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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Just radar watching, and it is far from a done deal Metro Houston gets much of anything.

Clear skies as sunup, gave me hope for max insolation as the Sun rose as a big orange ball just North of the Eastern horizon, but the low clouds have appeared like ants at a picnic.

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Srain

Srain

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HPC in their Final Update today sums it up:

UNFORTUNATELY...FOR PORTIONS OF TX/OK THAT HAVE

BEEN QUITE DRY...CONVECTION AFFECTING THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE FAST

MOVING AND NOT DROP SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

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TXWXCHX

TXWXCHX

Posted
Posted

we're exceptional!

woooo! Go TEXAS!!

Seriously, we only got a little more than a trace the other day and I was still SOOO happy to get that... we had an interesting discussion tonight at the Volunteer Firefighter's Association Meeting. Lots of public education and tactical/logistical preparation for the upcoming fire season. I'm just amazed we've been so quiet so far...

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Msalgado

Msalgado

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Now I'm confused as to which thread to post in! I had always posted in the Rocky Mountains thread (since I can see them from my window) but now you're listing NM here.

Decisions.

Anyway, wind wind wind wind wind wind wind wind wind.

30 mph steady here but almost double that on the other side of the mountains and we're getting some gusts approaching 50.

Gotta love NM spring.

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Srain

Srain

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Pathetic...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY

MONDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO

PICK UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

Posted
Posted

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORT WORTH TX 947 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT *

AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANNETTA SOUTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ANNETTA...ANNETTA NORTH...ANNETTA SOUTH AND HUDSON OAKS AROUND 1000 PM CDT... WILLOW PARK AND ALEDO AROUND 1005 PM CDT... SANCTUARY AROUND 1020 PM CDT...

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORT WORTH TX 947 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT *

Had a nice hook when it was warned. Erath County cell getting that look now...

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

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Tor Warn snipped because the formatting gets screwed up now:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX1110 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY... AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRADY LAKE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRADY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

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msp

msp

Posted
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i'm slightly amused that i had reasoned i was flying home at the right time to finally catch some severe weather, and instead we swing and miss up here and c-stat turns out to maybe be under the gun tonight. go figure. if the region winds up getting a healthy rain tonight, i'm willing to be bribed to leave the state more often.

all kidding/whining aside, it's a heckuva line. no tor warnings now, but that's a healthy hailer up in mills co. and 1km EHI out ahead of the southern end is sitting upwards of 6 or 7 per SPC meso page.

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Witness Protection Program

Witness Protection Program

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Two at once:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 100 AM CDT * AT 1222 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF LOYAL VALLEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

-----------

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY... AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CRANFILLS GAP AROUND 1245 AM CDT...

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Srain

Srain

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E-mail from Jeff:

One of the worst wildfire days in Texas history occurred yesterday.

Drought conditions across SE TX deepen into the “exceptional” category or the worst category on the US drought index scale. Current drought is the second worst since the late 1800’s with the 1950’s multi year drought being the worst on record.  

Red Flag Fire Warning issued for all of SE TX for today.

Upper level trough which brought strong tornadoes to the upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday brought very strong winds across Texas this weekend. The strong winds along with very low surface RH and bone dry vegetation led to one of the worst wildfire outbreaks the state has ever experienced. Fires already burning over west TX from last week exploded on Sunday as surface winds of 35-55mph resulted in rapid forward fire growth. In Potter County alone an ongoing fire went from 1,000 to 65,000+ acres in a few hours on Sunday afternoon. The Midland County fire which was also burning prior to yesterday expanded to 16,500 acres and burned 34 homes. In Presidio County the Marfa Fire burned an unknown number of acres and 20-30 homes.  In the last 7 days, 200 wildfires have burned 187, 113 acres across the state of Texas. 25 states are currently supplying resources to the state of Texas including both ground and air support to attempt to contain ongoing fires.

Cool front will move across the region this morning ushering in a very dry and windy air mass. Critical fire weather concerns will be met at many locations today leading to potential rapid and explosive wildfire growth. Very strong cap in place this morning has and will continue to prevent thunderstorms from developing and the lack of rain will only worsen the ongoing drought and fire weather.  Afternoon RH is expected to fall to less than 20% west of I-45 and 20-30% east of I-45 and this combined with NW winds of 15-20mph and very dry surface fuels all support a high fire danger this afternoon and evening. Highest threat area will be in the Montgomery and Walker county areas where fires have been the last few days in the dense forest regions. The state of Texas and the Texas forest Service has equipment and manpower prepositioned in the region to quickly respond to any wildfire. 

Otherwise, little change from our dry and windy weather for this week. What appeared to be a decent shot at rainfall for this Thursday has slowly trended toward another dry frontal passage as strong aping will prevent anything from developing along the boundary over SE and S TX. Winds will be weakest on Tuesday for the first time in days and then swing back to the south and increase on Wednesday. Should see strong southerly flow Thursday as the next trough approaches from the west and passes well north. Wednesday/Thursday are looking to be dangerous fire days across the state and suspect a few very large and fast moving fires will develop. 

