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Plains Weather Discussion

baroclinic_instability

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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prinsburg_wx I think I can feel your anticipation for the day 6-7 storm. I think we start seeing some ggem maps from you this evening, now that gfs has gone back to back runs with picking up that southern stream wave, ecmwf has had it for 3 runs now I think it may be a realistic threat for you guys down south. Always worry that the northern stream doesn't dig enough and doesn't pick up the cutoff but I like our chances right now.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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prinsburg_wx I think I can feel your anticipation for the day 6-7 storm. I think we start seeing some ggem maps from you this evening, now that gfs has gone back to back runs with picking up that southern stream wave, ecmwf has had it for 3 runs now I think it may be a realistic threat for you guys down south. Always worry that the northern stream doesn't dig enough and doesn't pick up the cutoff but I like our chances right now.

GGEM slp maps - hrs 120 - 156

post-252-0-07173700-1323409662.gif

post-252-0-35105600-1323409671.gif

post-252-0-12917900-1323409681.gif

post-252-0-01926200-1323409690.gif

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Thanks, seems southern stream is a bit too far south to get picked up early and the northern stream digs fairly far south to "pick" it up put not until 138-144 seems why we see the expanded precip area to the NW in hour 144 then the deepening as the northern stream phases with the southern and we get a negative tilt.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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prinsburg_wx I think I can feel your anticipation for the day 6-7 storm. I think we start seeing some ggem maps from you this evening, now that gfs has gone back to back runs with picking up that southern stream wave, ecmwf has had it for 3 runs now I think it may be a realistic threat for you guys down south. Always worry that the northern stream doesn't dig enough and doesn't pick up the cutoff but I like our chances right now.

GGEM 132 - 144hr 500 & 850...sorry these didn't load in order

post-252-0-62522900-1323410447.png

post-252-0-19321700-1323410492.png

post-252-0-00297800-1323410502.png

post-252-0-57138900-1323410516.png

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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ya i just took a look at the psu ewall and its just a mess northern stream does dig but southern stream ejects and actually doesn't interact with the northern stream so you have this broad area of lift with both streams that give you this large area of precip in the NW flank of the storm I think my opinion on this storm right now is we get a phase where the storm really tanks or I'm really still thinking that southern stream "miss" where is ejects but doesn't interact with the northern stream wave might occur and we have a warm storm with not much of anything I don't really like how the ggem interacts both streams

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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ya i just took a look at the psu ewall and its just a mess northern stream does dig but southern stream ejects and actually doesn't interact with the northern stream so you have this broad area of lift with both streams that give you this large area of precip in the NW flank of the storm I think my opinion on this storm right now is we get a phase where the storm really tanks or I'm really still thinking that southern stream "miss" where is ejects but doesn't interact with the northern stream wave might occur and we have a warm storm with not much of anything I don't really like how the ggem interacts both streams

Euro way NW...I think it's your turn to start a storm thread. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Euro way NW...I think it's your turn to start a storm thread. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I haven't looked yet but ya if you consolidate the northern stream and look at that 132 ggem it go bonkers, but yes... i'll go check this can be a major storm with the 2 stream phase, could be a major plains blizzard or be a moderate MW storm.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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I haven't looked yet but ya if you consolidate the northern stream and look at that 132 ggem it go bonkers, but yes... i'll go check this can be a major storm with the 2 stream phase, could be a major plains blizzard or be a moderate MW storm.

euro qpf for GFK

THU 06Z 15-DEC  -1.9    -2.6    1003      90     100    0.26     544     541    
THU 12Z 15-DEC  -1.4    -4.5     996      92      93    0.17     531     534    
THU 18Z 15-DEC  -1.0    -5.2     996      91      97    0.10     529     532    
FRI 00Z 16-DEC  -2.2    -7.5    1002      90      97    0.06     531     529

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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This is gonna be an ugly storm for a while on the models, northern stream and southern stream interactions aren't going to be very accurate at this time frame but the potential is great i'd say this could be a major storm and my first excited storm of the year but it does have the potential of a miss so i'm kinda 50/50 on it.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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This is gonna be an ugly storm for a while on the models, northern stream and southern stream interactions aren't going to be very accurate at this time frame but the potential is great i'd say this could be a major storm and my first excited storm of the year but it does have the potential of a miss so i'm kinda 50/50 on it.

