A day in the life of the NYC Metro Forum

[famartin]

I doubt that the winter is completely over by 2/10. Late Feb and March usually present another threat or two in Nina winters. If I were to guess, 65-70" is a good estimate for what Central Park gets this winter. Maybe another minor and moderate-significant storm will do it.

I must say I do enjoy those who are using La Nina climo to say that winter's not done yet, when La Nina climo also says that what has already transipred this winter shouldn't have happened

In other words, in a winter which has been very un La Nina like thus far, using climo isn't the greatest idea...

[nzucker]

Yes indeed-- this is why the 100 inches max from the 1800s is probably the limit.

100" is probably about the limit for Central Park or JFK in the climate of human civilization. The short duration of the snow season and mixing issues in many bigger storms make it harder to get truly prolific amounts of snow in these locales. I'd say my location, having some elevation to the north of NYC, could probably see like 120" in an ideal season during a Little Ice Age climate. The colder climate would add a few weeks to the winter, so you'd have from roughly November 15-April 15 to get that amount. Considering we had 90" in 60-61, which was half a winter outside the 1800's solar minimum, I'd have to think the 120"-130" is realistic for this area provided the pattern remained favorable for Nor'easters with a +PNA/-NAO all season.

Snow Wizard is dancing on our snow graves haha (see main forum.) He deserves his snow too but sometimes (especially back in the 80s and early 90s) I wished we had the technology to fry the Pacific Ocean.... no more ENSO no more problems.

Yes, he is about to get hammered while we suffer, but we knew this would happen in a strong La Niña at some point, and February is usually the time. I am really hoping we get a weak Niña next year so we can have this cold climate regime dominate but with a more consistently positive PNA and longer duration of NAO blocking. It would help to get rid of the strong stratospheric vortex that's developed so hopefully the QBO will return towards neutral next year.

[Guest Pamela]

100" is probably about the limit for Central Park or JFK in the climate of human civilization. The short duration of the snow season and mixing issues in many bigger storms make it harder to get truly prolific amounts of snow in these locales. I'd say my location, having some elevation to the north of NYC, could probably see like 120" in an ideal season during a Little Ice Age climate. The colder climate would add a few weeks to the winter, so you'd have from roughly November 15-April 15 to get that amount. Considering we had 90" in 60-61, which was half a winter outside the 1800's solar minimum, I'd have to think the 120"-130" is realistic for this area provided the pattern remained favorable for Nor'easters with a +PNA/-NAO all season.

Believe me, 100" is no walk in the park. Even Albany, with a mean of around 60", has cracked the century mark just twice in 74 years...and three times in 128.

[A-L-E-X]

100" is probably about the limit for Central Park or JFK in the climate of human civilization. The short duration of the snow season and mixing issues in many bigger storms make it harder to get truly prolific amounts of snow in these locales. I'd say my location, having some elevation to the north of NYC, could probably see like 120" in an ideal season during a Little Ice Age climate. The colder climate would add a few weeks to the winter, so you'd have from roughly November 15-April 15 to get that amount. Considering we had 90" in 60-61, which was half a winter outside the 1800's solar minimum, I'd have to think the 120"-130" is realistic for this area provided the pattern remained favorable for Nor'easters with a +PNA/-NAO all season.

Yes, he is about to get hammered while we suffer, but we knew this would happen in a strong La Niña at some point, and February is usually the time. I am really hoping we get a weak Niña next year so we can have this cold climate regime dominate but with a more consistently positive PNA and longer duration of NAO blocking. It would help to get rid of the strong stratospheric vortex that's developed so hopefully the QBO will return towards neutral next year.

I dont know his particular location, but isnt it pretty rare for Seattle to get snow-- I think they average 8" or so. Hopefully he has some elevation; that should help him out. He once told me that if there is a trough in the east and one in the west (omega block) it still doesnt help him, there has to be a SE Ridge and a positive NAO otherwise he's screwed. I guess the NAO affects them out there also.

Hey, I had a question for which I have never found a good answer.... positive NAO is definitely bad for us..... east based negative NAO is definitely bad for us..... only west based negative NAO is good..... does that mean 75% of the time the NAO is unfavorable for us (assuming 50/50 neg-pos and 50/50 east-west).

[A-L-E-X]

Believe me, 100" is no walk in the park. Even Albany, with a mean of around 60", has cracked the century mark just twice in 74 years...and three times in 128.

