Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Just radar watching, and it is far from a done deal Metro Houston gets much of anything. Clear skies as sunup, gave me hope for max insolation as the Sun rose as a big orange ball just North of the Eastern horizon, but the low clouds have appeared like ants at a picnic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Oh good, it isn't my fault for the dry frontal passage locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Can my lawn be spared after all? 50/50, I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Can my lawn be spared after all? 50/50, I say. Glass 1/32nd full, I think we could get two or three one hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 and we get another goose egg in the rainfall column. obviously nada for svr wx too. breeze making it feel pretty darn chilly out now. was gusting to near 40 a couple hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Only had a trace of rain yesterday, but woke up to a cool 39F this morning. Next chance of any rain may not happen until the weekend/early next week, if then. The drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This looks like a good location for a wind farm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This looks like a good location for a wind farm to me. 7000' in elevation helps with the winds, of course. Loys of wind farms already, like around beautiful and scenic McCamey, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 we're exceptional! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 HPC in their Final Update today sums it up: UNFORTUNATELY...FOR PORTIONS OF TX/OK THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY...CONVECTION AFFECTING THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND NOT DROP SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Well, as much as we want the drought to end, even for our North Texas friends, lets appreciate that SPC has cleared by hundreds of miles the area near Texas Motor Speedway for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 we're exceptional! woooo! Go TEXAS!! Seriously, we only got a little more than a trace the other day and I was still SOOO happy to get that... we had an interesting discussion tonight at the Volunteer Firefighter's Association Meeting. Lots of public education and tactical/logistical preparation for the upcoming fire season. I'm just amazed we've been so quiet so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Now I'm confused as to which thread to post in! I had always posted in the Rocky Mountains thread (since I can see them from my window) but now you're listing NM here. Decisions. Anyway, wind wind wind wind wind wind wind wind wind. 30 mph steady here but almost double that on the other side of the mountains and we're getting some gusts approaching 50. Gotta love NM spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 another windy day back in c-stat. winds gusting to 40 as we speak. outside shot at rain tonight? 12z NAM says no for B/CS but points west and north fare better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Pathetic... URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... .A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Further S in the Slight Risk Area, the dry line begins to purculate… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 So far, cells NW of DFW trying but failing. Dry and windy, fires breaking out already. Parking at NASCAR was a dustbowl... http://www.foxnews.c...ldfire-expands/ ETA Graphic up for an MD 400 NC Texas, link broken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 East of the worst range fires, but in position to help the Metroplex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 So far, cells NW of DFW trying but failing. By fail, do you mean from zero to a large line with a severe warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 By fail, do you mean from zero to a large line with a severe warning? Oh, wise guy, eh? At the time I posted, little cells were going, and dying. It was a commentary, not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 947 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT * AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ANNETTA...ANNETTA NORTH...ANNETTA SOUTH AND HUDSON OAKS AROUND 1000 PM CDT... WILLOW PARK AND ALEDO AROUND 1005 PM CDT... SANCTUARY AROUND 1020 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 947 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT * Had a nice hook when it was warned. Erath County cell getting that look now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I hope they are wrong, but the 21Z SREFs are pretty unanimously dry for HOU area. As is the 0Z NAM. