISCONSIN FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS IOWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND A BAND OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS NOW A REAL POSSIBILITY. IN FACT...AN EVEN HEAVIER BUT VERY NARROW BAND OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA. HOPEFULLY SOMETIME TONIGHT WE WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS IN ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW WILL BE. MNZ054-064-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ026-230200- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0001.120223T0900Z-120224T0000Z/ LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR- RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT- FREEBORN-PEPIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...GRANITE FALLS... REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT... RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT... BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA...DURAND...PEPIN 1150 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AND SLIDES EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...A BAND OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CANBY...TO REDWOOD FALLS...TO OWATONNA. EMBEDDED IN THIS...THERE COULD BE A VERY NARROW BAND WITH 7 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS COULD MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah this is going to be an interesting event. I have been watching this too, and the guidance has certainly begun to suggest stronger cyclogenesis and a strong upper wave aloft. Always have to keep close watch when you have a 140-160 kt jet streak pushing in since even weak waves along it can amplify quickly. I did notice ECMWF goes way south and turns this into a northern IA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Via HPC: "...WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS DAY 1... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE NAM DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TRACK NORTH OF THAT MODEL. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY TOWARD THE NAM FROM THE ECMWF. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN. WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Via HPC: "...WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS DAY 1... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE NAM DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH A TRACK NORTH OF THAT MODEL. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY TOWARD THE NAM FROM THE ECMWF. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN. WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF." Yeah, be interesting on what model wins out on this. MPX going with the GFS. HPC seems to favor the ECM alot but this time they may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 NAm dprog/dt. NAM fail. 18Z about 100 miles S. 12z was tossable already...becoming much more clear. I would definitely favor a far S track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 NAm dprog/dt. NAM fail. 18Z about 100 miles S. 12z was tossable already...becoming much more clear. I would definitely favor a far S track. NAM has been north all winter so i tossed that at 12z...I guess MPX had no choice but to issue a wsw being inside 24hrs and some guidance suggesting a further north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18z rgem came south now also for tomorrow...good hit for nw IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 This storm is getting my very excited, Very classic high wind event across central NE with a bent-back CCB, venturi effect with the Rocky topography, and extreme mesoscale subsidence forced along the descending portions of the upper jet streak all the way through the CCB. Looking at potential 55-65 MPH wind gusts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 This storm is getting my very excited, Very classic high wind event across central NE with a bent-back CCB, venturi effect with the Rocky topography, and extreme mesoscale subsidence forced along the descending portions of the upper jet streak all the way through the CCB. Looking at potential 55-65 MPH wind gusts tomorrow. wow...high wind warning issued yet out there? i haven't looked. My excitement will be watching 35 dbz echo returns off FSD radar slide se into IA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 wow...high wind warning issued yet out there? i haven't looked. My excitement will be watching 35 dbz echo returns off FSD radar slide se into IA. lol I talked to someone at the office and they are issuing a wind advisory first. But they are aware of the potential. 18Z GFS backs the low level low up big...still looks great for a potential high wind event. 850 winds across a huge area in excess of 60 kts across the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 MPX keeping the WSW from Redwood Falls on south...riding the GFS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 406 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY... .A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO OWATONNA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES... MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA 406 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AND SLIDES EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...A BAND OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO OWATONNA. * OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS COULD MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 MPX keeping the WSW from Redwood Falls on south...riding the GFS. Tough forecast for them. Narrow FGEN band, but there is a direct ageostrophic flow circulation from the low level FGEN to the upper jet streak...and that jet is very active. There will be convective banding...convective banding in MT already being seen as that jet begins to curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Tough forecast for them. Narrow FGEN band, but there is a direct ageostrophic flow circulation from the low level FGEN to the upper jet streak...and that jet is very active. There will be convective banding...convective banding in MT already being seen as that jet begins to curve. Could be around a foot in places near the IA border according to MPX...be yet another miss for me but fun tracking this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looking superb for portions of very SW MN into northern IA. That FGEN band is going to be rocking followed by the mid level impulse pushing through. Classic heavy snow event for portions of the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 GFS is freakishly scary for wind tomorrow...looking like a potential highlight show across western NE. The CCB is going to be absolutely ripping...GFS suggests a 70 kt core with a direct ageostrophic circulation from dscending branch of the upper jet to the surface. Mixing will be sickeningly efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 uh oh, BI is totally nerding out, it's gonna be cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 uh oh, BI is totally nerding out, it's gonna be cool! About time we had some stinking weather this winter! Incredibly boring with split flow junk...it is nice to see the polar jet make a return to the plains. Sick of the torchests and record highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 About time we had some stinking weather this winter! Incredibly boring with split flow junk...it is nice to see the polar jet make a return to the plains. Sick of the torchests and record highs. lol, I know, this year has been very disappointing. It's a shame we can't skip to next October or November and try it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Now this is the kind of afd i like to read, i take it that the met who wrote the OAX afd wouldn't be surprised. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYTHIS IS A VERY INTERESTING PERIOD WITH SOME CONSIDERABLE FORECAST CHALLENGES REGARDING A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE WAVE IS STILL OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE DRAWING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ALSO BRINGS INTO QUESTION PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS THE TRANSITION ZONE REMAINS DRAPED WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENING THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GFS AT THE SAME TIME...WHICH IS CONCERNING AS WELL. BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS ALSO MUCH STRONGER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...RESULTING IN SNOW LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE IN THE GRIDS...MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MIX ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WHILE IT`S STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CONVERGING MODEL TRENDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE...BUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT SETS UP IS JUST TOO UNCLEAR GIVEN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW...SOMEWHERE WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AGAIN...PINPOINTING DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR WIND IMPACTS AS WELL. AND...ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. IT`S BECOMING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN JUST ABOUT EVERY WEATHER TYPE CAN OCCUR...AND WITHIN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ONE ANOTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 First storm is becoming sacrifical lamb. Guidance keeps suggesting more of that lead western trough remains across the west with a stronger phase for the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Now this is the kind of afd i like to read, i take it that the met who wrote the OAX afd wouldn't be surprised. A classic "I don't know exactly what will happen but it could be bad if it does happen AFD". Nothing wrong with that here...threat is real but it is dependent upon a low amplitude phase. Teleconnections are weak with this event...it would be more of a "freak" storm than something anyone would expect a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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