It's doable though-- but it would likely be a once in 50 year thing. Our climate is more extreme than Albany's.

[Guest Pamela]

It's doable though-- but it would likely be a once in 50 year thing. Our climate is more extreme than Albany's.

Not really....the average Albany winter is about as cold as the most severely cold winter this area has ever seen...and rain is considerably less common there during the winter. I consider Albany, although minimally impacted by lake effect, to be a snow town.

[nzucker]

Believe me, 100" is no walk in the park. Even Albany, with a mean of around 60", has cracked the century mark just twice in 74 years...and three times in 128.

This isn't really an accurate comparison though since they're not affected by major coastal Nor'easters. The reason NYC metro can do 100" is because of the chance for 20" snowstorms that Albany doesn't get. The way that places like Upstate NY and Vermont get their snowfalls is mostly SW flow events, where max amounts tend to be in the 12-15" range, and even that's a rarity. The areas near the coast have way more variance in snowfall which is why Dobbs Ferry could have 90" one year and 30" the next.

It's doable though-- but it would likely be a once in 50 year thing. Our climate is more extreme than Albany's.

One in 50 year? Maybe one in 300 years LOL.

Parts of Northern Maryland had near 100" last year, and BWI had like 80". If they can get that much in what amounts to a two-month winter, NYC can get 100".

[A-L-E-X]

Not really....the average Albany winter is about as cold as the most severely cold winter this area has ever seen...and rain is considerably less common there during the winter. I consider Albany, although minimally impacted by lake effect, to be a snow town.

Oh, I should clarify-- I mean that in terms of snowfall they deviate much less from the norm than we do.

[A-L-E-X]

This isn't really an accurate comparison though since they're not affected by major coastal Nor'easters. The reason NYC metro can do 100" is because of the chance for 20" snowstorms that Albany doesn't get. The way that places like Upstate NY and Vermont get their snowfalls is mostly SW flow events, where max amounts tend to be in the 12-15" range, and even that's a rarity. The areas near the coast have way more variance in snowfall which is why Dobbs Ferry could have 90" one year and 30" the next.

One in 50 year? Maybe one in 300 years LOL.

Parts of Northern Maryland had near 100" last year, and BWI had like 80". If they can get that much in what amounts to a two-month winter, NYC can get 100".

lol maybe one in 100 years on average. It happened like 3 times in the 1800s. Last winter was strictly a Dec and Feb winter, even down there.

[Guest Pamela]

This isn't really an accurate comparison though since they're not affected by major coastal Nor'easters. The reason NYC metro can do 100" is because of the chance for 20" snowstorms that Albany doesn't get. The way that places like Upstate NY and Vermont get their snowfalls is mostly SW flow events, where max amounts tend to be in the 12-15" range, and even that's a rarity. The areas near the coast have way more variance in snowfall which is why Dobbs Ferry could have 90" one year and 30" the next.

Yes, I suppose the 47" that fell there in the March 1888 storm was a SW flow event....plenty of Nor'easters are big snow producers in Albany while bringing rain to the coast and nearby inland areas...

The variance is because coastal areas are more temperature dependent. Portland, Maine's totals can be schizophrenic, but Caribou is always up around 100".

[jm1220]

I must say I do enjoy those who are using La Nina climo to say that winter's not done yet, when La Nina climo says that what has already transipred this winter shouldn't have happened

3/1/09, 3/5/01, 2/22/08, and 3/14/99 at least give me some hope!!

[Guest Pamela]

Yes, I suppose the 47" that fell there in the March 1888 storm was a SW flow event....plenty of Nor'easters are big snow producers in Albany while bringing rain to the coast and nearby inland areas...

The variance is because coastal areas are more temperature dependent. Portland, Maine's totals can be schizophrenic, but Caribou is always up around 100".

Top 20 Greatest Snowstorms

Albany NY

All data on this page is unofficial

(National Climatic Data Center - official data source)

Amount (inches)MonthDate(s)Year

46.7

March 11-14 1888

26.6

March 13-14 1993

26.4

December 25-28 1969

24.7

December 13-15 1915

24.5

January 15-16 1983

23.5

February 14 1914

23.5

December 18-22 1887

22.5

November 24-25 1971

21.0

December 25-26 2002

20.8

January 3-4 2003

19.6

December 14-18 1981

18.8

March 13-14 1984

18.3

December 24-25 1966

18.2

February 22-25 1893

18.0

December 6-7 2003

17.9

February 15-16 1958

17.9

January 18-20 1936

17.8

March 8-12 1941

17.7

April 6-7 1982

17.6

January 14-19 1958

[Chris L]

I have to say, that snow total for Albany will never be broken, I mean, its 20.1 inches higher than the next one!

