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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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k***

k***

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro has a line of showers/storms along that front that look to just clip or just miss HOU. 9 days out.

Sadly, looks like the surface high is moving more South than East that last 24 hours. I was hoping for a glancing blow.

But, again, 9 days out.

Pathetic

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

GFS has a cold front early/mid week, but even post frontal, we stay on the happy side of the 850 mb 10ºC line and the winds quickly go Easterly.

Not just an aversion to the brutal Winter we've had, I want the near shore waters to warm up so when we get the right severe weather setup, warm air from the Southern Gulf doesn't form low clouds and fog under the capping inversion and prevent enough heating to break the inversion.

Dewpoint at the buoy off GLS is 56ºF, water temp is 54ºF, we have work to do if we want an interesting April and May.

post-138-0-16647200-1297952013.gif

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Srain

Srain

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Something to keep an eye on is a potent Spring like storm later next week into the weekend. The SPC is already mentioning severe weather chances in the extended period for next Wednesday/Thursday...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0354 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE...AND APPARENTLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP

BEGINNING AROUND TUE/D4 AS THE MODELS TRY TO HANDLE AN UPPER

TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CA AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE

TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK SWD...OR RETROGRADE...ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC

AND WRN CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD WSWLY FLOW REGIME

WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER

TROUGH/LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE/D4. BEHIND THIS NE

TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS

THE ERN STATES WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFFSHORE.

BY WED/D5...THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN STATES...AND A

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX WITH LOWER

TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH TX BY WED AFTERNOON.

FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE

SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA

COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE

AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS

WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS

EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO

THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH

SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A

MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN

PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED/D5 INTO THU/D6 FROM

THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW

TO INTRODUCE ANY OUTLOOK AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/19/2011

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Srain

Srain

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Long range guidance is hinting a robust storm next Saturday across TX. The Euro is a bit S of the other globals and there has been some flip flopping of late, but hopefully a daytime FROPA and just perhaps a bit less capping we can get some rainfall.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

99F yesterday. Drought was worsened by the deep freeze earlier this month with full foliage trees . Also, Alex and well above normal precipitation for the summer 2010, really gave a lushy feeling to the fields and mountains, which are now brown and dry... perfect tinder material.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Fingers and toes crossed for some rain chances on Saturday...

Slight relief, but won't do much for the drought in the long term. There have been 52 reported fires here in the metro area in the last 2 days fed by dry vegetation.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

so that was winter?

meh.

65F and cloudy. what's it going to take to get a tstorm here?

I have not seen a severe criteria t-storm in person in at least 2 1/2 years.

That dark blue area along the coast exists not just to spoil Spring Break, but to cause low clouds and fog to form as high dewpoint air comes from the Southern Gulf. Those low clouds get trapped under the inversion, and ensure not enough insolation to get enough heating to break the inversion. Everybody downwind of the Mexican highlands get capped to some degree, but if you can get six good hours of near full Sun, if all is otherwise right in the world, it'll probably break. Except the HGX CWA, the most accursed severe weather (or lack thereof) area in the world.

2011061atsst.png

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