prinsburg_wx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 That is indeed incredible. Do you have a link to that news article? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=77318&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thanks, prinsburg. Poor Sioux Falls winter lovers and sport enthusiasts. 60° today, and they are still sitting on 0.5" of snow so far (normal-to-date 17.9"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's going to get cold. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 850 temps on the 12z GGEM for next wed night are progged at -28 & below for most of MN although with the lack of snow cover i have some doubts on being that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is looking good. Besides the first legit arctic front of the year...guidance hinting at shift in the PV across CA beyond day 10. I will believe it when I see it, but the medium range thread in the main W/F forum also suggesting big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is looking good. Besides the first legit arctic front of the year...guidance hinting at shift in the PV across CA beyond day 10. I will believe it when I see it, but the medium range thread in the main W/F forum also suggesting big changes. Yeah I just hope the ridging doesn't move to the other side of the globe like the 18z GFS suggests in the last panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This is looking good. Besides the first legit arctic front of the year...guidance hinting at shift in the PV across CA beyond day 10. I will believe it when I see it, but the medium range thread in the main W/F forum also suggesting big changes. Yeah I just hope the ridging doesn't move to the other side of the globe like the 18z GFS suggests in the last panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah I just hope the ridging doesn't move to the other side of the globe like the 18z GFS suggests in the last panels. Yeah I saw that, but the GEFS has been all over the map the last few days regarding potential blocking and the placement of it. The Medium Range disco they were discussing the ECMWF weeklies (I have no access) which favor a -PNA type pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah I saw that, but the GEFS has been all over the map the last few days regarding potential blocking and the placement of it. The Medium Range disco they were discussing the ECMWF weeklies (I have no access) which favor a -PNA type pattern setting up. Yeah all the models have been all over the place past Day 7 or so, probably even before that. Brett Anderson drew the weeklies this morning http://www.accuweath...-update-1/59941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Nice to see the first legit arctic plunge of the winter. Still not that impressive in the big scheme, but I am not complaining. 00/06Z GFS determistic still remains one of the weakest with the overall northern stream wave as it cuts off much of the jet energy out over the 4 corners...it is an outlier amongst the EC/ECENS/GFSENS/CMC. 0z GFS Ensemble mean 850 @ 120 hrs: 0z ECMWF Ensemble mean 850 @ 120 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Nice to see the first legit arctic plunge of the winter. Still not that impressive in the big scheme, but I am not complaining. 00/06Z GFS determistic still remains one of the weakest with the overall northern stream wave as it cuts off much of the jet energy out over the 4 corners...it is an outlier amongst the EC/ECENS/GFSENS/CMC. 0z GFS Ensemble mean 850 @ 120 hrs: 0z ECMWF Ensemble mean 850 @ 120 hrs: 12z GFS continues with it's prior runs of less cold air & the n wave to the north...sad thing is is the GFS has been more correct with alot of the systems this winter up here and out performing the ECM in my opinion...some have mentioned pattern change but i just don't see it but the same ole crap, couple days of cold & wind then it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 12z GFS continues with it's prior runs of less cold air & the n wave to the north...sad thing is is the GFS has been more correct with alot of the systems this winter up here and out performing the ECM in my opinion...some have mentioned pattern change but i just don't see it but the same ole crap, couple days of cold & wind then it warms up. I wouldn't put much stock in the deterministic GFS here. Doubt it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I wouldn't put much stock in the deterministic GFS here. Doubt it verifies. You are probably right, just took a look at the ensemble and much different at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Managed 1.4" of snow yesterday. Roads were ice driving into work this morning. Seems weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 You are probably right, just took a look at the ensemble and much different at 120. You are going to have to hook me up to your new site. I like your new plots. And yes, the 06Z GFS cracked finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Record 52 at MSP today. Crazy + departures this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Record 52 at MSP today. Crazy + departures this month. Hit 56 here today, am sure that broke a record also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 47 here, broken record again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Like a mini blizzard here this morning, snowing & winds gusting over 35...too bad it'll be brief but it's awesome anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah this snow thing, whats with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Like a mini blizzard here this morning, snowing & winds gusting over 35...too bad it'll be brief but it's awesome anyway. Yeah this snow thing, whats with that? I was driving to the high plains AMS conference with co-workers in Norton, KS today and we hit snow showers. With the 45+ MPH winds it looked wintry for once. Of course, as usual, most people were complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 dusting today. doesn't look like much tomorrow either. looks like i'll have spent a motnh-long winter break here without ever seeing a grass-covering amount of snow on the ground. incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 So good to see the Bering Sea high latitude block setup with an associated change in the Pacific storm track. ECMWF/CMC/UK are all a tick slower and more amplified with the ejecting eastern Pac. trough de-amplifying into a shortwave across the CONUS day 3-5. Could be a possible storm threat for portions of NE into IA along the arctic boundary. Medium range, while not completely cold, does look far more interesting than it has all winter with potential storm threats along the arctic boundary. The Pacific regime will be much more conducive to sharp shortwaves as they eject off the eastern Pac trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Not much with the current clipper, some fluffy flakes but not adding up to much...snow drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Not much with the current clipper, some fluffy flakes but not adding up to much...snow drought continues. ditto here. nice dusting, but that's it. most of it should melt off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Pattern shifts seemingly can't find any way to help us. Cold shots here and there, but the block is expected to retrograde into Siberia. All the cold air will dump into the GOA with a new vortex forming across AK/western CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hey a bit of snow falling for me! Not optimistic about this storm, slotted between the good snows around Des Moines and the decent snow in NW Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hey a bit of snow falling for me! Not optimistic about this storm, slotted between the good snows around Des Moines and the decent snow in NW Iowa. We got about .3" of snow here. Paltry. But the arctic front was the first legit shot of arctic air here. Currently at zero with negative teens in NW Nebraska. The next few days are going to be challenging forecasts for much of the northern and central plains regarding exactly where the sharp baroclinic zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Congrats to JoMo and the rest of the Missouri and South Central Illinois gang for picking up the first tornado watch of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Congrats to JoMo and the rest of the Missouri and South Central Illinois gang for picking up the first tornado watch of the year. We're #1! Not a good way to start the year, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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