[NorthShoreWx]

It's doable though-- but it would likely be a once in 50 year thing. Our climate is more extreme than Albany's.

More like 200 years. It would be truly a fluke. As last winter in the MA proved, it can happen, but so can a 200 year flood.

[NorthShoreWx]

This isn't really an accurate comparison though since they're not affected by major coastal Nor'easters.

I disagree with this. I remember when coastal huggers seemed to be the norm and Albany got crushed repeatedly. Its all cyclical, IMHO. They do get quite a few 20 inchers there...its not like central and western PA or NY outside of the lake snow belts.

[A-L-E-X]

More like 200 years. It would be truly a fluke. As last winter in the MA proved, it can happen, but so can a 200 year flood.

Yeah 50 years is too soon.... Nate said 300 and I revised mine to 100, so I guess your 200 is a good in between guess. I know 50" is a once in 10 year thing, 75 inches might be a once in 50-100 year thing and 100 inches once in 100-200 year event. It happened 3 times in the 1800s and not since then. Maybe a bit more "common" over parts of Long Island, where its possible they might have had 100" in 1995-96.

[A-L-E-X]

Wow, does Albany hold the record for maximum snowfall from the March 1888 Blizzard?

I have a question.... does anyone have a copy of the map that was posted on the old Eastern site..... I remember it had totals from the March 1888 blizzard and it showed 26" over southern Brooklyn.... 38" over the north shore.... either Queens or Nassau (couldnt tell from the map) and had that astonishing 44" from New Haven.... which I am still amazed by, the south shore of CT got 44".... of course, since Cape May, NJ got 34" in Feb 1899.... I guess the upper limit for snowstorms around here is higher than we think.

[jm1220]

This isn't really an accurate comparison though since they're not affected by major coastal Nor'easters. The reason NYC metro can do 100" is because of the chance for 20" snowstorms that Albany doesn't get. The way that places like Upstate NY and Vermont get their snowfalls is mostly SW flow events, where max amounts tend to be in the 12-15" range, and even that's a rarity. The areas near the coast have way more variance in snowfall which is why Dobbs Ferry could have 90" one year and 30" the next.

One in 50 year? Maybe one in 300 years LOL.

Parts of Northern Maryland had near 100" last year, and BWI had like 80". If they can get that much in what amounts to a two-month winter, NYC can get 100".

Upstate NY and even much of PA can get crippling 2 foot or more snowstorms as well. VD 2007 brought up to 30" for much of upstate NY and Vermont, and was very close to doing the same for me at State College had it not been for the primary hanging on so long. March 1993 was crippling, as was March 3, 1994 which brought 28" to State College, PA. The Dec 1992 snowstorm brought 2 foot totals as well to much of interior PA, NY and New England. I remember specifically the Tax Day 2007 nor'easter being progged for days as being a 1-2+ foot snow event for the interior.

Appalachian locations can benefit just as we do from favorable storm tracks since they benefit from the Atlantic as well. It just so happens that the prevailing storm track over the last 5-7 years or so has changed significantly to their detriment. Coast huggers are much less prevalent now than they were a decade or so ago.

[A-L-E-X]

Upstate NY and even much of PA can get crippling 2 foot or more snowstorms as well. VD 2007 brought up to 30" for much of upstate NY and Vermont. March 1993 was crippling, as was March 3, 1994 which brought 28" to State College, PA. The Dec 1992 snowstorm brought 2 foot totals as well to much of interior PA, NY and New England. I remember specifically the Tax Day 2007 nor'easter being progged for days as being a 1-2+ foot snow event for the interior.

Appalachian locations can benefit just as we do from favorable storm tracks since they benefit from the Atlantic as well. It just so happens that the prevailing storm track over the last 5-7 years or so has changed significantly to their detriment. Coast huggers are much less prevalent now than they were a decade or so ago.

Will got close to three feet in the Dec 1992 monster three day storm. I believe Syracuse and State College did well in both Dec 1992 and Mar 1993. 3 - 4 feet!

Didnt some place in North Carolina get 50" from March 1993?

