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This event Monday night into Tuesday...


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This question has been bugging me for a couple of days now, and the potentail impacts would be to see more snow across the Twin Forks area, Cape Cod, etc. for early Tuesday morning -- with such a strong jet max at 3H across the Mid-Atlantic, decent frontogenetical forcing (though not optimal with the 850 flow fairly parallel to the front) and height falls associated with the approaching shortwave trough would you expect a quicker low-level response, deeper storm, and track a little closer to the coast? I realize how transient the vort max is and I already highlighted the deficiencies in the mid-levels with regard to initial strength of the baroclinic zone... but still, I'm irked by this... anyone else?

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I should also point out that over the past couple of days the ECMWF and GGEM have both been more insistent on popping the coastal low sooner (even inland) when compared to the American models... though the NAM/GFS appear to be catching on somewhat. Has anyone else also noticed how the GGEM has performed this season and how it and the Euro have occasionally had differing solutions from the NAM/GFS "ensemble"?

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