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture But as a sign of optimism, as a naturally glass half full guy, the Granger radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Tor Warn snipped because the formatting gets screwed up now: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX1110 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY... AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRADY LAKE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRADY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 i'm slightly amused that i had reasoned i was flying home at the right time to finally catch some severe weather, and instead we swing and miss up here and c-stat turns out to maybe be under the gun tonight. go figure. if the region winds up getting a healthy rain tonight, i'm willing to be bribed to leave the state more often. all kidding/whining aside, it's a heckuva line. no tor warnings now, but that's a healthy hailer up in mills co. and 1km EHI out ahead of the southern end is sitting upwards of 6 or 7 per SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Two at once: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 100 AM CDT * AT 1222 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF LOYAL VALLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ----------- ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY... AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CRANFILLS GAP AROUND 1245 AM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Looks like the SREFs and the NAM had something figured out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 E-mail from Jeff: One of the worst wildfire days in Texas history occurred yesterday. Drought conditions across SE TX deepen into the “exceptional” category or the worst category on the US drought index scale. Current drought is the second worst since the late 1800’s with the 1950’s multi year drought being the worst on record. Red Flag Fire Warning issued for all of SE TX for today. Upper level trough which brought strong tornadoes to the upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday brought very strong winds across Texas this weekend. The strong winds along with very low surface RH and bone dry vegetation led to one of the worst wildfire outbreaks the state has ever experienced. Fires already burning over west TX from last week exploded on Sunday as surface winds of 35-55mph resulted in rapid forward fire growth. In Potter County alone an ongoing fire went from 1,000 to 65,000+ acres in a few hours on Sunday afternoon. The Midland County fire which was also burning prior to yesterday expanded to 16,500 acres and burned 34 homes. In Presidio County the Marfa Fire burned an unknown number of acres and 20-30 homes. In the last 7 days, 200 wildfires have burned 187, 113 acres across the state of Texas. 25 states are currently supplying resources to the state of Texas including both ground and air support to attempt to contain ongoing fires. Cool front will move across the region this morning ushering in a very dry and windy air mass. Critical fire weather concerns will be met at many locations today leading to potential rapid and explosive wildfire growth. Very strong cap in place this morning has and will continue to prevent thunderstorms from developing and the lack of rain will only worsen the ongoing drought and fire weather. Afternoon RH is expected to fall to less than 20% west of I-45 and 20-30% east of I-45 and this combined with NW winds of 15-20mph and very dry surface fuels all support a high fire danger this afternoon and evening. Highest threat area will be in the Montgomery and Walker county areas where fires have been the last few days in the dense forest regions. The state of Texas and the Texas forest Service has equipment and manpower prepositioned in the region to quickly respond to any wildfire. Otherwise, little change from our dry and windy weather for this week. What appeared to be a decent shot at rainfall for this Thursday has slowly trended toward another dry frontal passage as strong aping will prevent anything from developing along the boundary over SE and S TX. Winds will be weakest on Tuesday for the first time in days and then swing back to the south and increase on Wednesday. Should see strong southerly flow Thursday as the next trough approaches from the west and passes well north. Wednesday/Thursday are looking to be dangerous fire days across