#NoPoles Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 well, that's a sure sign summer is over... all i have to say about winter- BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Going to be a wind show tomorrow across North Dakota. These rapidly intensifying bent back lows have a tendency to be efficient wind machines since they are so conducive to deep mixing/subsidence on the cold side of the low. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few 60 gusts near the valley. 1-2 inches of wind driven rain possible also with the storm. Where's "cmichweather"...he still around? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 312 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...HIGH WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY GUST OVER 55 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...AND THIS MAY CAUSE WAVES FROM 4 TO 7 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD BED EROSION. ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THEN SPREAD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES FROM 4 TO 7 FEET ON DEVILS LAKE WHICH COULD CAUSE BEACH AND ROAD BED EROSION. WAVES COULD WASH DEBRIS OVER LOW LYING ROADWAYS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 1-2 inches of wind driven rain possible also with the storm. Where's "cmichweather"...he still around? He is, but he is looking to finish his M.S. this December, so he has been on much less lately (for good reason). Devils Lake will be ground zero based on how far W this system will be bent-back. Should see 60-65 MPH wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 well, that's a sure sign summer is over... all i have to say about winter- BRING IT! I have had enough of summer. This fall weather has been awesome. Loving the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Shifting gears only slightly, I think the fall colors this year are going to suck...I've seen lots of trees during this last week that are starting to turn straight brown. Another consequence of the lack of rain this summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 win. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVEPATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ASTRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A VERY STRONG TROUGH OFFTHE ALASKAN COAST. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FIND THEFORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCEALOFT AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. FROM THAT POINT ON...LONGTERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENTOF THE RIDGE/TROUGH AXIS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OFENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECASTAREA AND THUS DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVELFLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH APERSISTENT NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. WITH ALL OFTHIS SAID...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTYOF SUN...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...AND DRY CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 win. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVEPATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ASTRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A VERY STRONG TROUGH OFFTHE ALASKAN COAST. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FIND THEFORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCEALOFT AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. FROM THAT POINT ON...LONGTERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENTOF THE RIDGE/TROUGH AXIS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OFENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECASTAREA AND THUS DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVELFLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH APERSISTENT NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. WITH ALL OFTHIS SAID...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTYOF SUN...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...AND DRY CONDITIONS. and if you hadn't had such an awful summer...this would make for great Autumn foliage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Absolutely gorgeous on satellite. Great looking warm conveyor belt feeding into the difluent jet circulation aloft. COld front bringing the pain with night time gusts in the 50s at Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 She sure is a beaut. Looks like the first appreciable storm I'll see out here. 1-2 inches of rain with gusts possibly into the 50s up here in north dakota...not bad at all. Now if only I can get a few of these in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 got some tstorms firing in SD & w MN...some lightning here to the west at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Guess where the cold front is. Gosh I love FROPA. Pretty impressive frontal circulation with wind gusts along the front in excess of 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 VAD at KLNX (Thedford) behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 c'mon cold front...you can do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Absolutely gorgeous on satellite. Great looking warm conveyor belt feeding into the difluent jet circulation aloft. Even looks more impressive this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Guess where the cold front is. Gosh I love FROPA. Pretty impressive frontal circulation with wind gusts along the front in excess of 45 MPH. Yeah that was pretty cool watching it on radar this morning. I'm loving this 67 degrees with 32 dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Even looks more impressive this morning It is the eye of mordor. A pretty spectacular looking deep occlusion. Pierre had a gust to 66 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yeah that was pretty cool watching it on radar this morning. I'm loving this 67 degrees with 32 dewpoint. I know! NAM had us dropping the dews into the 20s later. That would be glorious. That was honestly one of the fastest surging fronts I have seen in a while. It cleared Nebraska in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 0234 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E HAYES 44.37N 100.90W09/20/2011 M69 MPH STANLEY SD CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It is the eye of mordor. A pretty spectacular looking deep occlusion. Pierre had a gust to 66 earlier. A 12 hour loop or so if it is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Top gust was a mesonet station with a 75 mph gust. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#ABR/201109200500/201109210459/0100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Top gust was a mesonet station with a 75 mph gust. http://mesonet.agron...1109210459/0100 WOW, and thats non-storm wind too! talk about great mixing/subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Looks like the storm has all but ended across eastern ND, with the exception of some gusty winds that should hang around for a good part of the day. Picked up 1.18" it looks like, with a max wind gust of 44mph. Winds were a bit lighter here than I originally expected, but still not bad. This was probably due to the low closing off a little earlier and further west than expected, not allowing the strong backside winds to move in until later when the gradient was decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 can't complain Lol, I like Topeka's "weather rating" guide on the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 hard to believe that we are still about a month away from the first freeze when temps have hit the low 40's several times now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Lol, I like Topeka's "weather rating" guide on the left. Hahaha, so how does one achieve "perfect"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hahaha, so how does one achieve "perfect"? no idea....highs 70-75 with lows dropping into the 40's is perfect in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 Another significant cold front expected to push through on Thursday. If the timing is right it may be pushing through in time for my 12Z balloon launch. Otherwise a pretty classic fall front with the upper wave originating as a low amplitude wave of the BC/Alberta Rockies. It will be a pleasant and dry FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 86 right now...feels oppressive despite being 26 degrees lower than our summertime high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Another significant cold front expected to push through on Thursday. If the timing is right it may be pushing through in time for my 12Z balloon launch. Otherwise a pretty classic fall front with the upper wave originating as a low amplitude wave of the BC/Alberta Rockies. It will be a pleasant and dry FROPA. 86 here right now....winds could be 40+ gusts here on thu behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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