yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Never heard of an Extreme Cold Watch before... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1122 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... ...EXTREME COLD WATCH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... .AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY TO 25 MPH...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO. THUS AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE WORKING OUTSIDE...OR THOSE WITH PETS...PREPARE NOW FOR THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR WITHIN MINUTES. NDZ001>005-009>013-017-180130- /O.CON.KBIS.EC.A.0001.120118T0600Z-120119T1800Z/ DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...MOHALL... BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...MINOT...TOWNER... RUGBY...WATFORD CITY 1122 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012 ...EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * TEMPERATURES ARE FOREACST TO FALL TO SUB ZERO READINGS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY TO 25 MPH MAY CREATE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 BELOW AND 45 BELOW ZERO. * FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR WITHIN MINUTES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN EXTREME COLD WATCH MEANS THAT DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES THIS COLD CAN CAUSE FROSTBITE TO OCCUR WITHIN MINUTES ON EXPOSED SKIN SUCH AS THE HANDS AND FACE. CONSIDER KEEPING PETS INSIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We're #1! Not a good way to start the year, lol Yet HGX CWA recorded 7 tornadoes on 1-9 without a watch... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=jan9_2012_storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Never heard of an Extreme Cold Watch before... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=77741&source=0 Evidently they killed off a couple of the other warnings/advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Big bust on temps today from MPX, they called for a high of 18 but i'm sitting at 27...lol. Arctic front just to my west though and my area has a "extreme cold warning" out for tonight with wind chills down to -35 possible, still no snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I love the weather. January 18th marked the latest that KMSP has recorded its first below zero temperature. We did not get below zero the morning of the 18th...but with the passage of the Arctic front this evening knew that there was a chance we could get below zero before midnight. If we didn't get below zero before midnight, then a new record would be set. 11:53pm observation.... -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I love the weather. January 18th marked the latest that KMSP has recorded its first below zero temperature. We did not get below zero the morning of the 18th...but with the passage of the Arctic front this evening knew that there was a chance we could get below zero before midnight. If we didn't get below zero before midnight, then a new record would be set. 11:53pm observation.... -1. haha, gotta love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I love the weather. January 18th marked the latest that KMSP has recorded its first below zero temperature. We did not get below zero the morning of the 18th...but with the passage of the Arctic front this evening knew that there was a chance we could get below zero before midnight. If we didn't get below zero before midnight, then a new record would be set. 11:53pm observation.... -1. Saw that. What a way to miss a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 324 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTRY MIX LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. INITIALLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-210930- /O.NEW.KABR.WS.A.0001.120122T0600Z-120123T0000Z/ TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL- ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK- CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...MCLAUGHLIN... HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...MOBRIDGE... IPSWICH...WEBSTER...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON... REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE 324 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 /224 PM MST FRI JAN 20 2012/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN END BY LATE ON SUNDAY. * SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION INCREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Who wants to start it? Definitely worthy of a storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Who wants to start it? Definitely worthy of a storm thread. I think "cmichweather" should start this one as his area gets impacted more than mine...if not, baro always does a good job at threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think "cmichweather" should start this one as his area gets impacted more than mine...if not, baro always does a good job at threads. I just got home from work I'll start one after 00z rolls in tonight and I can look at things, unless Baro has some free time and wants to start one right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I just got home from work I'll start one after 00z rolls in tonight and I can look at things, unless Baro has some free time and wants to start one right now. Haha I am not starting squat. I had a fail or two already this year. I don't want to ruin it for you guys up there. We aren't getting anything but wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice to see the GFS finally get on board with the foreign models...this pans out it could be an advisory type snow event for alot of MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 cmichweather, qpf for gfk GFS 0.24 CMC 0.28 NAM 0.54 UKM 0.45 ECM 0.39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice to see the GFS finally get on board with the foreign models...this pans out it could be an advisory type snow event for alot of MN. It sure is a tough forecast, multiple waves with differing strengths and digging. Originally the Northern was the dominant wave and southern developing with time. Now it's more a consolidated packet, still two waves but not as split and chance for much more strengthening early. I think WSW's go up here with the overnight and depending on 12z's we either go warnings with the afternoon or overnight package. I figured forget the new thread it'll be like 4 of us posting at least this has some posts and people will see it, Baro adjust to your liking. I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the overall deepening to occur further NW of tracks this is quite the wave on WV and might really bomb east of the rockies, it has a nice baroclinic zone to tap and moisture return from the south isn't awful certainly could suprise a few folks. I think the sweet spot gets a nice 5-8 inch storm and a general stripe of 3-6 seems reasonable for my area unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 cmichweather, qpf for gfk GFS 0.24 CMC 0.28 NAM 0.54 UKM 0.45 ECM 0.39 Thanks ya not really shocked, I'm thinking a nice band of 3-6 and if I end up in the middle then my snow dance worked and i score a bit more. Gonna be tough to figure out where that defo band forms as the southern low takes over and deepens and the nw band really gets its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It sure is a tough forecast, multiple waves with differing strengths and digging. Originally the