Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

[Srain]

The model are converging on a solution that looks very promising for rain/storm chances across the Lone Star State next week. Tuesday through Thursday looks to offer the best chance at some widespread precip. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather potential across the region. Something to watch in the days ahead.

[Srain]

The model are converging on a solution that looks very promising for rain/storm chances across the Lone Star State next week. Tuesday through Thursday looks to offer the best chance at some widespread precip. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe weather potential across the region. Something to watch in the days ahead.

[Ed Lizard]

Yah know, you move the cold air up just a little, so it tries to snow before the post-Equinox Sun rises, and that thread about a North Texas April Fools Day snow isn't that ridiculous.

It'd be gone half an hour after the precip stops, but I'm all about novelty.

A positive tilt trough and an offshore surface track doesn't do much to fire me up for any severe except maybe marginal hailers in SETX.

[Ed Lizard]

Bad news for fans of North Texas dry line watching (I have family in the Metroplex), judging by dewpoints and temps, the dryline is mixing through.

May be getting close to Paris, but they had an impressive jump in dewpoint just before lunch, so there is probably going to be some kind of triple point near/just North of the Red River.

DFW 12Z sounding didn't seem to show much of a cap at all that a little daytime heating couldn't fix, SHV has a little cap around 800 mb, but it isn't one of those forged steel death caps we seem to get down here.

SPC 1800Z RUC analysis shows a fair amount of CINH, more than I would have expected based on the morning soundings.

[Srain]

The GFS and Canadian continue to advertise a decent chance of rain/storms beginning Monday afternoon/evening with a dryline situated across W/W Central TX and continuing into Thursday across the Lone Star State. The ECMWF suggests a drier pattern, but all the guidance is hinting at a strong cold front mid next week. SPC is hinting a Slight Risk for severe storms as well for our general area in the medium range (Tuesday/Wednesday +/- a day) as well...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0344 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH AT

LEAST DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN

DISCREPANCIES EXIST REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES WHICH

LOWERS OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM

THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST

BY ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN

VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD

THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH

ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL REMAIN IN COOL

SECTOR...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER SUPPORTING THE

ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL

EXIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A

MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE AND SHEAR WILL BE

SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD

FRONT. PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE

INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

DAY 6-7...ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGE WITH

REGARD TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN STATES. GFS

IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...DEVELOPING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER

THE NERN GULF COASTAL REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TO A LESS

AMPLIFIED...WEAKER SOLUTION. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD

EVOLVE ACROSS FL DAY 6...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME

GIVEN THE DISPERSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

..DIAL.. 03/26/2011

[msp]

87/66

feels like the hottest day in months

a few cells popping now over hill country

[Srain]

87/66

feels like the hottest day in months

a few cells popping now over hill country

90 is the record for KCLL today. Close. The cool front should knock temps back for tomorrow. Hopefully you guys will get some of that rain in Central TX as the front drops slowly S and E.

[Ed Lizard]

I didn't get the impression the I-35 corridor, especially so far South, was expected to be much today.

[Ed Lizard]

The ADD site is giving me issues, that storm looks like all anvil on radar and I wanted to see satellite.

http://www.intellica...cation=ustx0057

Are we at the edge of a watch?

Intellicast has some kind of red shading on linked satellite, not on SPC, just checked. Quick Googling for a Texas centric visible.

[Srain]

The ADD site is giving me issues, that storm looks like all anvil on radar and I wanted to see satellite.

http://www.intellica...cation=ustx0057

Are we at the edge of a watch?

Intellicast has some kind of red shading on linked satellite, not on SPC, just checked. Quick Googling for a Texas centric visible.

ADD has been down since yesterday. No watch currently in TX.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

416 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXC031-209-453-262130-

/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110326T2130Z/

TRAVIS TX-BLANCO TX-HAYS TX-

416 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT

FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HAYS...EAST CENTRAL BLANCO AND EXTREME WEST

CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 412 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEDERNALES

FALLS STATE PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRIPPING SPRINGS...MOVING

EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS

OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

[Ed Lizard]

I like ADD, Best detail I can think of for visible imagery centered on Texas, and it updates about 4 times an hour. Intellicast isn't terrible.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0433 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262133Z - 262230Z

PARTS OF ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A

POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A COUPLE OF STRONGER

TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 20Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX /THE COUNTIES OF

BANDERA TO BLANCO AND TRAVIS/. SO FAR...HAIL PRODUCED BY THESE

STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWWD

FROM EXTREME SWRN AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...JUST WEST OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER DEEP

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NERN TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE CU

APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE

/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT

ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED

ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP

LAYER SHEAR...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND GIVEN

THAT THE FLOW IS VEERED IS BOTH LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL LOW

LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN

BECOME SUSTAINED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL

AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER LIMITATION FOR GREATER TSTM COVERAGE

IS THE APPARENT LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

..PETERS.. 03/26/2011

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

451 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ191>193-262230-

BASTROP-HAYS-TRAVIS-

451 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAYS...WESTERN BASTROP

AND CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEE CAVE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF

TANGLEWOOD FOREST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM

WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AUSTIN WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF

ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS

OF SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY AROUND 530 PM.

[msp]

90 is the record for KCLL today. Close. The cool front should knock temps back for tomorrow. Hopefully you guys will get some of that rain in Central TX as the front drops slowly S and E.

looks like 88F will be the highest hourly ob. maybe we got 89 or 90 intra-hour, but the record appears safe for now.

edit: just checked, we did manage 89F

[Ed Lizard]

On radar the boundary appears to be retreating, and I suspect the storms can't quite sustain away from the convergence. Cap, I'd guess.