Drought Update:

After another very dry week the drought index update last Friday pushed much of the area into an exceptional drought, indicating significant impacts from drought on vegetation and livestock. Since February 1st, Conroe has only received .97 of an inch of rainfall and at Huntsville only .49 of an inch. Below are the rainfall amounts and departures for the past six months from the National Weather Service.: 


LOCATION      OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB    MAR    TOTAL  PERCENT
                                                          OF NORMAL

BELLVILLE     0.00  1.28  0.98  2.75  0.76   1.14    6.91  35.7
NORMALS       3.70  3.76  3.16  3.33  2.48   2.92   19.35
DEPARTURE    -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72  -1.78  -12.44

BRENHAM       0.03  1.42  1.28  4.15  0.81   0.80    8.49  40.3
NORMALS       4.48  4.17  3.29  3.41  2.78   2.93   21.06
DEPARTURE    -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97  -2.13  -12.57

COL STATION     T   0.90  0.81  2.99  0.61   0.69    6.00  31.3
NORMALS       4.22  3.18  3.23  3.32  2.38   2.84   19.17
DEPARTURE    -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77  -2.15  -13.17

COLUMBUS      0.00  2.59  1.30  3.51  0.64   0.48    8.52  41.1
NORMALS       4.16  3.99  3.21  3.61  2.84   2.93   20.74
DEPARTURE    -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20  -2.45  -12.22

CONROE          T   5.33  1.49  4.04  0.61   0.35   11.82  49.3
NORMALS       4.70  4.79  4.37  4.21  2.97   2.94   23.98
DEPARTURE    -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36  -2.59  -12.16

CROCKETT      0.85  3.43  1.12  5.29  0.70   0.35   11.74  51.7
NORMALS       4.22  3.93  4.02  4.00  3.10   3.45   22.72
DEPARTURE    -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40  -3.10  -10.98

DANEVANG      0.00  2.40  4.28  3.62  0.37   0.05   10.72  53.5
NORMALS       4.56  3.68  3.08  3.23  2.67   2.83   20.05
DEPARTURE    -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30  -2.78   -9.33

GALVESTON     1.37  6.90  2.13  3.86  0.67   2.70   17.63  87.7
NORMALS       3.49  3.64  3.53  4.08  2.61   2.76   20.11
DEPARTURE    -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94  -0.06   -2.48

FREEPORT      0.03  3.86  1.75  4.21  0.84   0.81   11.50  51.2
NORMALS       4.52  4.42  3.51  4.29  2.84   2.87   22.45
DEPARTURE    -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00  -2.06  -10.95

HOU HOBBY     0.07  4.75  5.84  4.10  0.34   0.78   15.88  66.1
NORMALS       5.26  4.54  3.78  4.25  3.01   3.19   24.03
DEPARTURE    -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67  -2.41   -8.15

HOU IAH       0.02  2.71  3.04  5.05  0.69   0.78   12.24  54.6
NORMALS       4.50  4.19  3.69  3.68  2.98   3.36   22.40
DEPARTURE    -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29  -2.58  -10.16

HUNTSVILLE    0.58  2.01  1.23  3.62  0.37   0.07    7.88  32.6
NORMALS       4.32  4.87  4.10  4.28  3.14   3.47   24.18
DEPARTURE    -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77  -3.40  -16.30

LIVINGSTON    0.14  3.23  1.38  3.73  0.89   0.84   10.21  40.0
NORMALS       3.82  4.76  4.92  4.64  3.47   3.89   25.50
DEPARTURE    -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58  -3.05  -15.29

KATY          0.00  2.01  1.73  4.76  0.05   1.24    8.55  41.4
NORMALS       4.00  4.41  3.67  3.34  2.59   2.64   20.65
DEPARTURE    -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54  -1.40   -9.46

MADISONVILLE  0.21  1.05  1.09  2.89  0.81   0.95    7.29  33.3
NORMALS       4.41  4.01  3.62  3.81  2.83   3.24   21.92
DEPARTURE    -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02  -2.29  -14.63

MATAGORDA     0.05  2.85  1.66  3.42  0.61   0.89    9.48  48.7
NORMALS       3.72  4.19  2.57  3.63  2.81   2.54   19.46
DEPARTURE    -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20  -1.65   -9.98

NEW CANEY     0.00  6.18  2.71  6.42  0.96   0.90   17.17  67.9
NORMALS       4.57  4.83  4.40  4.22  3.31   3.96   25.29
DEPARTURE    -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35  -3.06   -8.12

SOMERVILLE    0.03  0.88  0.80  2.77  0.41   0.08    4.97  25.9
NORMALS       4.33  3.63  3.14  2.93  2.53   2.62   19.18
DEPARTURE    -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12  -2.54  -14.21

TOMBALL         T   3.28  1.00  2.52  0.30   1.24    8.34  35.8
NORMALS       4.02  5.11  3.89  3.85  3.33   3.09   23.27
DEPARTURE    -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03  -1.85  -14.93

WASH ST PARK  0.00  1.17  1.29  3.76  0.66   1.08    7.96  38.3
NORMALS       4.38  3.68  3.30  3.54  2.74   3.13   20.77
DEPARTURE    -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08  -2.05  -12.81 
There appears to be little relief in sight as the 7-14 days period continues to show a dry signal in the CPC outlooks and model data. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen.

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