Northern was the dominant wave and southern developing with time. Now it's more a consolidated packet, still two waves but not as split and chance for much more strengthening early. I think WSW's go up here with the overnight and depending on 12z's we either go warnings with the afternoon or overnight package. I figured forget the new thread it'll be like 4 of us posting at least this has some posts and people will see it, Baro adjust to your liking. I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the overall deepening to occur further NW of tracks this is quite the wave on WV and might really bomb east of the rockies, it has a nice baroclinic zone to tap and moisture return from the south isn't awful certainly could suprise a few folks. I think the sweet spot gets a nice 5-8 inch storm and a general stripe of 3-6 seems reasonable for my area unless things change. I agree, keep it in this thread as there are only a few of us...euro wasn't so great this run for MN, dry again but maybe it'll flip back at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Baro you might know did they have any drops on this system before it came onshore and do all modeling agencies receive this info? Or is this a dtk question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0z GFS ensemble 36-48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thanks Prins seems like a wide array of solutions are still on the table 12z should be the deciding point as the system will have been onshore and sampled. Going to be interesting to see the 12z output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thanks Prins seems like a wide array of solutions are still on the table 12z should be the deciding point as the system will have been onshore and sampled. Going to be interesting to see the 12z output... Don't know if the euro is on crack or not as the other models are further north after 24hrs. GFK qpf. GFS 0.44 CMC 0.35 NAM 0.39 UKM 0.37 ECM 0.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It sure is a tough forecast, multiple waves with differing strengths and digging. Originally the Northern was the dominant wave and southern developing with time. Now it's more a consolidated packet, still two waves but not as split and chance for much more strengthening early. I think WSW's go up here with the overnight and depending on 12z's we either go warnings with the afternoon or overnight package. I figured forget the new thread it'll be like 4 of us posting at least this has some posts and people will see it, Baro adjust to your liking. I actually wouldn't be shocked to see the overall deepening to occur further NW of tracks this is quite the wave on WV and might really bomb east of the rockies, it has a nice baroclinic zone to tap and moisture return from the south isn't awful certainly could suprise a few folks. I think the sweet spot gets a nice 5-8 inch storm and a general stripe of 3-6 seems reasonable for my area unless things change. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 318 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. * SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY DIMINISHING LATE SUNDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED * SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29487-january-2012-general-obs-and-discussions/page__st__35 Please give the posts by Srain and I some consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Finally looking like a stormier pattern in the longer range for the n rockies and n plains starting around the 20th, all 3 major global models show a much more active pattern starting around that time...nothing is set in stone but after 4+ months of drought around here the long range is the best i've seen all winter for the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hard to get terribly interested in such a junk wave, but you got to take what you get this winter. Moisture return is junk with this storm, and the wave is crappy with poor advection...basically recycling cold air out of that high. That said, warm air won't be a problem and much of the central and southern plains will see light accumulating snow with this event. Longer range beyond day 10 looks mildy promising...the PV across CA and a weakly -PNA looking regime...this would allow for more amplification potential across the plains than we have seen all winter...should this develop of course. GEFS keeps delaying this each run. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So I've stopped hoping for snow... but the cold up here is probably note quite over. Both the Euro and 12z GFS are showing a nice cold dump at hr 240 (yes, grasping at straws this far out, but I like that they both show it) the "system after the next" for the northern plains/lakes with that big vortex swinging down over Hudson's Bay helping out. 850s to 0 all the way to the gulf. Probably another glancing blow but if it came close to verifying we would at least see some more cold... I'll ignore the high snow totals the gfs shows... I think I am agreeing with you, Baro... lol. One more promising shot??? This is pathetic. Maybe I should quit looking at op models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm moving to the east coast in 6 days so I guarantee right after I leave a major storm is going to slam the northern plains. It'll be an epic storm with blizzard conditions just knowing my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 So I've stopped hoping for snow... but the cold up here is probably note quite over. Both the Euro and 12z GFS are showing a nice cold dump at hr 240 (yes, grasping at straws this far out, but I like that they both show it) the "system after the next" for the northern plains/lakes with that big vortex swinging down over Hudson's Bay helping out. 850s to 0 all the way to the gulf. Probably another glancing blow but if it came close to verifying we would at least see some more cold... I'll ignore the high snow totals the gfs shows... I think I am agreeing with you, Baro... lol. One more promising shot??? This is pathetic. Maybe I should quit looking at op models... Believe it or not, I am getting mildly excited as well. SOme of the much better medium range mets here also suggesting the threat. Still not getting uber excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm moving to the east coast in 6 days so I guarantee right after I leave a major storm is going to slam the northern plains. It'll be an epic storm with blizzard conditions just knowing my luck. Congrats man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm moving to the east coast in 6 days so I guarantee right after I leave a major storm is going to slam the northern plains. It'll be an epic storm with blizzard conditions just knowing my luck. Congrats and good luck. Just as you thought.....from the MPX AFD this morning (I think they're getting a bit antsy like the rest of us)...... EXTENDED...THE 240HR "WONDER" OFF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM BREWING BY THE END OF FEBRUARY. THE MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 17.00Z GFS AND ECMWF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY JUST A COINCIDENCE GIVEN WE`RE SO FAR OUT. THE GFS HAS A 990MB LOW IN NORTHERN NM...SUNDAY FEB. 27...THE ECMWF HAS A 992MB LOW AT THE SAME TIME ONLY ABOUT 50-70MI TO THE WEST...NOT TOO SHABBY FOR 10 DAYS OUT. THIS WILL CHANGE WILL SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AT ANY RATE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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