A day in the life of the NYC Metro Forum

[A-L-E-X]

I'm not sure about factoring a hurricane into the equation, but 7 KU storms (all with big impacts in the region) in 23 months is entirely unprecedented.

Not to mention the amazingly awesome summer we had that I will treasure as my favorite summer of all time plus the three tornado warnings and the macroburst. Dont forget the March storm with hurricane force winds too!

[Analog96]

Not to mention the amazingly awesome summer we had that I will treasure as my favorite summer of all time plus the three tornado warnings and the macroburst. Dont forget the March storm with hurricane force winds too!

That March storm basically had the effects of a Cat I hurricane.

[A-L-E-X]

That March storm basically had the effects of a Cat I hurricane.

Do you remember the EWR temp incident on the hottest day of the year? LOL that was interesting.

[Analog96]

Do you remember the EWR temp incident on the hottest day of the year? LOL that was interesting.

106 at my house. 106 at Harrison, 104 at New Providence (whom I know has been keeping records for many years and is a quality observer) at 264' elevation, but they went in and coded in a 103. Don't remind me.

[A-L-E-X]

106 at my house. 106 at Harrison, 104 at New Providence (whom I know has been keeping records for many years and is a quality observer) at 264' elevation, but they went in and coded in a 103. Don't remind me.

I think one of the Rutgers campuses recorded 106 also.

[Analog96]

I think one of the Rutgers campuses recorded 106 also.

I believe Rutgers N/B hit 105. My two electronic thermometers both reached 106.5, but I was not about to code in 107. I actually wanted it to go a little higher to "truly" verify it if it were going to hit 107, and it did not, so I left it at 106.

[Stormlover74]

I do but one can hope :-)

You realize that those two don't really go together back there, yes?

[nzucker]

I'm not sure about factoring a hurricane into the equation, but 7 KU storms (all with big impacts in the region) in 23 months is entirely unprecedented.

I agree that the series of KU storms has been pretty impressive (especially for the mid-Atlantic in 09-10), as well as the record-setting heat in Summer 2010 and Spring 2010. It's definitely been an incredible stretch for meteorology lovers and weenies in NYC metro...we've seen everything from wicked blizzards to temperatures over 100F to tornadoes in the span of a single year. And this will be the greatest back-to-back winters for Central Park in history in terms of total snowfall AND major snowstorms.

However, Winter 60-61 still blows them all away for Westchester...90" total snowfall here and just a ridiculous stretch in late January before the blizzard in terms of cold and snow cover. Here are the stats in the form high, low, snowfall, snow cover:

[Analog96]

I agree that the series of KU storms has been pretty impressive (especially for the mid-Atlantic in 09-10), as well as the record-setting heat in Summer 2010 and Spring 2010. It's definitely been an incredible stretch for meteorology lovers and weenies in NYC metro...we've seen everything from wicked blizzards to temperatures over 100F to tornadoes in the span of a single year. And this will be the greatest back-to-back winters for Central Park in history in terms of total snowfall AND major snowstorms.

However, Winter 60-61 still blows them all away for Westchester...90" total snowfall here and just a ridiculous stretch in late January before the blizzard in terms of cold and snow cover. Here are the stats in the form high, low, snowfall, snow cover:

Any time anybody mentions '60-'61, I am forced to remind them that it was half a winter.

[Chris L]

What he said. It's been an awesome run, with the record snowsof 2009-10 to the record heat of 2010, and back to record snows again this winter. I'm sure this 2 year period is rivaling if not beating what some experienced back in 1960 between the hurricane hit and the extreme winter in our area.

I wanted to make a run at 95-96, but it doesn't look like that'll happen, until we have a 25"+ March (I guess it's possible, December had 25").

Oh, Tom, I think March will be a heck of a month, cutoff season begins, IF we get a block in place.....

That 25+ will be easy to get with a bombing cutoff low.

[A-L-E-X]

Oh, Tom, I think March will be a heck of a month, cutoff season begins, IF we get a block in place.....

That 25+ will be easy to get with a bombing cutoff low.

March 1956, 58, 60, 67.....

[Chris L]

March 1956, 58, 60, 67.....

No, my favorite month.... 1914.

[Guest Pamela]

Any time anybody mentions '60-'61, I am forced to remind them that it was half a winter.

Warmth arrived on 9 February 1961 and that's all she wrote...

[Guest Pamela]

No, my favorite month.... 1914.

March 1888 is the one you really want to re-live....

[A-L-E-X]

Chris I thought your favorite month was March 1843..... although I suppose March 1888 could give it a run lol. Not to mention March 1893.

[nzucker]

Any time anybody mentions '60-'61, I am forced to remind them that it was half a winter.

