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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 2

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

GFS says no more than a couple inches near BRO.

new thread in here for local tex/mex arlene rainfall and such chit chat?

meanwhile, CLL supposed to top 100F for the next several days. only 94F now; don't see them making it today. i'll take the GFS at 240hr please.

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Srain

Srain

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

842 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TXZ248>257-291000-

ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-

INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...

SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...

MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...

PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA

842 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO BRING HEAVY

RAIN TO PORTIONS OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS TROPICAL

STORM ARLENE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICAN

COAST. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE RIO

GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS WITH ADDITIONAL

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS MOST AREAS OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE STORM

APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF RIO

GRANDE RIVER. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY COULD TOTAL 1 TO 3

WITH AREAS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS

CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH

THE CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING. IN ANY CASE...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL

POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND AS MUCH AS 4

INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS

AND ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE STORM TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WINDS ARE NOT

EXPECTED TO BEAR ANY IMPACT. TROPICAL EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 MPH

WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE AND BEACH WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE

COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH

THURSDAY. WINDS OFFSHORE TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER

GUSTS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWELLS TO INCREASE

ABOVE 8 FEET WEDNESDAY WITH THE SWELL PERIOD NEARING 10 SECONDS.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL TROPICAL STORM ARLENE

MOVES INLAND SOME TIME THURSDAY. ALONG THE BEACHES RIP CURRENT

RISK HAS BEEN ELEVATED TO HIGH AND WILL REMAIN HIGH POSSIBLY

THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH

SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON

HOW MUCH ARLENE STRENGTHENS.

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Srain

Srain

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Keep an eye on the tropical wave located near 50W. This is the feature that the models are suggesting may be our next tropical trouble maker. It does develop near the time another Kelvin wave/MJO pulse heads into the Western Basin and does raise an eyebrow...

TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 13N47W TO 7N48W

MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW

CLEAR CUT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE

IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT

IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN

46W-50W...AND FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

latest72hrs.gif

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

Coastal Flood Watch issued from Baffin Bay to Brownsville. If someone would like to create an Arlene chit chat thread, others may want to join in, or we can continue that here.;)

i'll do it. it may not be busy, but at least we can get in the habit of having local tropical system discos in threads. if it siphons off too much from the main thread, we'll know not to do it next time.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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I think I have more faith in a GFS weak cold front just inside the resolution chop than the FIM...

Little bit steeper lapse rates on the LCH sounding than yesterday, and again calm winds at IAH, and a touch higher PW, I think we see a tad more coverage of late day seabreeze type activity locally in SE Texas.

LCH.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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HGX has their doubts the storms will survive that long, but one has to credit the NAM for persistence.

Yesterday wasn't a bad day locally for some, judging by radar. Impressive TCU around, sadly, the seabreeze was a bit further inland before they started producing. CRP has a juicer sounding than LCH. Morning cu down the coast is getting closer. A convergence line of some kind is offshore Louisiana, still drifting South. Might explain West winds at LCH below 950 mb and lack of cu yet on satellite HOU area and Eastward.

I'd expect more shower activity in the Big Country based on satellite, but radar is somewhat unimpressive out there.

post-138-0-92226300-1309617754.jpg

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
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I see rotation on the Montgomery County severe cell. ~30ºF T/Td spread would seem to mean touchdown is unlikely of anything.

I haven't had a severe t-stom at my house in years...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

628 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

SPLENDORA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...AND MOVING WEST AT

5 MPH. THIS STORM MAY COLLIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM

NEAR PORTER HIEGHTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO WOODBRANCH...ROMAN FOREST...PORTER HEIGHTS AND PATTON

VILLAGE.

Edit to add at 7 pm...

Absolutely not moving. Cheesing me off. But I think its raining in the San Jacinto watershed.

post-138-0-58562100-1309650424.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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No rain, but gesstimate the winds just gusted 30 to 40 knots. Lots of dust, trres whipping. Almost as windy as outside in Ike before the first serious rain chased me inside.

And radar shows the cell is finally moving (actually probably propagating behind that gust front) Southward into Harris County down I-45.

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Srain

Srain

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While LA and E TX have been receiving some badly needed showers/storms the past couple of day, better chances may well be ahead as deep tropical moisture is poised to surge N from the Wesetrn Caribbean toward the end of the week. There is a weak Upper Level distubance in the Central Gulf that is slowly translating W. Perhaps some increased rain chances for more of the area as we end the week.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

After receiving 1.8" from 09/25/2010-06/25/2011, 4.6" fell in 6 days. The accumulated 6.4" is still a little less than half of normal for the same period, but it's a huge relief, and most of the drought stricken area of the country was hit by rain. Many areas, especially the Tampico area was in it's worst drought in over 40 years...now that area is slightly above normal now :S. Hopefully the time for TX (and N MX/AZ) will come soon, with no damage to Popo's beach house.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Came back fairly early from the GLS. A nice thunderstorm developed somewhere to the North of the island yesterday, probably not as far North as my house. Breezy and clear behind the sea breeze front.

BTW, water temps near 30ºC are mighty comfortable, but standing up and exposing the upper body to fresh breezes and low 20s dewpoints provides abundant evaporational cooling.

Boundary apparent on radar, but aside from one cell that developed and died near BW 8 and US 59 in SW Harris County, most action is further East near Louisiana or along a plethora of slow moving boundaries NW of DFW. Arkansas and SE Oklahoma look bust as well, and a 40 to 50ºF T/Td spread up there, gusty winds a plenty.

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Srain

Srain

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I had a very nice view of the Space Station this evening as it traveled across SE TX...sad to see an era pass on Friday (weather permitting) with the launch of Atlantis...:(

ISS Mon Jul 04/09:11 PM 4 60 30 above NNW 16 above ESE

Astronauts Arrive at Kennedy for Final Countdown

Mon, 04 Jul 2011 01:58:56 PM CDT

On the Fourth of July, the four STS-135 crew members arrived in two T-38 jets at NASA Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility at approximately 2:30 p.m. EDT. Commander Chris Ferguson, Pilot Doug Hurley and Mission Specialists Sandy Magnus and Rex Walheim spoke to media before being transported to the Astronaut Crew Quarters in Kennedy's Operations and Checkout Building, where they will spend the next few days training and spend time with family before liftoff.

"I think I speak for the whole crew in that we are delighted to be here after a very arduous nine month training flow and we're thrilled to finally be here in Florida for launch week," said Ferguson.

Launch of space shuttle Atlantis is scheduled for Friday, July 8, at 11:26 a.m.

http://www.nasa.gov/...main/index.html

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