the state and suspect a few very large and fast moving fires will develop. Drought Update: After another very dry week the drought index update last Friday pushed much of the area into an exceptional drought, indicating significant impacts from drought on vegetation and livestock. Since February 1st, Conroe has only received .97 of an inch of rainfall and at Huntsville only .49 of an inch. Below are the rainfall amounts and departures for the past six months from the National Weather Service.: LOCATION OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR TOTAL PERCENT OF NORMAL BELLVILLE 0.00 1.28 0.98 2.75 0.76 1.14 6.91 35.7 NORMALS 3.70 3.76 3.16 3.33 2.48 2.92 19.35 DEPARTURE -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72 -1.78 -12.44 BRENHAM 0.03 1.42 1.28 4.15 0.81 0.80 8.49 40.3 NORMALS 4.48 4.17 3.29 3.41 2.78 2.93 21.06 DEPARTURE -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97 -2.13 -12.57 COL STATION T 0.90 0.81 2.99 0.61 0.69 6.00 31.3 NORMALS 4.22 3.18 3.23 3.32 2.38 2.84 19.17 DEPARTURE -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77 -2.15 -13.17 COLUMBUS 0.00 2.59 1.30 3.51 0.64 0.48 8.52 41.1 NORMALS 4.16 3.99 3.21 3.61 2.84 2.93 20.74 DEPARTURE -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20 -2.45 -12.22 CONROE T 5.33 1.49 4.04 0.61 0.35 11.82 49.3 NORMALS 4.70 4.79 4.37 4.21 2.97 2.94 23.98 DEPARTURE -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36 -2.59 -12.16 CROCKETT 0.85 3.43 1.12 5.29 0.70 0.35 11.74 51.7 NORMALS 4.22 3.93 4.02 4.00 3.10 3.45 22.72 DEPARTURE -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40 -3.10 -10.98 DANEVANG 0.00 2.40 4.28 3.62 0.37 0.05 10.72 53.5 NORMALS 4.56 3.68 3.08 3.23 2.67 2.83 20.05 DEPARTURE -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30 -2.78 -9.33 GALVESTON 1.37 6.90 2.13 3.86 0.67 2.70 17.63 87.7 NORMALS 3.49 3.64 3.53 4.08 2.61 2.76 20.11 DEPARTURE -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94 -0.06 -2.48 FREEPORT 0.03 3.86 1.75 4.21 0.84 0.81 11.50 51.2 NORMALS 4.52 4.42 3.51 4.29 2.84 2.87 22.45 DEPARTURE -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00 -2.06 -10.95 HOU HOBBY 0.07 4.75 5.84 4.10 0.34 0.78 15.88 66.1 NORMALS 5.26 4.54 3.78 4.25 3.01 3.19 24.03 DEPARTURE -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67 -2.41 -8.15 HOU IAH 0.02 2.71 3.04 5.05 0.69 0.78 12.24 54.6 NORMALS 4.50 4.19 3.69 3.68 2.98 3.36 22.40 DEPARTURE -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29 -2.58 -10.16 HUNTSVILLE 0.58 2.01 1.23 3.62 0.37 0.07 7.88 32.6 NORMALS 4.32 4.87 4.10 4.28 3.14 3.47 24.18 DEPARTURE -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77 -3.40 -16.30 LIVINGSTON 0.14 3.23 1.38 3.73 0.89 0.84 10.21 40.0 NORMALS 3.82 4.76 4.92 4.64 3.47 3.89 25.50 DEPARTURE -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58 -3.05 -15.29 KATY 0.00 2.01 1.73 4.76 0.05 1.24 8.55 41.4 NORMALS 4.00 4.41 3.67 3.34 2.59 2.64 20.65 DEPARTURE -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54 -1.40 -9.46 MADISONVILLE 0.21 1.05 1.09 2.89 0.81 0.95 7.29 33.3 NORMALS 4.41 4.01 3.62 3.81 2.83 3.24 21.92 DEPARTURE -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02 -2.29 -14.63 MATAGORDA 0.05 2.85 1.66 3.42 0.61 0.89 9.48 48.7 NORMALS 3.72 4.19 2.57 3.63 2.81 2.54 19.46 DEPARTURE -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20 -1.65 -9.98 NEW CANEY 0.00 6.18 2.71 6.42 0.96 0.90 17.17 67.9 NORMALS 4.57 4.83 4.40 4.22 3.31 3.96 25.29 DEPARTURE -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35 -3.06 -8.12 SOMERVILLE 0.03 0.88 0.80 2.77 0.41 0.08 4.97 25.9 NORMALS 4.33 3.63 3.14 2.93 2.53 2.62 19.18 DEPARTURE -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12 -2.54 -14.21 TOMBALL T 3.28 1.00 2.52 0.30 1.24 8.34 35.8 NORMALS 4.02 5.11 3.89 3.85 3.33 3.09 23.27 DEPARTURE -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03 -1.85 -14.93 WASH ST PARK 0.00 1.17 1.29 3.76 0.66 1.08 7.96 38.3 NORMALS 4.38 3.68 3.30 3.54 2.74 3.13 20.77 DEPARTURE -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08 -2.05 -12.81 There appears to be little relief in sight as the 7-14 days period continues to show a dry signal in the CPC outlooks and model data. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 For the 2nd week in a row we had a really nice early morning soaking up this way with tons of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Glass 10% full, my lawn could get a tenth of an inch from the narrow forced line on the front that can't quite break the cap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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