baroclinic_instability Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 86 here right now....winds could be 40+ gusts here on thu behind the front. Yeah it is going to be windy tomorrow. There will probably be a short three hour period around 18Z when the core of the strongest winds aloft have a threat to mix down as the low level cyclone passes to the E. Enjoy the wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Yeah it is going to be windy tomorrow. There will probably be a short three hour period around 18Z when the core of the strongest winds aloft have a threat to mix down as the low level cyclone passes to the E. Enjoy the wind! You nailed that...had wind gusts over 50 around lunch time but now around 40 - 45mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 You nailed that...had wind gusts over 50 around lunch time but now around 40 - 45mph. Sorry been away on vacation. in CO right now. I did see MPX put together a nice page of recorded wind gusts for the event. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=73499&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Knocking on the door of a top-10 all-time October high in Grand Forks. 85 at 1pm. Rank Value Ending Date 1 95 10/3/1922 2 94 10/1/1922 3 92 10/1/1992 4 89 10/22/1901 5 88 10/6/1920, 10/1/1914 7 87 10/7/1975, 10/1/1953, 10/3/1937 10 86 10/7/2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Knocking on the door of a top-10 all-time October high in Grand Forks. 85 at 1pm. Now 87 at 2PM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 88, now top-5. 90 in Crookston and Hallock, MN, 91 in southern Manitoba! edit - a look back at this day in 2005 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bis/sd2005/October.pdf October 4 and 5, 2005, brought an early and very significant blizzard to the Northern Plains including western and northern NorthDakota. A large band of 15 plus inches of snow fell from the southwest into the north central including from Bowman, through Amidon, New England, Medora, Dickinson, Halliday, Grassy Butte, Garrison, Max, Tioga, Berthold and Minot, to Towner. The heaviest snow was at Dunn Center, Manning, Marshall and Bowbells all with 22 inches, Beach with 20 inches, and Fairfield, Hebron, and Richardton all with 18 inches. Visibility dropped to zero for an extended period of time at Dickinson and Minot and to less than a quarter mile at Hettinger and Williston in snow and blowing snow. Winds gusted to 48 mph at Minot, 45 mph at Hettinger, 40 mph at Williston, and 35 mph at Dickinson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Now 87 at 2PM! 88, now top-5. 90 in Crookston and Hallock, MN, 91 in southern Manitoba! edit - a look back at this day in 2005 http://www.crh.noaa....005/October.pdf That is some pretty incredible stuff. South winds do the valley area wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 made it to 88 here today...lots of dust/dirt blowing out in the open areas, very dry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 made it to 88 here today...lots of dust/dirt blowing out in the open areas, very dry . Gusts to 43 MPH here with a sustained 25-30. It is bone dry, and we have been in a Red Flag warning the last two days as a result. Same here...very dry and a lot of blowing dust/dirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Winds really kickin today in the valley...been sustained near 40 with gusts to 60 mph. With it being so dry there's a ton of blowing dust in the air. Can't really complain though with temperatures running nearly 20 degrees above average so far for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Very very dry here, I can't even remember the last time we had a good appreciable rain. We have to go all the way back to July here. It doesn't look like this system is going to make a dent here. We look to be just on the edge of the decent rain! Winter better make up for this boring weather! I'm losing my passion for weather with 80+ degrees and sunny for the majority of the last three months is sure boring! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Very very dry here, I can't even remember the last time we had a good appreciable rain. We have to go all the way back to July here. It doesn't look like this system is going to make a dent here. We look to be just on the edge of the decent rain! Winter better make up for this boring weather! I'm losing my passion for weather with 80+ degrees and sunny for the majority of the last three months is sure boring! Haha Very dry here also, had a total of 0.31 for all of september & nothing so far for the 1st week of october. Windy with temp at 78 as of 9:15pm with rain/tstorm band just to my west but not making much progress eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 First "winter storm potential"of the season in the plains mentioned in the BIS AFD...if the ecmwf wasn't showing the possibility then i wouldn't of posted. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 252 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2011 THE SPREAD OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE PROPAGATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WAVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE 00 AND 12 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF OFFER A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS LAGS THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE...YET STILL MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LOW...WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH A BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 First "winter storm potential"of the season in the plains mentioned in the BIS AFD...if the ecmwf wasn't showing the possibility then i wouldn't of posted. Hmm. It is interesting because my friend I graduated with wrote that (the long-term). I am not seeing what he is talking about though regarding a winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Hmm. It is interesting because my friend I graduated with wrote that (the long-term). I am not seeing what he is talking about though regarding a winter storm... Maybe he's just getting a little excited for the upcoming season...18z GFS trying to get some snow or mix into n MN next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 i've been gone for a while from lawrence and just got back yesterday...the wind has been crushing this drought-browned leaves and so many trees are already almost bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Was just glancing ahead to next week and it looks like it could get interesting in the northern plains. Euro and GEM both develop a low in the