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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A few lucky folks have actually saw some rainfall over the holiday weekend with Saturday being the most widespread coverage.

Upper ridge which has held firm for months has given just enough ground to allow moisture and disturbances to slide down its SE face and into SE TX from LA over the past few days. Yesterday saw a fair amount of dry air move into the region from the east, while today shows extensive upstream moisture over LA and a well defined disturbance over NC LA moving SSW. Combination of incoming very moist air mass and the upper level disturbance should result in scattered thunderstorms develop after about 300pm (once trigger temperatures in the mid 90’s) are reached from roughly Lake Charles to Lufkin. Mid level flow is out of the NE and ENE so storms should move steadily SW to WSW into SE TX by late afternoon/early evening. Not sure how far SW storms will make it, but areas along and E of I-45 stand the best shot. Should decent outflow boundaries establish then storms could drive deep into the region after dark…and this may be what happens as there is decent upper level support and a similar setup to last night over LA where storms went until about 200am.

Similar setup on Wednesday so expect another round of late afternoon thunderstorms with about 30-40% coverage. Air mass today and Wednesday will have a pronounced near surface dry layer supporting strong winds as rain shafts fall toward the surface and initially evaporate. Outflow winds of 40-55mph will be possible near the stronger storms.

Upper ridge will begin to build back eastward on Thursday, but never really builds directly overhead. Feel best rain chances will move southward and focus along the daily seabreeze front…will carry 20% each afternoon mainly south of I-10 Thursday-Saturday.

Rain chances the next few days will offer little help to the ongoing drought as only a few locations will see wetting rains. Rainfall departures are now nearly 20.00 inches at nearly all climate sites and an astounding 26.37 inches at Tomball since October of 2010.

Late weekend/Early Next Week:

Upper ridge migrates toward the OH valley allowing a deep southeasterly flow to develop over the region. GFS and ECMWF both show significant moisture from the current central Caribbean tropical wave advecting toward the TX coast by Sunday. PWS should rapidly rise toward 2.0 inches and possibly higher suggesting an active seabreeze early in the day (prior to noon). The models have been trying to spin up an upper level feature with this moisture surge in the form of an upper level low and position it along the lower TX coast early next week, which would be favorable for continued moist feed and moderate to high rain chances. This may be a decent shot at more widespread rains over this parched landscape.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted
WUUS54 KHGX 062013

SVRHGX

TXC039-157-201-062100-

/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0089.110706T2013Z-110706T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

313 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 306 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRESNO...AND MOVING WEST AT

10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...ROSENBERG...

RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE...PEARLAND...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...

MEADOWS...MANVEL...FIRST COLONY AND BROOKSIDE VILLAGE.

post-138-0-37879800-1309983851.png

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

The 00Z WRF and NAM suggest continued scattered showers/storms for the next few days. A deeper surge of tropical moisture looks poised to for the weekend.

well-timed

i land at c-stat tomorrow evening. a few showers might help keep temps down for the weekend in SAT/hill country. hiking with upper-90s is no fun.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Raw numbers from the 06z GFS for khou and kiah :yikes:.

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.22 " and Convective: 0.21 "

No widespread rain with big -AO, W coast trough pattern and ridging for the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS... only hope is afternoon seabreeze convection...but that won't be enough. Then after 2 weeks, the MJO will move into unfavorable phases.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
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Raw numbers from the 06z GFS for khou and kiah :yikes:.

No widespread rain with big -AO, W coast trough pattern and ridging for the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS... only hope is afternoon seabreeze convection...but that won't be enough. Then after 2 weeks, the MJO will move into unfavorable phases.

If the ensembles are right, we're not in a terrible position for mid-latitude disturbances dropping down into Texas at the edge of the ridge. Not really the season for it, but I was always a fan of NW flow aloft events, storms form in the high country of Colorado and drop into Texas well after dark sustained by the nocturnal LLJ, sometimes arriving near dawn.

Or Northeast flow aloft, which hasn't been terrible lately. Of course, maybe its past season because 500 mb winds are in the 10 knot range...

post-138-0-20795700-1310055483.gif

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Srain

Srain

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While Ed discounts the FIM, more reliable guidance continue to advertise generally disturbed weather across Central America and Southern Mexico. The monsoonal trough will liklely begin lifting N by mid week setting the stage for an active period with a favorable MJO pulse...

gfs.gif

post-32-0-45373100-1310303082.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

In sensible weather, that upper low was rather lame.

000

FXUS64 KHGX 101610

AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TUTT LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND MOVING

QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN TERMS OF ITS ABILITY

TO GENERATE RAINFALL OVER SE TX...THE LOW HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING

TO SAY THE LEAST. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES OVER SE

TX THIS AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES OVER THE SW

ZONES. EAST OF THE CWA THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY FROM

YESTERDAY (PWS DOWN TO 1.4 INCHES). 4KM NMM-WRF SHOWS ONLY

ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN.

HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS BUT WILL KEEP 30S

GOING FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ARE RUNNING AS WARM OR A LITTLE

WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A

BIT BOTH FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
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4KM NMM-WRF or not, seems like the cu field is quite healthy outside today.

Anyhoo, as alluded to before by Jorge, somehow Laredo manages to combine 100ºF air temps and upper 60s dews together like no place else in Texas. Wink or Presidio or someplace may got hotter, but not with dewpoints like that.

Currently 102ºF/66ºF, or for our Canadian readers, 39º/19º, and they'll warm for 2 or 3 more hours.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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4KM NMM-WRF or not, seems like the cu field is quite healthy outside today.

I laugh at you, puny 4 km WRF! Laugh!!!

Anyhoo, as alluded to before by Jorge, somehow Laredo manages to combine 100ºF air temps and upper 60s dews together like no place else in Texas. Wink or Presidio or someplace may got hotter, but not with dewpoints like that.

Currently 102ºF/66ºF, or for our Canadian readers, 39º/19º, and they'll warm for 2 or 3 more hours.

post-138-0-06885600-1310328988.png

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Srain

Srain

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The bad news/good news from the morning HPC update:

ANY RECORD HIGHS SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1980

SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THREATENED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS

SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY...

DISTURBANCES IN INCREASINGLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE BASE OF

THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

The LCH sounding is very similar, but with mostly Southerly winds, I figured we'd be more like CRP. Both have PWs over 2 inches. Which is a good thing.

For this time of the year, a 6.8ºC/Kg lapse rate isn't mondo shabby, and indicates subsidence/warming may not be a huge negative.

I am glass 40% full optimistic.

CRP.gif

Now, this link http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif really slows down the page as a hotlink. It suggests HOU may have slightly lower PW than either CRP or LCH, a tad under 5 cm, or under 2 inches, but the happier air does look to be approaching. I'd think we'd be in the full 5 cm plus PW before peak heating.

40% glass full optimism watch in effect.

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msp

msp

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had a t-storm yesterday ruin the afternoon at six flags fiesta texas, but the precip was a welcome relief. back in c-stat now and hoping for a repeat today given that the brazos valley picked up little to none yesterday.

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