But this might end up being half a winter as well....we had no snow for most of December with dry cold dominating, January was epic, and now February looks as if it will suck...I've only recorded 2" this month, and that isn't likely to change soon with the regime we're heading into. Unless we get back to the blocking pattern with a couple of Nor'easters in late February and March, Winter 10-11 will also be half a winter We can't rate the winter until it's over, though even a miserable torch from now through April wouldn't reduce it to less than a B/B+ in my mind.

Warmth arrived on 9 February 1961 and that's all she wrote...

What happened in 60-61 shows what's possible in terms of snowfall amounts for NYC metro, especially the NW suburbs. We had 90" here, and most of that fell from mid-December through early February. Just imagine if that pattern had prevailed for the rest of the winter; we probably would have seen upwards of 120". One of these years, we will break 100" with the perfect pattern, it's just bound to happen.

[A-L-E-X]

March 1888 is the one you really want to re-live....

William, what's the link for NYC snowfall climatology? There's a year in there in the late 1800s when NYC got 30 + inches in March, I just cant remember the year.

[Chris L]

Chris I thought your favorite month was March 1843..... although I suppose March 1888 could give it a run lol. Not to mention March 1893.

1843 for its EXTREME temp contrasts.

But, March 1914 is absurd when it comes to sfc low pressure right at the BM.... 952 mb.

[Chris L]

William, what's the link for NYC snowfall climatology? There's a year in there in the late 1800s when NYC got 30 + inches in March, I just cant remember the year.

1896.

[Guest Pamela]

William, what's the link for NYC snowfall climatology? There's a year in there in the late 1800s when NYC got 30 + inches in March, I just cant remember the year.

I see you got your answer. This page will answer many of your questions:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate_cms.html#Almanacs

[A-L-E-X]

1896.

Wow, August 1896 had a 10 day 90+ streak also.

[Guest Pamela]

But this might end up being half a winter as well....we had no snow for most of December with dry cold dominating, January was epic, and now February looks as if it will suck...I've only recorded 2" this month, and that isn't likely to change soon with the regime we're heading into. Unless we get back to the blocking pattern with a couple of Nor'easters in late February and March, Winter 10-11 will also be half a winter We can't rate the winter until it's over, though even a miserable torch from now through April wouldn't reduce it to less than a B/B+ in my mind.

What happened in 60-61 shows what's possible in terms of snowfall amounts for NYC metro, especially the NW suburbs. We had 90" here, and most of that fell from mid-December through early February. Just imagine if that pattern had prevailed for the rest of the winter; we probably would have seen upwards of 120". One of these years, we will break 100" with the perfect pattern, it's just bound to happen.

Your sig indicates you've had 57" of snow to date and there has been persistent snow cover. Normal for the season is in the neighborhood of 40"...so even if not another flake falls...it has to be deemed a very good winter.

I read many posts "if" this had happened or "but" for that bad luck. This happens *every* winter. It is part of the climatic regime and is to be expected...and it doesn't just happen here...it happens *everywhere*. Thus I'd say that the highest seasonal total at a location is likely fairly close to its upper limit...especially if the climate record exceeds 75 years. Note that if we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of the years prior to the Civil War, upward adjustments for snowfall maximums would become likely.

[Analog96]

March 1888 is the one you really want to re-live....

Impossible to tell, because it's well over 100 years ago, but I think NYC's snow amount from that storm was underestimated based on the pictures.

[Analog96]

Your sig indicates you've had 57" of snow to date and there has been persistent snow cover. Normal for the season is in the neighborhood of 40"...so even if not another flake falls...it has to be deemed a very good winter.

I read many posts "if" this had happened or "but" for that bad luck. This happens *every* winter. It is part of the climatic regime and is to be expected...and it doesn't just happen here...it happens *everywhere*. Thus I'd say that the highest seasonal total at a location is likely fairly close to its upper limit...especially if the climate record exceeds 75 years. Note that if we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of the years prior to the Civil War, upward adjustments for snowfall maximums would become likely.

If this winter "ended" now without a flake more falling, I would still like 1995-96 better because of its longevity.

[Guest Pamela]

Impossible to tell, because it's well over 100 years ago, but I think NYC's snow amount from that storm was underestimated based on the pictures.

I was referring to the month in general... (of course featuring the blizzard) ...but also the coldest March ever recorded at Central Park.

[Guest Pamela]

If this winter "ended" now without a flake more falling, I would still like 1995-96 better because of its longevity.

I would as well. Thus my use of the modifiers "very good".

[jm1220]

If this winter "ended" now without a flake more falling, I would still like 1995-96 better because of its longevity.

I doubt that the winter is completely over by 2/10. Late Feb and March usually present another threat or two in Nina winters. If I were to guess, 65-70" is a good estimate for what Central Park gets this winter. Maybe another minor and moderate-significant storm will do it.

