msp Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 mid-40s on saturday? 50 in wMN? i came home hoping for some of the white stuff and there's nothing now or soon to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Well up this way the latest storm was impressive in some areas. 6-8" of snow reported in the higher terrain of the arrowhead and winds gusting to over 50 mph in the tip of the arrowhead with power outages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 got a nice coating last night that lasted for a couple hours today before highs in the mid-30s melted it off. tomorrow's 40s will probably finish off what's left. brown christmas on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 Well up this way the latest storm was impressive in some areas. 6-8" of snow reported in the higher terrain of the arrowhead and winds gusting to over 50 mph in the tip of the arrowhead with power outages! I just got back to Shaktown for a short visit. Brown here. Oh well. Enjoy the beast mode storm in the southern plains since it will be the only interesting weather event for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I just got back to Shaktown for a short visit. Brown here. Oh well. Enjoy the beast mode storm in the southern plains since it will be the only interesting weather event for a while. 54 here right now, very el nino like pattern with split flows, dry and mild. I'm thinking alot of the winter forecasts that are out there are going to bust big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 54 here right now, very el nino like pattern with split flows, dry and mild. I'm thinking alot of the winter forecasts that are out there are going to bust big time. 46F here. some stations in wMN on wunderground peaked close to 60F today. the small piles of snow are quickly disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 54 here right now, very el nino like pattern with split flows, dry and mild. I'm thinking alot of the winter forecasts that are out there are going to bust big time. I remember seeing forecasts that showed NM well below normal on precip because the storm track would be farther north. Definitely does seem like an El-Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 54 here right now, very el nino like pattern with split flows, dry and mild. I'm thinking alot of the winter forecasts that are out there are going to bust big time. I am going to be honest, this is a good example of why I never even bother to look at long range seasonal forecasts. There is always something that doesn't fit with analogues, seasonal teleconnections, etc. such as lack of blocking this year as well as nearly non-forecastable patterns like the AO trends, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 got a nice coating last night that lasted for a couple hours today before highs in the mid-30s melted it off. tomorrow's 40s will probably finish off what's left. brown christmas on the way. well, i'm right there with ya...i'll think of you with fondness as i'm celebrating my brown christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 high temp for the state was 61F at montevideo. crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 high temp for the state was 61F at montevideo. crazy. As long as the PV remains parked north of the Hudson Bay and the NPAC firehose continues, this pattern isn't going anywhere. I guess I might as well try to enjoy the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As long as the PV remains parked north of the Hudson Bay and the NPAC firehose continues, this pattern isn't going anywhere. I guess I might as well try to enjoy the warmth. no kidding. nada for real cold on just about every GFS run. 33F today, mid-30s again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 A repeat of this winter with another cutoff upper low across the intermountain W and a cP Canadian front dropping through the plains. These are good setups for the Front Range and Wyoming since they see significant terrain enhancement and weak easterly trajectories in the low levels. This one is going to be mainly be a mountain W storm...portions of western Nebraska may see a couple inches of snow with around on inch into west central Nebraska. Another stinker of a "storm". I guess it is better than nothing. Once again MN is in the middle of everything. Pretty much says it all here. Dominant +AO cutting off intermountain W cutoff low after cutoff low with ejecting southern stream anomalies. Most of those are also suppressed systems as they eject north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This. As long as the PV remains parked north of the Hudson Bay and the NPAC firehose continues, this pattern isn't going anywhere. I guess I might as well try to enjoy the warmth. We need some of your optimism in the Southeast forum. That said, my old friends in Wichita, KS really got disappointed this last time. Two days out I joked that it would be rain to dry slot, just like when I lived in Wichita. No way I could be sure 2 days out, but my joke turned out quite cruel. Oops! The reality is that as we get deeper into Winter, January, all these Southwest/Colorado/Panhandle lows should bring the goods to those on the right path. It is certainly not a disaster of a pattern by any means. Trough in the West generally stays quite interesting for the Plains. As usual, it's all about the track of the storm. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 got some nice light snow falling now with a temp of 31F. maybe half an inch if we're lucky. doesn't look to stay 'til christmas, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Some nice light snow, just wish it'd be able to hold on till Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 another surprise dusting this morning that's now gone save a few shaded spots. just can't get anything big enough to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Pretty much sums it all up. We were definitely spoiled last year. 2010: 2011: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 What an awful and atrocious weather pattern we are mired in. Pacific wavetrain continues with a big torch end of week for us here. We may get close to record highs Thursday with high into the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Typically I like my snow in two waves. Right before Christmas, then a small break, then a stormy mid-Jan to March. Hopefully Mid-Jan to March will work out since nothing happened before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Pacific wave is spreading quite a bit of warm and dry downslope winds off the Continental Divide. With no snow pack to speak of, it is currently torching across the northern plains. Breaking records. Record today is 42 at Grand Forks KGFK...and it is currently 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Pacific wave is spreading quite a bit of warm and dry downslope winds off the Continental Divide. With no snow pack to speak of, it is currently torching across the northern plains. Breaking records. Record today is 42 at Grand Forks KGFK...and it is currently 48. A nice +32 departure on the high at GFK. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 DLH had a record of 43 today. Unreal out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 52 at msp. that's flat out crazy. mpx already mentioning next saturday as a potential record warm day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 DLH had a record of 43 today. Unreal out there. Been a pretty sorry winter. Do you have any snow on the ground up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 52 at msp. that's flat out crazy. mpx already mentioning next saturday as a potential record warm day too. Yeah it is pretty incredible. Same here for NP. Watching the timing on these low amplitude waves...but the potential exists for a major torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 A nice +32 departure on the high at GFK. Amazing. Yeah it was amazing. I lived there for 4+ years...never saw anything close to this. I think Fargo broke their daily record too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Been a pretty sorry winter. Do you have any snow on the ground up there? There is probably less than an inch on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Put this in little persective in language anyone can understand. Last year week after Christmas I was driving a 4x4 on 17" of ice. There is 6-7" of ice right now on the smaller lakes. The larger ones that should have plowed roads and permanent shelters people are still getting stranded on ice floes... pretty crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Put this in little persective in language anyone can understand. Last year week after Christmas I was driving a 4x4 on 17" of ice. There is 6-7" of ice right now on the smaller lakes. The larger ones that should have plowed roads and permanent shelters people are still getting stranded on ice floes... pretty crazy stuff. just had a friend of mine have an ice shelter fall through on a medium-sized lake. i'm just staying off them in general until we can get a little more cold weather. maybe a coating of snow here tonight; otherwise, new 0z NAM says maybe a decent snowfall on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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