cmichweather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Well who is going to start it? Even in the lowest amplitude wave form, there is a very good threat for a significant winter event across the northern plains with that type of baroclinic zone day 4-6. I refuse to jinx us. If I start the thread not a single flake will fall in ND. I do like the latest ggem though I want to see if the Euro pulls north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Well who is going to start it? Even in the lowest amplitude wave form, there is a very good threat for a significant winter event across the northern plains with that type of baroclinic zone day 4-6. Hope I didn't speak too soon... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29487-centralwestern-sub-forum-medium-range-discussions/ I refuse to jinx us. If I start the thread not a single flake will fall in ND. I do like the latest ggem though I want to see if the Euro pulls north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Baro, you should start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 I refuse to jinx us. If I start the thread not a single flake will fall in ND. I do like the latest ggem though I want to see if the Euro pulls north as well. Hope I didn't speak too soon... http://www.americanw...ge-discussions/ Baro, you should start it. Still some potential for a stinker although this is the first legit polar front storm threat of the season. The amplification potential is significant. If this thing even digs a tiny bit more or ejects a tad lower and you have a full blown major blizzard. If it comes in even a tick faster or less amplified it is a dud. Given the fast flow it is unlikely it amplfies much more (I do believe the CMC would be as absolutely good as it potentially can get). That said, I will hold off until the 0Zs. Ensembles still have some major stinkers...and given the sensitivity to tiny amplitude changes there really is no sure bet on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice potent little system in ND this morning with some decent snows in a few locations...DLH mentions some thundersnow with this as it moves into n MN later today. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 750 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0749 AM SNOW MINOT 48.23N 101.30W 11/15/2011 E5.0 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Nice potent little system in ND this morning with some decent snows in a few locations...DLH mentions some thundersnow with this as it moves into n MN later today. I have been watching this. An awesome looking system on sat and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I have been watching this. An awesome looking system on sat and radar. awesome sat pics! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1040 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011 DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SNOW POTENTIAL AND WIND. COMPACT BUT POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL DEFINED FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY PROPAGATING ESE 15 TO 20KTS. AS FEATURE WOUND UP OVERNIGHT 3-6 LOCALIZED SNOWFALL REPORTS NEAR MOT WITH THUNDER SNOW. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND RADAR RETURNS WEAKENING WITH NO LIGHTNING. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AREAS IN DVL BASIN COULD SEE QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTION AS LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL VALLEY. WINDS ALSO A CONCERN. GETTING SOME STRONG WINDS ON SW FLANK OF LOW WITH GUST GREATER THAN 40 MPH. WATER VAPOR INDICATING GOOD DARKENING ON SW FLANK AND MSAS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN FA. WITH SHORT TERM WIND/SNOW/VSBY PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AND FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PTNS OF DVL BASIN INTO FAR WESTERN FA SOON AS BRIEF SYSTEM UPGRADE IS COMPLETED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH BUT HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. WILL BE ADJUSTING WINDS AND POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Still some potential for a stinker although this is the first legit polar front storm threat of the season. The amplification potential is significant. If this thing even digs a tiny bit more or ejects a tad lower and you have a full blown major blizzard. If it comes in even a tick faster or less amplified it is a dud. Given the fast flow it is unlikely it amplfies much more (I do believe the CMC would be as absolutely good as it potentially can get). That said, I will hold off until the 0Zs. Ensembles still have some major stinkers...and given the sensitivity to tiny amplitude changes there really is no sure bet on this. HPC mentioning the weekend threat now. N Rockies/N Plains/Great Lakes region looks to get in on the action...if it verifies... THIS SHOULD BE A MOIST PATTERN FOR THE WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS THIS WEEKEND AS A CYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Saw my first snow of the year (I missed the first in NE when I was in Kansas City. This was shot at the LBF NWS office looking northeast. It was an awesome mid level frontogenesis event with negative EPV overlaid on top of the front. There was a shallow convective enhancement, and the 1-2 inches was not well handled by the guidance. A fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 This trough is going to be bringing quite a bit of wind across the entire length of the plains. This is just something you rarely see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Could get interesting this weekend in e ND, n MN as GFS, NAM & UKIE have a storm developing into n WI...looks like cold and wind & a few inches of snow possible as it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Please verify. I am so sick of fair weather friends yappin about how nice and warm it is. Not that I have any confidence posting the 10 day op Euro but look at the pool of sweet mother lode cold to the northwest and look at that beautiful ridge up there. If it's not going to snow at least get friggin cold so I can go ice fishing. Please. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 From Des Moines: QUIET WX AFT THAT WITH NO REAL ACTION UNTIL WE HEAD INTO NEXT WKND. WILL BE WATCHING THE UPR HI PRES DVLPG EAST OF NOVAYA ZEMLYA AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR CONECTION TO THE EPAC HI...I.E. A STRONGER +PNA PATTERN. ECMEF IS SUGGESTING THIS IN THE LATEST RUN AND MAY BE SIGNALLING THE LONG AWAITED SHIFT TOWARD DVLPG MORE TROF OVR ERN NOAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving from the Northeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 AFD from me for western NE. This was my portion...the near term and day 2 forecast. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 315 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011 ..HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... SYNOPSIS .LEESIDE SURFACE TROF AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS FROM OGALLALA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...VALENTINE WAS AT 74...THEDFORD WAS 75...AND 67 AT NORTH PLATTE. DISCUSSION NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO MERGE AND PHASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN RESPONSE WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER DARK WITH THE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH KEEPING THE WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROF AXIS SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARDS MORNING WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN IN THE VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS BRIEFLY AFTER DARK...