central/northern plains and move it north in southern ontario. The 00z GFS was much flatter and weaker but the 12z has trended a bit towards the Euro/GEM. Granted it's nearly a week away but exciting nonetheless with the potential to bring many areas their first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Was just glancing ahead to next week and it looks like it could get interesting in the northern plains. Euro and GEM both develop a low in the central/northern plains and move it north in southern ontario. The 00z GFS was much flatter and weaker but the 12z has trended a bit towards the Euro/GEM. Granted it's nearly a week away but exciting nonetheless with the potential to bring many areas their first flakes. Here's the latest GGEM at 144...12z Euro still has it but faster than the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Was just glancing ahead to next week and it looks like it could get interesting in the northern plains. Euro and GEM both develop a low in the central/northern plains and move it north in southern ontario. The 00z GFS was much flatter and weaker but the 12z has trended a bit towards the Euro/GEM. Granted it's nearly a week away but exciting nonetheless with the potential to bring many areas their first flakes. Here's the latest GGEM at 144...12z Euro still has it but faster than the ggem. It is still on the table. The guidance has been having sensitivity issues in response the amplitude of the leading wave ahead of the mean trough. The one for sure is there will be a cold air dump and a strong low level baro zone. GFS op was weak, but the ensembles have some beefy runs. Euro is beefy too with a significant early season snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Tomorrow (Monday Oct 31) marks the 20th Anniversary of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard. I remember it well...started off with rain then freezing rain followed by 11" of snow. Power was out for 2 days, many kids were disappointed as trick-or-treating was canceled until the following monday...very awesome storm. Couple of links for those who wish to revisit that storm. Link1 Link2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Tomorrow (Monday Oct 31) marks the 20th Anniversary of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard. I remember it well...started off with rain then freezing rain followed by 11" of snow. Power was out for 2 days, many kids were disappointed as trick-or-treating was canceled until the following monday...very awesome storm. Couple of links for those who wish to revisit that storm. Link1 Link2 A true Minnesota classic blizzard, the benchmark for a trough-vortex merger. Gulf Lows in MN are RARE. The track that storm took was absolutely insane...nearly due N from Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 Almost ready to pull the trigger on a storm thread, but one ECMWF run isn't going to do it for me. EC has had a few of these strong runs mixed in with a number of weak runs. GFS/CMC are also weak and much farther E, but the 0Z ECM still suggests a thread for portions of MN/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Almost ready to pull the trigger on a storm thread, but one ECMWF run isn't going to do it for me. EC has had a few of these strong runs mixed in with a number of weak runs. GFS/CMC are also weak and much farther E, but the 0Z ECM still suggests a thread for portions of MN/IA. Baro, what are your thoughts on the potential next week?...is the euro out to lunch on this as it's the only model showing the w/n solution? I flopped on the storm thread i started last week so i'll pass on starting one for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 Baro, what are your thoughts on the potential next week?...is the euro out to lunch on this as it's the only model showing the w/n solution? I flopped on the storm thread i started last week so i'll pass on starting one for awhile. I don't think it is out to lunch, if you look at the various globals there are relatively small scale differences in how they eject the western trough and how much tilt it takes. Timing differences on the northern stream as the wave passes across the plains...even the weaker GFS/CMC runs are close to wrapping it up...there is quite a bit of amplification potential with that type of arctic surge and a decent GOM moisture fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I don't think it is out to lunch, if you look at the various globals there are relatively small scale differences in how they eject the western trough and how much tilt it takes. Timing differences on the northern stream as the wave passes across the plains...even the weaker GFS/CMC runs are close to wrapping it up...there is quite a bit of amplification potential with that type of arctic surge and a decent GOM moisture fetch. 12z CMC/GFS have came north with the tue/wed event...if ECM holds on 12z then a thread should be started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 12z CMC/GFS have came north with the tue/wed event...if ECM holds on 12z then a thread should be started. I was thinking about it, GFS is still an east outlier and much faster with the northern stream wave. NAM came around though. I still haven't seen the CMC (link to your site yet?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I was thinking about it, GFS is still an east outlier and much faster with the northern stream wave. NAM came around though. I still haven't seen the CMC (link to your site yet?). HPC day 3 snow prob...looks like baro gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 HPC day 3 snow prob...looks like baro gets some snow. Well I am in MN right now. With my luck I will miss both...so that will make two snow events in NE that I will miss during the time I was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 00z GFS looks to have the makings of a big time system somewhere after 144 hrs, which has been consistent for multiple runs in a row now. Should such a situation manifest itself, the developing Bermuda high and SE ridge would create a favorable pattern for moisture advection into the Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley. Edit: Euro has a pretty significant system as well (which has also shown up several runs in a row). GFS is faster than this solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Well who is going to start it? Even in the lowest amplitude wave form, there is a very good threat for a significant winter event across the northern plains with that type of baroclinic zone day 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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