River Card Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS and JB have been touting the upcoming pattern change so I thought I would start the thread. -PNA and a non -NAO suggests a solid warm up is in store unless the -NAO were to take a nose dive. Be intersting to see how warm temps get but it certainly looks like a solid bet at least some middle 40's likely for ORD to MKE and on to DTW with a 50 degree temp not out of the question. Looks like a few days will feature some howling SW winds if the GFS were to be believed. Guess the real concern is a rapid thaw or a period of widespread heavy rain on top of frozen soils, that could be scary. Be interesting how warm it get's, but with humid dewpoints and likely fog as the snow melts, could spell a rapid demise to the deep snowpacks being experienced right now. Me I'm ready for a thaw, actually had a blast with the snow and the kids but I'm ready to get out and see what damage the rabbits have done to my yard. It's not looking pretty for my hollies that's for sure. By no means does this suggest winter's over, perhaps the back is broken but reading Skilling's blog today suggests winters with this much snow to date have gone on to produce about 13 more inches. No reason not to think it won't happen this year. La Nina springs are very fickle to say the least. Let's hope for an early spring but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 title of this thread is a little weird considering this is the c/w forum. But I agree that a warm up of some sorts is likely. 12z EURO is an example of unmitigated warmth. Huge GOA trough, another big trough over southern Greenland, and a flood of Pacific air from coast to coast. Some 12z GFS ensemble members show a more robust -NAO, and thus mitigate the warmth, especially the further north and east you go. I guess the one positive is that even if the EURO verifies, it doesn't look like any heavy rainfall events will be accompanying the warmth and associated snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I guess the one positive is that even if the EURO verifies, it doesn't look like any heavy rainfall events will be accompanying the warmth and associated snow melt. The tears of the snowgeese will be enough to push streams and rivers over their banks. Seriously, the thaw is probably a high confidence event. GFS ensemble mean 500 mb height anomalies at 360 hours: Objective analogs rolled forward 4 days to be centered on the same date: Composite 500 mb height anomalies based on forecast teleconnection indices during the February 15-28(9) timeframe when ENSO R3.4 anomalies were -0.5 or below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ill take the 12z gfs warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The tears of the snowgeese will be enough to push streams and rivers over their banks. Seriously, the thaw is probably a high confidence event. GFS ensemble mean 500 mb height anomalies at 360 hours: Objective analogs rolled forward 4 days to be centered on the same date: Composite 500 mb height anomalies based on forecast teleconnection indices during the February 15-28(9) timeframe when ENSO R3.4 anomalies were -0.5 or below: Don, has the talk about possible severe late winter high latitude blocking evaporated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I endorse this message... GFS has been showing warmth for a while now... Weather is most boring when it never changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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