Model generated sounding suggests CINH and weak surface forcing/no instability...

Someone on the severe thread was trying to educate me on the difference between CINH and a capping inversion. I can see the dewpoint spread and the high LFC, and I know that is why, but I don't understand all the hows of CINH.

[Srain]

HGX updated the HWO...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

546 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-272300-

BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-

SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-

546 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME BEING STRONG. THERE

IS A SMALL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA

STRETCHES NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FROM THIS EVENING

THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

[Ed Lizard]

Houston is the SWODY3 Slight area. Haven't seen that in a while. Haven't had a 50 knot plus wind (even a gust) since Ike at the house.

[Srain]

Houston is the SWODY3 Slight area. Haven't seen that in a while. Haven't had a 50 knot plus wind (even a gust) since Ike at the house.

[Ed Lizard]

Bit of a qualifier on not having had 50 knots since Ike. I do not have a home station. I have looked at LSRs and IAH and DWH obs and compared them to what I have seen, and ballpark, the worst thunderstorm since Ike has peaked ballpark 30 something knots. I may see something and call it 50 knots, and it might be closer to 45 knots. Or 55 knots. Its how the rain is coming and the angle, and especially how the trees are being blown.

On the local weather board, when storms come in, I sort of imply this by saying something like "Im guessing it was about 25 knots as it hit".

A modern unofficial Beaufort Scale. Its has been 4 or 5 years since I've seen hail bigger than peas, but I can do a little better comparing hail to coins or golfballs or tennis balls. Never actually seen anything bigger than quarters in my life. I'd probably over estimate if I saw a baseball and call it a softball if I couldn't pick it up and grip it.

[Ed Lizard]

Slight on the SWODY2 for SETX but 15% overall probs and text verbiage doesn't seem super enthused. I sort the cap would break just South of the North Belt around 3 pm yesterday, I really did.

[Ed Lizard]

New NAM, under a quarter over 85 hours. HOU don't miss by much, but we do generally miss.

New GFS only slightly better. New SWODY2 in 20 minutes, would not blow my socks off if SWODY2 Slight Risk shrinks and isn't over HOU area.

[Ed Lizard]

SWODY2 essentially unchanged. I didn't look at the SREFs or anything, but having a fairly decent portion of the 15% overall probability area be dry on both the main long and short range US models, well, I haven't looked at the SREFs.

Edit to add-

Now I need to Ask.com Craven-Brooks....

Edit to Add Numero Dos

Shout out to the Aggies, interweb search shows this...

http://atmo.tamu.edu...52/lab9_502.pdf

CAPE and 0-6 km shear. Maybe not so good around here, where the cap is more likely to prevent storms. m^3/s^3

Would seem something like a less tornado specific analog of EHI...

[msp]

thx for the aggie shoutout. pity i don't have time in my degree plan to get past ATMO 201. 352 would be the one i'm most interested in.

crappy day here at CLL. 55F with a bunch of mist. enough to wet things but nothing in the rain gauge. looks like we'll be lucky to pull in 0.25" over the next couple days.

[Srain]

Fingers crossed for some rain. I'll take my 1/4 to 3/4 inch and be happy in this drought...

[Ed Lizard]

I won't say no to half an inch either, it delays watering again until next weekend, but I have to wonder if December and January hadn't been so cold, and the NW Gulf been a couple of degrees warmer, would that have been the key in clouds breaking earlier so we could bust the cap.

New WRF likes areas just to our East this evening for more significant rains, but my house (1960 and Veterans area) appears on the edge of the quarter inch line, and the sounding has decent mid level instability. I doubt anything severe, but I'll accept thunder and lightning.

[Ed Lizard]

15Z RUC says we're only an hour away from showers, probably storms, forming first along the warm front. The 12Z NAM wasn't quite as quick.

[Ed Lizard]

Just East of Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised to see storms soon around LFT based on SPC analysis of CINH, CAPE and moisture convergence. Amateur eyeballing the skew-T, maybe just enough speed/directional shear in the fat part of the CAPE area (notice TT) for some hail.

82ºF in LFT...

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0218 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU

AND SRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291918Z - 292115Z

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS

PLATEAU REGION OF TX SUPPORTS INCREASING -- BUT STILL CONDITIONAL --

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOT OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY

SKY NEAR AND N OF DRT /DEL RIO TX/...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW INTO

THE 70S TO 80S. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT IN THIS REGION...ON WRN

FRINGE OF A WAVY FRONT DRAPING SEWD INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THEN

EWD ACROSS S TX AND INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

WHILE CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...LARGE-SCALE

ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS

NRN MEXICO AND INTO W TX COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ACT TO

WEAKEN THE CAP WITH TIME. FIRST HINTS OF DEEPER CU/CB DEVELOPMENT

ARE EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO SW OF DRT -- EVIDENCE OF

THE INCREASING ASCENT...AND IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR

DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE NEWD INTO TX WITH TIME.

WHILE STILL CONDITIONAL UPON CAP EROSION/STORM DEVELOPMENT... SEVERE

THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE

SUBSEQUENT TO STORM INITIATION...AS 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS

SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CELLS. WHILE TIMING

REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR SIGNS OF

MORE IMMINENT DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2011

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[Ed Lizard]

Might be my imagination, not really apparent on velocity on NWS radar site, but that storm in Coahuila may have a hook.

Edit to remove hotlink to no precip radar.

[msp]

finally warmed up today as the sun peeked out. 76/64 now with a wind now out of the SE. just looks like junk down toward I-10.

on a side note, anyone using the free feed for level2 data know why the austin radar is only showing level3 data?