[nzucker]

Yes, I suppose the 47" that fell there in the March 1888 storm was a SW flow event....plenty of Nor'easters are big snow producers in Albany while bringing rain to the coast and nearby inland areas...

The variance is because coastal areas are more temperature dependent. Portland, Maine's totals can be schizophrenic, but Caribou is always up around 100".

I don't mean to say that Albany doesn't get Nor'easters, but so few of them in the last decade have had much of an effect up there. Storms like 1/28/11, Boxing Day, 2/10/10, 2/5/10, 12/19/09, 3/1/09 basically did nothing up there. I suppose there's been a distinct tendency away from coastal huggers, but I still don't feel the potential is great for Albany to see a lot of hits from Nor'easters in one season as it is for New York City. There's just too many big events that track a bit too offshore for the Capital District.

More like 200 years. It would be truly a fluke. As last winter in the MA proved, it can happen, but so can a 200 year flood.

Last winter proved that NYC can exceed 100". Baltimore measured over 80"...they're much farther south with a shorter cold season and less chances to get hit by Miller B storms.

Wow, does Albany hold the record for maximum snowfall from the March 1888 Blizzard?

No...Saratoga, just a half hour drive to the north, had 58" snowfall.

Upstate NY and even much of PA can get crippling 2 foot or more snowstorms as well. VD 2007 brought up to 30" for much of upstate NY and Vermont, and was very close to doing the same for me at State College had it not been for the primary hanging on so long. March 1993 was crippling, as was March 3, 1994 which brought 28" to State College, PA. The Dec 1992 snowstorm brought 2 foot totals as well to much of interior PA, NY and New England. I remember specifically the Tax Day 2007 nor'easter being progged for days as being a 1-2+ foot snow event for the interior.

Appalachian locations can benefit just as we do from favorable storm tracks since they benefit from the Atlantic as well. It just so happens that the prevailing storm track over the last 5-7 years or so has changed significantly to their detriment. Coast huggers are much less prevalent now than they were a decade or so ago.

Believe me...I was in Vermont for V-Day 2007, I realize they can get crippling 20"+ events. Some parts of the Adirondacks got well over a foot from Tax Day 2007. It's rarer up there though.

[Guest Pamela]

Last winter proved that NYC can exceed 100". .

The only thing that will prove NYC can exceed 100" in a single winter is when the man (or woman) who measures snow there tips the 100" mark...hasn't happened yet.

[jm1220]

Will got close to three feet in the Dec 1992 monster three day storm. I believe Syracuse and State College did well in both Dec 1992 and Mar 1993. 3 - 4 feet!

Didnt some place in North Carolina get 50" from March 1993?

State College had around 18" in 12/92 because they mixed with rain on/off. They also had 18" on 11/14/95 and suffered massive tree damage. 3/93 was over 2 feet there and localized spots in the higher PA ridges had over 3 feet. I think Mt. Mitchell, NC had over 4 feet.

Even bigger though for them was 3/94, which dumped almost 30" in State College and had constant thundersnows. This was also at a time when there was 2 feet on the ground from the numerous other 93-94 storms. There are old Daily Collegian stories (PSU's newspaper) I believe detailing how impassable the campus and State College were. 95-96 was also a huge winter there.

The 1990s in general were a huge decade there. Even 97-98 was an above avg. winter, I think around 50" fell. The idea that interior NY/PA doesn't see massive snow events like we do is just wrong. Climo has changed recently to favor us over them with offshore storm tracks. If we're really headed back to a very old weather regime where these patterns are favored, the long term averages will likely lessen there and increase here.

[Guest Pamela]

I don't mean to say that Albany doesn't get Nor'easters, but so few of them in the last decade have had much of an effect up there. Storms like 1/28/11, Boxing Day, 2/10/10, 2/5/10, 12/19/09, 3/1/09 basically did nothing up there. I suppose there's been a distinct tendency away from coastal huggers, but I still don't feel the potential is great for Albany to see a lot of hits from Nor'easters in one season as it is for New York City. There's just too many big events that track a bit too offshore for the Capital District.

You are admittedly only looking at the last few years...NYC may have the potential to see more precipitation during the winter than Albany from coastal storms...but Albany has a much better chance of that precipitation being in the form of snow.

[nzucker]

The only thing that will prove NYC can exceed 100" in a single winter is when the man (or woman) who measures snow there tips the 100" mark...hasn't happened yet.