Yeah, hopefully in a couple more days models will sort out the stream interactions and we'll be waiting your storm thread...popcorn.gif

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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according to the 0z euro i'll have a mixed bag of precip...looks like a n SD, ND & c n MN snowstorm

This is gonna be an ugly storm for a while on the models, northern stream and southern stream interactions aren't going to be very accurate at this time frame but the potential is great i'd say this could be a major storm and my first excited storm of the year but it does have the potential of a miss so i'm kinda 50/50 on it.

Agreed. Big potential, but also a big potential for a stinker. A lot of meteorology needs to happen before this becomes a reality. Don't be surprised if that cutoff upper low cuts off farther W...it has been the trend with the eastern Pacific ridge the last couple weeks. For once the northern stream westerlies won't have a negative influence on this system (i.e., no positive tilt junk). The bad is there won't be much cold air to work with unless the perfect phase occurs (i.e., 18Z GFS). The GOM will be open, however, with quite a bit of moist latent heat to work with.

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Agreed. Big potential, but also a big potential for a stinker. A lot of meteorology needs to happen before this becomes a reality. Don't be surprised if that cutoff upper low cuts off farther W...it has been the trend with the eastern Pacific ridge the last couple weeks. For once the northern stream westerlies won't have a negative influence on this system (i.e., no positive tilt junk). The bad is there won't be much cold air to work with unless the perfect phase occurs (i.e., 18Z GFS). The GOM will be open, however, with quite a bit of moist latent heat to work with.

Oh ya I completely agree that western cutoff could sit and spin and miss or never eject, or eject too late, or never interact with northern stream and positive tilt weak southern plains junk storm with no cold air. You do bring up a good point about the seasonal trend, it has been for storms to eject weaker, less phasing so that is a concern. There is a reason we've only had like 2 inches of precip in the past 4 months but I am slightly excited for this storm. Plus my gf flies to MSP that day so it is almost a guarantee that a big storm will occur.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Oh ya I completely agree that western cutoff could sit and spin and miss or never eject, or eject too late, or never interact with northern stream and positive tilt weak southern plains junk storm with no cold air. You do bring up a good point about the seasonal trend, it has been for storms to eject weaker, less phasing so that is a concern. There is a reason we've only had like 2 inches of precip in the past 4 months but I am slightly excited for this storm. Plus my gf flies to MSP that day so it is almost a guarantee that a big storm will occur.

What is new. Guidance already hinting at the seasonal trend. A cutoff displaced farther W nearly along the coast, a stronger northern stream influence, and a farther E based cyclone. It is going to be difficult for you and I to get into this, but it may still be a good MN/IA storm. The ECMWF hints at a faster ejection and a farther W based storm, but that is day 5 + still and even then you really only get into some late snow after the systems phase.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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Very depressing AFD from MPX this afternoon but they tell it how it is...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

410 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST WAS SPENT ON SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT

THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BASICALLY AN ALL RAIN

SCENARIO EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...LOOKS MAINLY DRY...WITH THE

PROSPECTS OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS FOR MOST OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS

VALLEY LOOKING LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THIS WOULD BE THE

FIRST SNOW FREE CHRISTMAS IN THE TWIN CITIES /AND MOST OF THE REST

OF THE AREA FOR THAT MATTER/ SINCE 2006.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WRLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY SET IN...WITH

HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S ALREADY RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY

LOOKS TO WARM EVEN FURTHER AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP OUT AHEAD OF THE

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MOVING

IN ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN THERE THERE IS...SUNDAY

COULD BE YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE THIS MONTH FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S.

FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO

SETTING UP...WHERE ONCE AGAIN THE MPX AREA ENDS UP BETWEEN WEATHER

SYSTEMS AND DRY. FOR THIS SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW

CLOSING OFF OVER THE DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NRN STREAM

ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN CANADIAN

PROVINCES. THIS NRN WAVE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPART MUCH

INFLUENCE ON THE SW LOW. AS A RESULT...THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS LOW

WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THE MPX AREA HIGH AND DRY. AS THE

SAYING GOES...WHEN IN DROUGHT LEAVE IT OUT.

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