By that time though, what snow we have will largely be gone outside of large grey piles (pretty much what I'm down to here on the scorched south shore). The warmup coming next week looks like it means business. Honestly though I'd rather have that than cold and no snow.

[A-L-E-X]

Your sig indicates you've had 57" of snow to date and there has been persistent snow cover. Normal for the season is in the neighborhood of 40"...so even if not another flake falls...it has to be deemed a very good winter.

I read many posts "if" this had happened or "but" for that bad luck. This happens *every* winter. It is part of the climatic regime and is to be expected...and it doesn't just happen here...it happens *everywhere*. Thus I'd say that the highest seasonal total at a location is likely fairly close to its upper limit...especially if the climate record exceeds 75 years. Note that if we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of the years prior to the Civil War, upward adjustments for snowfall maximums would become likely.

Yes indeed-- this is why the 100 inches max from the 1800s is probably the limit.

[A-L-E-X]

But this might end up being half a winter as well....we had no snow for most of December with dry cold dominating, January was epic, and now February looks as if it will suck...I've only recorded 2" this month, and that isn't likely to change soon with the regime we're heading into. Unless we get back to the blocking pattern with a couple of Nor'easters in late February and March, Winter 10-11 will also be half a winter We can't rate the winter until it's over, though even a miserable torch from now through April wouldn't reduce it to less than a B/B+ in my mind.

What happened in 60-61 shows what's possible in terms of snowfall amounts for NYC metro, especially the NW suburbs. We had 90" here, and most of that fell from mid-December through early February. Just imagine if that pattern had prevailed for the rest of the winter; we probably would have seen upwards of 120". One of these years, we will break 100" with the perfect pattern, it's just bound to happen.

Snow Wizard is dancing on our snow graves haha (see main forum.) He deserves his snow too but sometimes (especially back in the 80s and early 90s) I wished we had the technology to fry the Pacific Ocean.... no more ENSO no more problems.

[nzucker]

Your sig indicates you've had 57" of snow to date and there has been persistent snow cover. Normal for the season is in the neighborhood of 40"...so even if not another flake falls...it has to be deemed a very good winter.

I read many posts "if" this had happened or "but" for that bad luck. This happens *every* winter. It is part of the climatic regime and is to be expected...and it doesn't just happen here...it happens *everywhere*. Thus I'd say that the highest seasonal total at a location is likely fairly close to its upper limit...especially if the climate record exceeds 75 years. Note that if we are in fact moving into a colder period reminiscent of the years prior to the Civil War, upward adjustments for snowfall maximums would become likely.

I never said otherwise...the lowest grade I could give this winter is a B, which is good. We're already well above average in snowfall, we've had three storms over a foot, and below normal temperatures. I've never seen such long duration snow cover in Westchester, although 47-48 and 60-61 will probably finish on top of this winter in that department. However, the persistent snow cover is particularly impressive given today's urban heat island; we had nine consecutive nights in the single digits in January 1961 to firm up the snowpack, numbers we just don't see today. So, right now I'd say we're around an A- for the winter...I'd go higher for NJ and LI which have seen jackpot amounts; I haven't had a storm bigger than 14.5" here, which is a solid MECS but certainly nothing of the historical nature we saw in the Snowicane last season. We're missing the monster storm here in Westchester, but I'm hoping late February/March can deliver a truly epic snowfall for the areas NW of NYC.

Sure, there's always bad luck compared to what we see on models, etc. But say we did remain in a great pattern the entire winter; we've come close in years like 47-48, 60-61, and 95-96. If we can get the area into the 75-90" range using only 50% or 75% of a winter, that means that one day we will see a winter where all the chips fall into place and we get over 100". Given we're headed into a Dalton-like solar minimum and -PDO regime, I'd say that winter might come in the next 30 years, though we could wait 1000 years to get to the century mark...who knows? But if we had a -NAO/-AO/-EPO for the duration of a season, some of the region (especially the elevated northern suburbs) would eclipse 100" easily. I hope I get to see that day.

If this winter "ended" now without a flake more falling, I would still like 1995-96 better because of its longevity.

It's a close call....the massive torch after the January 1996 blizzard really reduced the value of that storm in my mind. On the other hand, we haven't seen a widespread historic I-95 storm like January 1996 in Winter 10-11. I had about 24" in my backyard whereas this year's biggest snowfall is 14.5". There's just something about a storm of that magnitude that elevates a winter to a magical level, just seeing the storm that buries cars and mailboxes, disrupts life for days and days, etc. We certainly haven't seen that here in Dobbs Ferry this season, YET. Also, the great thing about the '96 Blizzard was how it made news for days...apart from March 1993, it was THE snowfall event for the East. Nearly 2 feet from DC-Boston, basically a carbon copy of February '83 but longer duration.