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING DIFLUENT JET AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE RAPID AMPLIFICATION ENSUES BY THE EVENING AS THE POLAR BRANCH COMPLETES THE PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN ANOMALY. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROF AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH DEVELOPING NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST EFFICIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN. USED A BLEND OF CONSALL AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOSGUIDE AND MAV SUGGEST LOW END WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SUSTAINED NEAR 28-30 OVER DEUEL AND GARDEN COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 AFD from me for western NE. This was my portion...the near term and day 2 forecast. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 315 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011 ..HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... SYNOPSIS .LEESIDE SURFACE TROF AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS FROM OGALLALA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. BUMPED TEMPS UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...VALENTINE WAS AT 74...THEDFORD WAS 75...AND 67 AT NORTH PLATTE. DISCUSSION NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO MERGE AND PHASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN RESPONSE WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER DARK WITH THE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH KEEPING THE WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROF AXIS SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARDS MORNING WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN IN THE VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS BRIEFLY AFTER DARK...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING DIFLUENT JET AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE RAPID AMPLIFICATION ENSUES BY THE EVENING AS THE POLAR BRANCH COMPLETES THE PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN ANOMALY. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROF AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH DEVELOPING NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST EFFICIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN. USED A BLEND OF CONSALL AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOSGUIDE AND MAV SUGGEST LOW END WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SUSTAINED NEAR 28-30 OVER DEUEL AND GARDEN COUNTIES. That your first AFD? nice write up! Temp got to 62 here today, unreal...last year at this time i had a few inches of snow on the ground with temps in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 That your first AFD? nice write up! Temp got to 62 here today, unreal...last year at this time i had a few inches of snow on the ground with temps in the 20's. It actually was The first 8 months here were a lot of training and other job related stuff...so it was awesome to just get back into forecasting. Met is what I love. I need to forecast. And yeah...crazy warmth. Serious torching. Too warm for me, but I will admit it was nice out. Valentine shattered their record...they hit 75. Previous record was 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 It actually was The first 8 months here were a lot of training and other job related stuff...so it was awesome to just get back into forecasting. Met is what I love. I need to forecast. And yeah...crazy warmth. Serious torching. Too warm for me, but I will admit it was nice out. Valentine shattered their record...they hit 75. Previous record was 72. Well nice job on that...look forward to reading more AFD's written from you. I'm hoping for a pattern change to more cold/wintry scenario but looks to be awhile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 Well nice job on that...look forward to reading more AFD's written from you. I'm hoping for a pattern change to more cold/wintry scenario but looks to be awhile yet. Yeah it really does not have a classic look yet. Cold anomalies will continue to eject across the northern Rockies, but there are no major arctic intrusions in the medium range. Even then, there will still be some fun FROPA's to deal with. The beauty of weather forecasting is simple things like dry FROPA's most people could care less about on the weather forums are still very important forecast challenges. I love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 It is crazy windy out today. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 AFD from me for western NE. This was my portion...the near term and day 2 forecast. hey, you actually sound like you know what you're talking about! awesome write-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 There have been plenty of winds reports of 40-50mph on the observations across the W. TX/KS/NE areas. Should continue for a few more hours across the area. Thoughts on the potential for stronger convection across the LA/AR areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm not sure what the Nam is doing with the late week system but for e NE posters i hope it can score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm not sure what the Nam is doing with the late week system but for e NE posters i hope it can score a coup. I saw that, and I think it is on serious crack. The upper air maps almost don't look realistic with the way it ejects that elongated leading wave out of the Rockies. This late fall pattern has been pretty lame overall. Nice to see a pattern shift though...will have to see if it bears any fruits. At least it will be colder. Alaska has had enough of it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 looks like baro gets nailed via ggem/euro this weekend....ggem 0.78 euro 0.60 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 It looks like the first decent winter threat for the portions of the Central Plains. Phasing and timing of the kickout are pretty crucial. Amplification of the E Pacific Ridge also key. Guidance having issues with that feature and how far W the second waves digs into the 4 corners and the influence of the northern stream on the kicked out wave. Lots of moving parts in this forecast. I will probably start a storm thread here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It looks like the first decent winter threat for the portions of the Central Plains. Phasing and timing of the kickout are pretty crucial. Amplification of the E Pacific Ridge also key. Guidance having issues with that feature and how far W the second waves digs into the 4 corners and the influence of the northern stream on the kicked out wave. Lots of moving parts in this forecast. I will probably start a storm thread here soon. We got our thread going in the Lakes/OV region but thought id drop by to see if you guys did yet. I was just talking about how the placement of the southern wave when it kicks out is very crucial along the other factors you mentioned. A tough but fun forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I see you wrote the Aviation discussion this afternoon...they got you doing it all. .AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE STRATUS/LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT THE VTN TERMINAL BY 09Z /12Z FOR LBF/. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LASTING THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I see you wrote the Aviation discussion this afternoon...they got you doing it all. hehe, that wasn't me. That was actually one of the general mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 hehe, that wasn't me. That was actually one of the general mets. Ok, sorry...i must of read the name wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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