I thought that had already happened once or twice in the 1800s? Weren't there some unofficial measurements of 100" seasons back then?

You are admittedly only looking at the last few years...NYC may have the potential to see more precipitation during the winter than Albany from coastal storms...but Albany has a much better chance of that precipitation being in the form of snow.

Agreed, but I think it's all about just seeing a lot of precipitation. NYC could hit 100" if we had a lot of coastal storms that stayed all snow due to a favorable -NAO/-AO/-EPO pattern. Parts of Cape Cod had nearly 100" in 2004-05, and their climo isn't as good as NYC metro in general.

I also think the 90" total in Dobbs Ferry from the downtown co-op at low elevation proves that 100" has happened in Westchester, probably that year of 60-61. There are some higher ridges in the area near 500' and some parts of Northern Westchester approach 1000'. They must have passed the century mark that year, and probably a few other times.

[A-L-E-X]

The only thing that will prove NYC can exceed 100" in a single winter is when the man (or woman) who measures snow there tips the 100" mark...hasn't happened yet.

William, I thought you were in agreement that, considering how climate patterns shift and how small our dataset is, that its quite possible it could happen And we have 3 years from the 1800s when, according to records it did happen. Of course, the climate isnt the same now, so who knows. But who knows if we might be headed that way again.

[Kaner587]

100 inches is overrated

I'm only partially kidding because the 2 times i saw over 100 inches in a season (when I was up at Syracuse) we were nickled and dimed to all hell, and after a while its just no fun. If we got 100 inches in the NYC metro area it'd likely be a lot different and a lot more enjoyable than LES.

[A-L-E-X]

State College had around 18" in 12/92 because they mixed with rain on/off. They also had 18" on 11/14/95 and suffered massive tree damage. 3/93 was over 2 feet there and localized spots in the higher PA ridges had over 3 feet. I think Mt. Mitchell, NC had over 4 feet.

Even bigger though for them was 3/94, which dumped almost 30" in State College and had constant thundersnows. This was also at a time when there was 2 feet on the ground from the numerous other 93-94 storms. There are old Daily Collegian stories (PSU's newspaper) I believe detailing how impassable the campus and State College were. 95-96 was also a huge winter there.

The 1990s in general were a huge decade there. Even 97-98 was an above avg. winter, I think around 50" fell. The idea that interior NY/PA doesn't see massive snow events like we do is just wrong. Climo has changed recently to favor us over them with offshore storm tracks. If we're really headed back to a very old weather regime where these patterns are favored, the long term averages will likely lessen there and increase here.

I spent some time in the Poconos in 1993-94 and the snow was so high it cut off the ground floor of a lot of houses-- and this was snowcover not drifts. It was like this over level ground over large distances. Ive never seen anything like that before or since.

[NorthShoreWx]

I thought that had already happened once or twice in the 1800s? Weren't there some unofficial measurements of 100" seasons back then?

Agreed, but I think it's all about just seeing a lot of precipitation. NYC could hit 100" if we had a lot of coastal storms that stayed all snow due to a favorable -NAO/-AO/-EPO pattern. Parts of Cape Cod had nearly 100" in 2004-05, and their climo isn't as good as NYC metro in general.

I also think the 90" total in Dobbs Ferry from the downtown co-op at low elevation proves that 100" has happened in Westchester, probably that year of 60-61. There are some higher ridges in the area near 500' and some parts of Northern Westchester approach 1000'. They must have passed the century mark that year, and probably a few other times.

This probably has happened in the northern part of the county at elevation. Possibly more than once.

[Guest Pamela]

I also think the 90" total in Dobbs Ferry from the downtown co-op at low elevation proves that 100" has happened in Westchester, probably that year of 60-61. There are some higher ridges in the area near 500' and some parts of Northern Westchester approach 1000'. They must have passed the century mark that year, and probably a few other times.

I'm not so sure, at least during that winter. In 1960-61, Bedford Hills had just 70.7", Scarsdale 76.2", and Yorktown 82.5".

[jm1220]

I spent some time in the Poconos in 1993-94 and the snow was so high it cut off the ground floor of a lot of houses-- and this was snowcover not drifts. It was like this over level ground over large distances. Ive never seen anything like that before or since.

93-94 was State College's #1 winter, I think close to 120 inches. 92-93 was close to 100 inches, so truly a massive back to back snowblitz.